Russia Monitor Monthly 2/23
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Event Summary: NATO in the 21st Century
On April 26, 2021, the think-tank Warsaw Institute had the honor of organizing the Internet event ” NATO in the 21st century: Preparing the Alliance for the challenges of today and tomorrow” which concerned updating the challenges posed by NATO in the 21st century. The guest of Tomasz Kijewski, President of the Warsaw Institute, was Daniel Kochis, Senior Policy Analyst in European Affairs, The Heritage Foundation.
More Countries Expel Russian Diplomats in Solidarity with Czech Republic
Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are among states that on April 22 and 23 said they had declared persona non grata seven Russian diplomats in solidarity with the Czech Republic that accused Russian secret services of being behind a fatal explosion at an arms depot in 2014. The government in Prague urged NATO and the EU to take similar steps against Russian intelligence agents operating under diplomatic cover as those three years ago after the attempted poisoning of Sergei Skripal.
Russia’s FSB Aircraft Stirs Tensions Between Russia and Colombia
Russia’s military and intelligence activities in Moscow-friendly states neighboring the Caribbean Sea raise concern in others as Russia breaks the existing rules. The latest example is a protest note from Colombia whose airspace was violated by a Russian aircraft.
Huawei Scandal in the Netherlands Diminishes its Prospects in Europe
A row over Huawei’s unrestricted access to sensitive data and conversations of millions of users, potentially including Dutch Premier and Ministers, erupted in the Netherlands in mid-April. The reports aggravate an already problematic situation of the company in Europe – in 2019-2020 Washington imposed stiff sanctions on sales of its hardware and software. The actions of Donald Trump’s administration have limited the competitiveness of Huawei’s smartphones. The US diplomatic offensive and growing concern of the EU members about intelligence threats have reduced firm’s chances to play a leading role in the construction 5G infrastructure in the region.
Pulaski, Kosciuszko and the Memory of the Sons of Liberty
Casimir Pulaski Day was celebrated in Illinois on March 1, 2021. This legal holiday was established on June 20, 1977 to commemorate Casimir Pulaski, a hero of the American Revolutionary War. This day is a symbol and a tribute of the American people to all the Poles who took part in the American War of Independence. What do we know about the involvement of Polish volunteers in the Revolutionary War and are those events remembered in light of ongoing sociocultural changes, more than 240 years after Pulaski’s death?
Tensions rise in the Black Sea. Russia may blockade Ukraine’s ports
The entire Black Sea Fleet, 15 units of the Caspian Flotilla, 5 units of the Northern Fleet and the Baltic Fleet – the concentration of Russian naval forces in the waters bordering Ukraine translates into a further escalation of tensions in this part of Europe. It’s possible that it is at sea that Moscow is planning the most important part of the operation against Ukraine.
NATO in the 21st Century: Preparing the Alliance for the Challenges of Today and Tomorrow
Warsaw Institute & The Warsaw Institute Review quartely with The Heritage Foundation have an honour to invite you to our upcoming online Expert Interview: “NATO in the 21st Century: Preparing the Alliance for the Challenges of Today and Tomorrow” on Monday, April 26th, 2021, 11:00 am ET | 5 pm CEST.
17+1 Summit: The Difficult Future of the Initiative – Podcast
Despite growing trade and good relations between the presidents of the two countries, communication between Warsaw and Beijing has stalled for some time. Following a period of dynamic development of relationships between 2008 and 2016, the cooperation has weakened under the rule of the United Right (Polish: Zjednoczona Prawica).
BREXIT, Polish-British cooperation and Polish diaspora in Great Britain – interview with the Polish Ambassador to Great Britain and Northern Ireland
On April 14, 2021, the Warsaw Institute think tank, together with The Warsaw Institute Review quarterly, had the honor of hosting another online event from the Diplomacy Talks Series. The title of the discussion, moderated by the president of the Warsaw Institute, Tomasz Kijewski, was “BREXIT and its importance for Europe and the Polish diaspora in Great Britain and Northern Ireland”. Ambassador dr hab. Arkady Rzegocki presented his assessment of the impact of BREXIT on the cooperation of Great Britain with Poland, the European Union and the region of Central and Eastern Europe.
US Intelligence Report – China’s Threat
On April 13, 2021, the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) released an unclassified annual report on global threats to US national security to Congress. China’s efforts to expand its growing influence, pose one of the greatest threats to America.
US Announces $125 Million Aid Package for Ukraine, Condemns Russia
Since 2014, the United States has allocated over $2 billion in security assistance to Ukraine. In the context of globally strained relations with Russia, the Biden administration continues to support the authorities in Kyiv to advance its Euro-Atlantic aspirations.
Three Possible Scenarios For Russia’s Oil Production
Russia’s oil production will grow for some ten years while noting a decline afterward, according to the Energy Ministry estimate drafting oil production in the country. The difference is in the possible scale of the increase and that of the decline and when the peak will take place.
Russia Reshuffles Governors Ahead of Elections. Shoigu Triumphs
Russia’s oil production will grow for some ten years while noting a decline afterward, according to the Energy Ministry estimate drafting oil production in the country. The difference is in the possible scale of the increase and that of the decline and when the peak will take place.
A Stab in Ukraine’s Back? Russian Exercises in Breakaway Transnistria
With the number of Russian troops hoarding on Ukraine’s border and the growing threat of war, Kyiv is in a somewhat perilous position. It sees threats alongside its whole eastern border with Russia, as well as in the north (from Belarus), and in the south as the Russian forces sit in Crimea whereas a far stronger Russian flotilla is operating in the Black Sea.
Tensions in the Black Sea: Turkey Supports Ukraine
Countries bordering the Black Sea are carefully observing tensions going up between Russia and Ukraine and the threat of war posed by the former state. It is notably Turkey that has in recent years built cordial ties with Russia. Also, it is a NATO member and––most importantly––it has boosted its position throughout the region.
The Union of Poles in Belarus – the Main Enemy of the Regime
Since the beginning of its existence (1990), the Union of Poles in Belarus (UPB) was the key independent center which gathered people with Polish roots and those who spoke Polish. In Belarus, Poles constitute around 4% of the whole population and the UPB has 30,000 members, thus being one of the largest non-governmental organizations in this country. Its activities included educating children in Polish, publishing magazines in this language (for instance, Głos znad Niemna) as well as maintaining extensive contacts with Poland in cultural and social dimensions.
South Korean Foreign Minister Visits China
On March 29, 2021, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China and the Secretariat General of the Arab League held a video conference on data security. During it, a joint agreement on China-Arab cooperation in this field was signed.
Putin Signs Law Allowing Him To Stay In Power Until 2036
Two Russian diplomats flew back to Moscow on April 1 as Italy expelled them shortly before. Employees of the Russian embassy’s military attache were involved in a spy scandal as an Italian naval officer was detained on March 30 on spying charges, marking the most serious espionage incident since the Cold War. This may bring severe consequences since Italy is one of the countries within the European Union and NATO with the warmest relations with Russia. Another nation having such a cordial link to Russia is Bulgaria whose authorities smashed a Russian spy ring a dozen or so days ago.
Digital Cooperation between China and the Arab League
On March 29, 2021, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China and the Secretariat General of the Arab League held a video conference on data security. During it, a joint agreement on China-Arab cooperation in this field was signed.
Who Are Ukraine’s Reliable and Fake Allies
A friend in need is a friend indeed, a popular saying goes. Growing tensions between Moscow and Kyiv and the mounting threat to Ukraine make a good test checking true intentions of Kyiv’s Western partners.
Warsaw Institute
