Russia Monitor Monthly 7/23
Content
The Revival of the Normandy Format: Zelensky Faced with Difficult Choice
On August 26, at the closing press conference of the G7 summit in the city of Biarritz, President of France Emmanuel Macron announced that a meeting of the presidents of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France dedicated to the conflict in Ukraine will be held in September.
U.S. Advisor Bolton Visits Kyiv: Ukraine Warned Not Only Against Russia
John Bolton’s two-day visit to Kyiv concerned not only U.S.-Ukrainian bilateral relations, but also the Donbass problem and certain issues of Ukraine’s domestic politics. It can only be assumed that the U.S. President’s National Security Advisor agreed on an agenda for the upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky, who are both to participate in the 80-anniversary celebrations of the outbreak of the Second World War in Poland.
Turkey’s Erdogan Has Fallen Into Russian Trap
Russia has for several months disrespected a ceasefire deal on Syria’s rebel-controlled enclave of Idlib, reached earlier with Turkey, and continues to send support for forces loyal to Bashar Al-Assad. There have already been some cases of capturing Turkish observation posts in Idlib while whereabouts of Turkish battalions have been struck by air raids, possibly carried out also by Russian aircraft.
Shoigu’s Mission: Russia Holds Moldova Firmly In Its Grip
Fears are now being confirmed that Moldova will remain under greater influence from Moscow after latest government reshuffles. Although socialists have taken control over fewer ministries in Moldova’s new coalition government, they supervise most of the critical power structures, with President Igor Dodon having gotten actual authority over the Information and Security Service (SIS).
Netanyahu Looks for Israeli Voters in Ukraine
On August 18-19, Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu paid a two-day visit to Kyiv. This has been the first state visit of the head of government of the Jewish State to Ukraine in over 20 years. Aside from the fact that at present the bilateral relations between the two countries are very good, the trip was of great importance for Netanyahu especially in the context of Israeli domestic politics.
Putin Visits Helsinki: Finlandization 2.0?
On August 21, the President of Russia made an official visit to Helsinki. Its course confirms that the current Finnish authorities may well be counted among European countries advocating for a reset of relations with Moscow. It is particularly striking that President of Finland Sauli Niinistö and Vladimir Putin spoke almost in unison on the issue of medium-range cruise missiles, which have lately become one of the main problems in Russian-U.S. relations.
Mozambican President Visits Moscow, Rosneft Reaps Benefits
Russia keeps boosting cooperation with the countries of Africa. Leaders from the Dark Continent pay regular visits to the Kremlin, almost all of which are accompanied by inking bilateral economic deals with Russia. Oil giants benefit from the Kremlin’s policy: while Lukoil has recently gained the opportunity to enter the Republic of Congo, Rosneft has its door open to Mozambique.
Rosneft’s German Subsidiary Expands Its Activities
Rosneft Deutschland GmbH, the Germany-based downstream unit of Russia’s state-controlled Rosneft, launched direct crude imports to Germany after having acquired the relevant license in the second quarter of the year. Until now the firm had been involved in processing crude. Extending business activities of Rosneft’s subsidiary shows Moscow’s growing interest in developing its energy expansion on the German market.
NBC news quotes the Russia Monitor programme from Warsaw Institute
NBC News has published the article “Russia says it ‘chased away’ NATO fighter jet near defense minister; s plane” based on NATO pilot testimonies and on Russia Monitor think tank Warsaw Institute publications.
Russia Lies About 1939. Archives in the Service of the Kremlin
In the run-up for the 80th anniversary of the start of World War II, one should expect an increase in Russian propaganda activities. They consist in whitewashing history and selectively using archives to justify the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact while making attempts to shift responsibility for World War II onto Poland and its 1939 Western allies. Moscow says that the West yet again uses the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact as part of the “information warfare” campaign. The opposite is true, though.
Will Romania’s Ruling Coalition Crisis Lead to Establishing a Minority Government?
Ruling Coalition Crisis may equally lead to the ruling coalition being broken and establishing a minority government.
Fuel, Ships, Missiles? Russia Sends Support to Venezuela
Scheduled for August 21, a working visit by Venezuela’s Vice President Delcy Rodriguez to Moscow is yet another sign of ever-tightening cooperation between Russia and Venezuela. Only a few days before, Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino had made a trip to the Russian capital.
Central Asia in the Crosshairs: Russia Braces for Tsentr-2019 Drills
Russia’s Defense Ministry has announced that around 128,000 people, over 20,000 military vehicles, 600 aircraft and choppers, and up to 15 ships will be employed in the Tsentr-2019 exercise (also referred to as Center-2019) this September. Soldiers from the People’s Republic of China, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Republic of India, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Republic of Tajikistan, and the Republic of Uzbekistan will be engaged in the drills together with the Russians.
France’s Macron and Germany Are Competing For Russia’s Favor
France seeks to replace Germany in the role of the top European participant in the Donbas peace talks. This is how recent events can be interpreted, with both a meeting between Macron and Putin and trilateral phone calls on Donbas held between French, Russian and Ukrainian leaders.
Transneft Seeks Greater Control Over Oil Delivery System
Nikolai Tokarev, the head of Russia’s state-controlled pipeline operator Transneft, has suggested Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev make his company responsible for operational control over raw material supplies being admitted into the pipeline system. The proposals concern greater control over crude oil delivery and acceptance points (CODAP), most of which remain in the hands of the oil companies. Transneft, for its part, has argued that while it is incapable of overseeing what kind of oil is injected to the system, it can no longer take responsibility for damages such as those incurred by the Druzhba contamination crisis in April 2019. But there is no knowing how oil firms will receive Tokarev’s demands.
No Chance of Breakthrough on Nagorno-Karabakh
Another round of talks on Nagorno-Karabakh was held in June in Washington, bringing together the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan to discuss peaceful solutions to the thirty-year-long armed conflict in the region. Although June saw a relatively quiet situation on the front line, soldiers still die in sporadic battles fought on both sides. But is U.S. diplomacy likely to help establish peace in the Caucasus?
Russia Reduces Oil Export Duties
Starting on September 1, 2019, Russia will apply a new adjustment reducing its crude exports duties by $3.4 per ton, the Russian Finance Ministry has informed. The government has decided to minimize duty tariffs from petroleum products while remaining at zero these for liquefied gas.
Syria’s Regime and Its Russian Ally Slaughter Refugees in the Country’s Idlib Enclave
Though a truce is formally in force, with a Russian-Turkish buffer zone being supposed to protect the region’s inhabitants, forces loyal to Syria’s Bashar al-Assad are advancing towards further areas of the rebel-held enclave in northwestern Syria. Russian and Syrian air forces are ruthless in implementing their scorched-earth tactics in the country’s last rebel-controlled bastion
Zelensky’s Flawed Choice of Tactics in the Donbass
Another phone call with the Kremlin, strange words about the death of Ukrainian soldiers in the Donbass, a request addressed to the French president regarding talks in the Normandy format – all of this does not bring Ukraine closer to ending the war in the Donbass. Volodymyr Zelensky seems to be trying to seize the initiative, however, his diplomatic efforts come off as chaotic and, in fact, further the Kremlin’s political goals.
Nothing New Under the Sun: Russia Sends Its Strategic Bombers to Chukotka
Two Russian Tupolev Tu-160 strategic bombers performed an eight-hour non-stop flight from their Saratov home base to Anadyr airfield in Russia’s Chukotka Region near the U.S. State of Alaska, covering over 6,000 kilometers, the Russian Defense Ministry informed on August 14.
Warsaw Institute
