RUSSIA MONITOR MONTHLY 05/2021
Content
China’s Big Tech Crackdown
Since the beginning of 2020, the CCP has taken a number of steps aimed at restricting the freedom of action of the largest companies referred to as “big tech,” including in particular the Alibaba Group, managed by Jack Ma. Warnings of “disorderly expansion of capital” (资本无序扩张) and monopolistic practices have appeared in the official narrative of the authorities and state-owned media, although the stakes are much higher.
Russia, Germany Feel Determined to Complete Nord Stream 2
Neither the authors nor sponsors of the Baltic gas link seek to give up as Russia and Germany are making efforts to finish the Nord Stream 2 project roughly a year after the United States imposed sanctions on the project. The consortium completed laying pipes for the project in German waters several days after works had been resumed.
Over two decades of Poland in NATO – the path to membership and future prospects
On March 12, 1999, Poland became a full member of NATO – the most powerful collective defense organization in the world, currently comprising 30 countries. However, from the historical perspective, the path of our country to the membership in the North Atlantic Alliance was not easy and certain.
China-Russia Joint Aerial Patrol
The Russian and Chinese bombers held a joint patrol over the Western Pacific on Tuesday, December 22. It was another opportunity to demonstrate strategic cooperation in opposition to the West. The Chinese media enthusiastically covered the event.
Belarus, Russia Sign Gas Protocol
Russian gas giant Gazprom said it had signed a protocol with Belarus on how to calculate natural gas prices for gas supplies in 2021. Though the document does not say any exact figures, officials in Minsk said the agreed prices were “on a par with the levels in 2020 and the price this year was $127 per 1,000 cubic meters.” Gazprom yet seems the biggest winner of that battle.
EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment. What is Beijing’s Plan?
A breakthrough in the negotiations between Beijing and the European Commission, which have been continuing since 2012 and concerned the agreement on investment, occurred in mid-December. According to European and Chinese media, the agreement could possibly be reached by the end of 2020 or in early 2021.
Russia’s “December Laws:” The End of Russian Opposition?
Putin’s regime is steering an ever-sharper course in its domestic policy, with new legislative changes paving the way for more severe repression. The State Duma on December 23 approved a bill, under which any individual could be deemed “a foreign agent” if they receive material or monetary support from abroad.
Russian, Chinese Jets Do Joint Patrol, Spark Protests from South Korea and Japan
Over a dozen Russian and Chinese military aircraft conducted a joint patrol, yet another sign of ever-growing military ties between the two states. East Asian countries voiced concern over the incident as they noticed a threat in what Moscow and Beijing termed their joint patrol.
Cheaper Gas for Belarus? Moscow Dictates Terms of the Deal
The Russian government has accepted a draft agreement to provide Belarus with a loan of $1 billion in 2020 and 2021. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed a relevant decision on December 21. Meanwhile, Moscow has no intention of forgiving Minsk on any contentious economic and financial matters.
Public Opinion on China in European and V4 Countries
The November report “European public opinion on China in the age of COVID-19. Differences and common ground across the continent” prepared by the Central European Institute of Asian Studies (CEIAS), a Slovak think tank, presents interesting data on the attitudes of European citizens, including the members of the Visegrad Group (V4), towards China.
Gazprom, Lukoil Sign Deal to Jointly Develop Two Hydrocarbon Fields
Russian privately held oil producer Lukoil and state-controlled gas monopoly Gazprom agreed on the terms of their joint project to commercialize reserves of the Vaneyvisskoye and Layavozhskoye fields in the Nenets region. This is another joint venture within the strategic partnership between the two Russian energy giants.
Putin Addresses Generals: Arms Race, Hostile West
Russian President Vladimir Putin attended an annual meeting of the Defense Ministry Board. Two features arose from both his speech and that of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Firstly, Russian officials believe that updated weapons in the army are necessary to ensure the security of Russia as the country sees threats from the outside. By saying so, and secondly, they meant the United States and NATO.
Gazprom Pours Three Times as Much Money to Bring Gas to Chechnya
The Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov still enjoys a firm position in the Kremlin while being among Vladimir Putin’s most trusted people. The republic signed a deal with Gazprom, under which the Russian energy giant will build 1,300 kilometers of gas pipeline network, also in the remaining region that has not yet had access to gas.
Bulgaria Expels Russian Military Attaché for Spying for GRU
Bulgarian authorities expelled a senior diplomat in the Russian embassy in Sofia over alleged espionage. He is the sixth diplomat to be expelled by Bulgaria throughout 2020 for suspected espionage. The official had worked for the GRU military intelligence service and had been seeking sensitive military information, including on the U.S. military activity in Bulgaria.
Chinese Probe Returns from the Moon
Chang’e-5, the Chinese unmanned Moon probe, returned to Earth on Thursday, December 17. This event was widely reported and promoted in the Chinese media as the next step in the conquest of space. Simultaneously, its exploration is another field of strategic and propaganda rivalry with the United States.
Russia’s Rosgvardia Sets Foot in Belarus
From November on, the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) is allowed to carry out a wide range of operations on the territory of Belarus after Belarus and Russia had inked an appropriate deal. It was only after a month that Belarusian officials made it public. Possibly it was long ago that Russian riot police tasked with suppressing social unrest began to support Belarusian siloviki.
Russia Enters the Pakistan Gas Sector
A group of Russian Gazprom-led energy companies seek to invest $14 billion in the gas infrastructure in Pakistan, with two gas pipelines and underground storage facilities to be built. Russia will also send some gas commodities from its Iranian deposits to Pakistan as the nation needs more and more gas. The energy cooperation between these two is part of better ties between Moscow and Islamabad.
An Outline of the History of the Polish Underground State and the Tragic Fate of the Cursed Soldiers
During World War II, Poles created underground resistance structures, which were a worldwide phenomenon. They fulfilled nearly all functions of the state for the Poles struggling with the cruelty of the occupying forces. After the end of the war, the patriotic part of the nation, forming the Polish Underground State, continued the struggle for a free Poland until the 1960s. However, their tragic fate, especially that of the so-called cursed soldiers, was then determined by geopolitics.
Russia Struggles to Meet OPEC+ Oil Cuts
Russia noted a slight increase in its crude oil output in November 2020. It rose to 9.28 million barrels per day (bpd) in December from 9.26 million bpd in October, according to data from OPEC. Russia’s compliance with the OPEC+ oil production cuts in November likely stood at only 86 percent as the country slashed 1.72 million bpd from 2.007 million bpd.
Welcome to Cyberwar
Sponsored by the KGB, the world’s first ever cyber operation Cuckoo’s Egg took place in 1986 – as commissioned by the Soviet services. Two decades later, hacks became an inherent tool in a repertoire used by the conflicting states. While writing his famous phrase “Welcome to cyberwar” in September 2010, Ralph Langner began a brand-new era of armed conflict.
Warsaw Institute
