Russia Monitor Monthly 4/23
Content
Another Russian Oil Giant Resumes Operations In Libya
Russian oil producer Tatneft is ready to resume oil production in Libya and the company’s specialists are already working on this matter locally. Furthermore, not only does the giant wish to restart work abandoned as hostilities broke out in the country, but it is also looking for new opportunities for exploration. The Libyan government is encouraging Russian companies to come back to the country, seeking to rebuild economic ties both states had enjoyed in the Gaddafi era.
Ally Or Vassal: Armenia Is Forced To Look For Russian Help
Armenia opted for an alliance with Russia, hoping that Moscow would protect it against the fall of the Soviet Union and taking control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region alongside neighboring Azerbaijani enclaves. For decades, Russia has been the sole, albeit disloyal, ally of Yerevan, as was the case last fall when Armenia suffered defeat in the mountainous enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. At that time, Turkey was actively supporting Azerbaijan. Russia did not offer its support to Armenia but responded with diplomatic measures only when the ex-Soviet country was about to surrender. Russian troops were deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh to secure the deal. Being under pressure from both Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenia is more prone to agree on a bigger Russian presence. And that was what Moscow was about.
Russian Passport Holders In Donbas May Vote In Duma Elections
Russian passport holders in parts of eastern Ukraine that are controlled by Russia-backed separatists will be able to vote in the Russian parliamentary elections in September. According to a resolution adopted by Russia’s Central Election Commission on July 20, any person willing to do so will have to register and cast their vote online. This is a step towards incorporating Donbas and part of the Kremlin’s part to improve the election result of the ruling party.
Russia Displays Military Power In Central Asia
At least two large-scale military drills between Russia and its partners near the Afghan border serve as a wake-up call to the Taliban. Although the Taliban told Moscow they would not invade Russia’s Central Asian allies, for the Kremlin, it is better safe than sorry. It is also important for Russia to reassure its allies hence Moscow’s decision to perform drills in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
Russia Plays Double Game in Afghanistan
Moscow is involved in military drills in Central Asia, pledging support to its allies in case of Islamist aggression from the south. At the same time, the Russian foreign ministry praised the Taliban for their territorial gains in northern Afghanistan, labeling them as a stabilizing factor. This is not an obstacle to maintain friendly ties with the government in Kabul or to suggest the United States could somewhat use Russian facilities in Central Asia. Moscow is making efforts to carve out a robust position in Afghanistan once the civil war is over in the country.
Chinese Foreign Ministry Criticizes the Ambivalent Position of the EU towards the PRC
During the meeting with the Maltese Minister of Foreign Affairs Evarist Bartolo, held on July 23 in the Chinese city of Chengdu, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressed his doubts about the European Union’s multiple policies towards the People’s Republic of China.
Russia Sends Aid To Cuba Regime
Anti-government protests in Cuba pose a challenge to Russia. If the Communist regime collapsed, Moscow would lose a crucial ally in Latin America and its security foothold where the Kremlin enjoys influence, too.
Russia Makes More Aggressive Moves In Donbas
Tensions go high along the demarcation line in Donbas while there are more and more cases of the exchange of fire, with an increase in the number of wounded Ukrainian soldiers. In addition, Russia reportedly amasses heavy weaponry in the areas controlled by Moscow-loyal fighters. If the Kremlin launches a new offensive against Ukraine this summer, the eastern region of Donbas will certainly serve a pivotal role in the conflict.
Putin Warns Of Russia’s Hypersonic Nuclear Weapons At Naval Parade
An annual parade of warships in the port city of St. Petersburg is traditionally intended to showcase Russia’s military strength. Nonetheless, this does not seem so for the country’s navy as Russia still lags far behind some world powers, including the United States as well as the United Kingdom and China. This year, Putin used a Navy Day parade to deliver his latest reminder of Russia’s military muscle and its successful attempts to develop new weapons, also cutting-edge hypersonics.
35 years after Chernobyl: Eastern Europe’s Nuclear Energy Landscape
The year 2021 marks the 35th anniversary of the disaster in the nuclear power plant (NPP) of Chernobyl. It is often described as the worst nuclear accident known to humanity, with its fatality rates reaching the five-digit numbers. Despite being badly affected by the accident, Russia is now notorious for dominating the nuclear energy market in Eastern Europe. Three and a half decades after the fallout seems an opportune time to critically reflect on the current state of the nuclear energy landscape in Eastern Europe and Russia’s central role within it.
Russia Sells Tigr Armored Vehicles And Other Military Products To Africa
Russian-made military equipment and weapons are relatively cheap so they attract a great deal of interest in less wealthy countries, for instance in Africa. The MAKS-2021 International Aviation and Space Salon has turned out to be a tremendous opportunity to promote Russian military hardware and thus make inroads into the continent’s defense market.
U.S. Concessions On Nord Stream 2 Encourage Russia To Go To War
A U.S.-German deal on the Russian natural gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 deals a blow to the energy security of Eastern Europe, notably Ukraine, whose military security is at stake, too. As the Joe Biden administration is making new concessions to Russia while France and Germany show a Moscow-friendly attitude, Vladimir Putin feels encouraged to take further aggressive action, also militarily. At the same time, the deal offers no security guarantee to Kyiv.
Tomasz Kijewski: I think it is a great time to speed up Georgia’s European integration process
On July 24, 2021, Tomasz Kijewski, president of the Warsaw Institute, gave an interview to EuropeTime.eu about the July 19 conference in Batumi.
Russian FSB Detains Estonian Consul
Russia is keeping up with the espionage and diplomatic war it has waged against Western states. This time Moscow hit Estonia, and more precisely its St. Petersburg-based consul. The incident resembles a provocation staged against a Ukrainian consul a few months ago. Russian counterintelligence outlets thus can take similar steps to target Russian-based diplomats of any state that Moscow recognizes as hostile.
Iranian Parliament and its Political Role after the Recent Elections
The recent parliamentary elections showed nearly all the peculiarities of the Iranian political system, which will shape the domestic political scene for a long time.
Will the Chinese Replace the Americans in Afghanistan?
The impending deadline for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan is not only a sign of an end of an era in US foreign policy, but could also be significant in terms of Chinese involvement in the region.
OPEC+ Signs Deal To Raise Oil Output Each Month
Oil producers agreed to increase production at a July 18 meeting by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) from August. The decision will be beneficial to Russia since its daily oil output is projected to rise by 500,000 barrels beginning in May 2022. The two previous OPEC+ meetings were called off as the United Arab Emirates rejected a proposal.
Warsaw Institute at BATUMI INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE 2021
On July 19, 2021, the International Conference in Batumi was held, with participation of the president of Georgia Salome Zourabichvili, Giorgian prime minister Irakli Garibashvili, the president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Moldova Maia Sandu and Charles Michel, President of the European Council. One of the key speakers was also the president of the Warsaw Institute Tomasz Kijewski, who has travelled to Batumi, Georgia to participate in the conference organized by Griogria’s Ministry of Foreign Affaires. on the margin of the conference Warsaw Institute’s representative arranged also several meetings on cooperation with governmental and non-governmental institutions and other stakeholders (President of Ukraine, members of parliament of Georgia, office of President of Moldova, think tanks and Georgian media).
Tensions Go High in Donbas As Russia Breaches Truce
Russia is violating truce in the east of Ukraine as tensions are on the rise on the frontline since late June. Despite the deal in force for a year now, Russian forces and pro-Russian rebels keep firing at Ukrainian positions. The Ukrainian army saw some casualties; there were some wounded, too.
China’s Foreign Minister Meets with Deputy Prime Minister of Belarus
The Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi met with the First Deputy Prime Minister of Belarus Nikolai Snopkov in Tashkent, Uzbekistan on July 15, 2021. Both sides reaffirmed very good relations and mutual support.
Warsaw Institute
