Russia Monitor Monthly 7/23
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Putin-Erdogan Meeting: Turkey Shifts Towards Russia
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrived in Russia for his third meeting (and second in Moscow) this year with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. During his trip, the Turkish head of state confirmed his intention to purchase Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile system despite the mounting pressure from both Washington and NATO allied countries.
LNG and Northern Sea Route: Putin Sets Goals for the Arctic
Russian President Vladimir Putin has outlined general plans for the Arctic expansion. Speaking at the International Arctic Forum in St. Petersburg, Putin committed to developing naval ports and routes while expanding the energy sector (LNG) and the Northern Sea Route as a safe and economically viable route for international maritime shipping.
Estonia: Minority Government or Exotic Coalition?
Although it has been over a month since parliamentary elections were held in Estonia, a new government still has not been formed. Contrary to earlier expectations, the two largest parties in the new Riigikogu (Parliament of Estonia) have not reached an agreement. What is more, it seems very likely that the victorious Reform Party will end up in the opposition.
Russia Seeks to Boost Oil Output Despite OPEC+ Deal
Facing the pressure from Russia’s major oil producers, with state-run Rosneft at the forefront, the government will probably be likely to boost production starting from the middle of the year.
Netanyahu Heads to Moscow As Israelis Prepare for Elections
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visit to Moscow five days before parliamentary elections, confirmed Vladimir Putin’s interest in keeping the Israeli politician in power. Also, the Russian army has recently discovered in Syria the remains of an Israeli soldier missing since the 1982 Lebanon War.
Washington Favors the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline
Last week, the U.S. presidential administration used the holiday of Nowruz, a traditional spring festival with roots in ancient Persia celebrated by the Turkmen population, to promote its own interests. In a congratulatory letter to Turkmen President, Donald Trump expressed hopes that local gas supplies will be soon shipped to Europe, suggesting Washington’s interest in boosting bilateral cooperation in this regard.
NATO–Russia Relations: The Return of the Enemy
Even after a political rapprochement between Russia and NATO, Moscow saw the Alliance in terms of a hostile institution and expressed marginal interest in promoting greater cooperation within its structures. Endeavors to bring Russia and NATO closer, while deepening their mutual ties, were aimed at boosting the Kremlin’s influence on the Alliance’s activities.
Local and State Authorities Foster Novatek’s LNG Expansion
Investments led by Russian Novatek are backed both by the Kremlin and regional authorities. The company’s plans to set up further LNG facilities in the Russian Far North is to serve purposes like: increase LNG output in the country and provide an economic stimulus to the areas located in the close neighborhood of the Northern Sea Route.
Vote of No Confidence For Ukraine’s Political Class
As anticipated, Volodymyr Zelensky and Petro Poroshenko have advanced to the second round of the presidential elections in Ukraine. The situation of the current president is difficult, but not hopeless. This means that the next three weeks will probably turn into a true bruising election battle.
Russia Is Waiting for the Second Round of Ukraine’s Presidential Election
According to the Russian media and a certain group of politicians, Moscow may potentially deny recognizing the final results of the recent presidential election in Ukraine. Such a scenario seems more likely if Petro Poroshenko is elected for his second term of office yet from the Kremlin’s perspective, none of the two competitors who have entered the second round is favorable for Russia’s interests.
President Klaus Iohannis Appeals For a Referendum
The politician from the National Liberal Party (PNL) wants Romanians to decide on the necessity of the judiciary reforms during the elections to the European Parliament. The President’s decision is connected with his conflict with the left-wing PSD-ALDE government which has lasted almost from the beginning of his term.
Rosneft’s Sechin Gains Special Position in the Kremlin
This is yet another chapter of Russia’s oil price-fixing scandal. On March 19, officers of Russian services entered the headquarters of the state’s largest oil traders where they carried out searches. As initially expected, these have hit all the entities that were allegedly found guilty of recent drastic increases in oil prices.
Romanian Candidate For European Public Prosecutor With Charges
This is another part of the conflict between Laura Codruța Kövesi and the Romanian government. The former chief of the anticorruption services is strongly supported by the European elites. Meanwhile, several court procedures are being held against her. Kövesi claims that this is an attempt of blocking her candidacy for the President of the European Public Prosecutor’s Office.
Raid in Crimea: Russia’s FSB Hits Tatars
Mass searches and arrests of several dozen Crimean Tatar activists have been the largest operation of Russia’s FSB in Crimea for months. It is no coincidence that this had happened a few days before the presidential elections in Ukraine. Over the last months, various repressions in the Russian-annexed Crimean peninsula have been part of the so-called “tightening” of the Kremlin’s internal policy.
Russian Crude Oil: How Much and For How Long?
Russia is expected to experience a significant drop in oil production within the next dozen or so years, according to estimates by international agencies, independent energy experts and Russian state institutions. Given the state budget’s reliance on incomes from exporting oil, Moscow may soon apprehend unfavorable forecasts for the upcoming years.
Russia’s Siloviki Rule the Country
Recent detainments of a former minister Mikhail Abyzov and an ex-governor Viktor Ishayev were aimed to undermine Russia’s “liberal” camp while warning regional elites, fitting into the Kremlin’s ever-tightening course in its domestic policy. Not only does the regime suppress the opposition but it is also capable of hitting potential weak links within its own milieu.
Russia Opts For Confrontational Course in Venezuela
Sending Russian forces in Venezuela served a dual purpose: on the one hand showing Moscow’s full support for the Maduro regime while discouraging its enemies from launching a military intervention, and, on the other, carrying cybersecurity specialists to Venezuelan soil.
Night Wolves in Finland, Defence Chief Warns Against Russia
The Night Wolves, a Russian motorcycle club which is friends with Vladimir Putin and has been subject to U.S. sanctions, started operating in Finland at the beginning of the year. This is yet another manifestation of Russia’s hybrid activities in this Nordic country and a warning signal for Finnish security services, which have recently been very preoccupied with the increased activity of Russian agents.
U.S.-Sourced LNG Gives Gazprom Sleepless Nights
Russian state-run gas giant makes it difficult to at least secure its gas supplies to Europe as recorded last year. Gazprom’s huge challenge is related, in addition to the drop in gas demand and plummeting gas prices, also to growing import of liquefied natural gas into the European market. This comes as an aftermath of changes in the Asian market and U.S. ever-increasing export capabilities.
Final “NO” For Partnerships in Romania
Firstly the referendum, now the Senate’s decision. The possibility of registering partnerships and same-sex marriages was dismissed in Romania.
Warsaw Institute
