RUSSIA MONITOR MONTHLY 05/2021
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Russia’s Baltic LNG: Gazprom Stays, Shell Quits, Rotenberg Brothers Enter
Russia’s Baltic LNG has recently experienced a sudden and radical change in the line-up of partners committed to implementing the gas project. Russia’s state-owned Gazprom has removed its European partner from a joint investment, yet welcoming a firm run by the Rotenberg brothers.
U.S. Challenge in the Arctic
In recent weeks, Russia has issued a set of declarations, all of which merely confirmed the Kremlin’s intentions for the Arctic region. Of course, Moscow’s activity remains under the close watch of Washington whose officials are now finalizing the U.S. national strategy for the Arctic. The United States needs to focus its attention both on Russia and China, the latter of which has increasingly emphasized its presence in the Arctic.
Putin-Kim Summit: What Advantages for the Kremlin?
North Korean leader will meet the Russian president for the first time, which is what seems most important about the negotiations scheduled to take place in the Russian city of Vladivostok. Yet no one should expect any groundbreaking conclusions to be made during the summit, a fact that even Kremlin officials seem aware of. This event should, however, be viewed in a general context of Russian-U.S. relations.
Venice Commission to Visit Romania in Late April
Representatives of the Venice Commission have announced that they are going to discuss ideas for changes in the judiciary and the penal code with Romania’s authorities. Their visit just happens to coincide with the dismissal of the Minister of Justice who exposed the behind-the-scenes process of implementing reforms carried out by the ruling PSD-ALDE coalition.
Russian-Syrian Talks: Moscow Strengthens Military Presence in Syria
Russia is set to finalize by the end of April a deal to lease Syria’s sea port of Tartus for 49 years while the upcoming round of peace talks within the framework of Astana Format is scheduled to take place in Kazakhstan. Both these topics have been covered during recent discussions held between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and a Russian delegation.
Moscow Is Escalating Anti-Western Rhetoric
Traditionally, the annual Moscow Conference on International Security serves as a forum for revealing anti-Western rhetoric. Seen in a way as a competitive event to the Munich conference, the summit was attended by Russia’s allies from all over the world. Participants of the conference voiced sharp criticism over NATO’s activities, including its latest efforts to strengthen its eastern flank.
A Russian Game with the New President of Ukraine
The victory of Volodymyr Zelensky in the presidential elections in Ukraine is a better piece of news for Moscow than the possible re-election of Petro Poroshenko. From the Kremlin’s point of view, the current president is “a party of war” and the future one is an unknown. Even though Moscow is cautious about the situation in Kiev, it is visible that they are hoping for a new beginning of the relations with Ukraine.
A Controversial Visit: President of Estonia Meets with Putin at the Kremlin
The Moscow meeting between Kersti Kaljulaid and Vladimir Putin has put an end to Russia’s long-time diplomatic isolation from the NATO member states that are heavily exposed to the Russian threat, namely the three Baltic states. Not only has the visit of the Estonian president attracted a lot of criticism in her home country, but it has also pushed many to question the goals and the general meaning behind such a meeting.
President Zelensky. The Beginning of the Big Game
In accordance with expectations and polls, Volodymyr Zelensky probably won the second round of the presidential elections in Ukraine. What can be a little surprising is the magnitude of the victory: almost three-quarters of voters voted for Zelensky and only one in four voted for his rival.
Putin Announces End of Compulsory Military Service in Russia
Vladimir Putin pledged his intention to abolish military conscription in Russia, yet saying that both time and sufficient funds will be necessary to carry out such a revolution. Putin’s declaration is “nothing new under the sun” as the Russian leader has reemphasized his commitment at least several times. None of these promises have been kept so far as the Russian army’s professionalization has emerged as an impractical undertaking.
Western Balkans: Infrastructure and Energy From a Geopolitical Perspective
An international conference “Western Balkans: Infrastructure and energy from a geopolitical perspective” will take place at the University of Warsaw on May 29, 2019, to mark Poland’s presidency of the Berlin Process. The event will be held under the auspices of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland and co-organized by geopolitical quarterly “The Warsaw Institute Review”.
China’s Influence in Balkans and Central and Eastern Europe
Launched seven years ago, the sub-regional cooperation 16+1 format, aimed at boosting economic partnership between China and its partners in the Balkans and Central and Eastern Europe encounters, has yet been developing with varying degrees of success. So far, countries such as Hungary, Albania, Bosnia, and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia have taken most from the project.
Four Romanian Soldiers Injured in the Afghanistan Mission
The incident happened last weekend in the Kandahar province where an improvised explosive device was detonated. After the explosion, soldiers were shot by the terrorists.
Russian in Estonian Uniform: Once Decorated, Now Suspected of Treason
The Estonian Internal Security Service (Estonian: Kaitsepolitsei, KAPO for short) announced that it has detained its former officer suspected of spying for Russia. The man is a Russian who used to serve in the police and KAPO after Estonia regained its independence. He was once a highly-regarded officer who decided to leave the service in 2012. It seems very likely that shortly afterwards he was recruited by Russia’s intelligence agency.
Gazprom’s Seleznev Fired Amid Corruption Charges
Kirill Seleznev, a close associate of Gazprom’s CEO Alexey Miller and Director General of Gazprom Mezhregiongaz, has been relieved of his post as a Gazprom board member. Seleznev’s dismissal may emerge as an outcome of the infamous Arashukov case, having links to the recent decision to relieve Chechnya’s gas debts. He is the fourth member of Gazprom’s management board to have been sacked over the past few weeks.
Kremlin’s Bluff, or Russian Military Presence in Venezuela
About 100 troops and 35 tons of mysterious cargo were offloaded from Russian military aircraft after they landed in Venezuela. If the Kremlin had not decided to perform the operation in broad daylight, it might have been meant Moscow’s support for the Maduro regime, also in its fight against Venezuelan opposition.
Russian Fleet Holds Military Drills in the North Atlantic
Nuclear drills carried out by Russia near Norway’s Lofoten archipelago confirms Moscow’s intention to expand its military activities to the Norwegian Sea, able to pose a threat to NATO strategic maritime corridor running through the UK, Iceland, and Greenland. Oslo has been aware of a growing threat from Russia while boosting its military forces in northern Norway for the fear of land-attack operations from the Russian Kola Peninsula.
Zelensky Is Heading For The Presidency
Everything indicates that a three weeks gap between the first and the second round of the elections in Ukraine is too short for Petro Poroshenko to catch up Volodymyr Zelensky. The President explained that earlier he had been focused on the competition with Yulia Tymoshenko to manage to reach the second round. After March 31, he has been doing everything to compete with Zelensky.
Mayor of Riga Dismissed from Office: Polish Clue, Russian Failure
Although a several month-long anti-corruption investigation in Latvia’s capital city has not yet come to an end, the Mayor of Riga has already fallen victim to the enquiry. The decision to dismiss Nils Ušakovs from office was made by the Minister for Environmental Protection and Regional Development of Latvia, who is granted such a power by law.
Sudan Coup: What’s Next with Russian “Advisers”?
Although the Sudanese army has seized power in the country, this has not put an end to social unrest that sparked a few months before. Sudan’s dictator Omar al-Bashir has been put under house arrest while the opposition did not allow a military junta to assume power in the country. Bashir’s political demise may thus put an end to Moscow’s hopes for making Sudan its strategic stronghold in East Africa.
Warsaw Institute
