Russia Monitor Monthly 7/23
Content
Grzegorz Kuczyński on the arrest of Alexei Navalny
On Tuesday, 19th January 2021, the Warsaw Institute think tank interviewed Grzegorz Kuczyński, director of the Eurasia program and an expert on Russian politics. The conversation was devoted to the arrest of a Russian oppositionist, Alexei Navalny, who, after an unsuccessful attempt on his life and subsequent treatment in Berlin, decided to return to Moscow, aware of the inevitable repression of the Kremlin.
Why Navalny Returned to Russia
Russian opposition figure Alexey Navalny flew back to Russia from Germany, as earlier announced. He has been detained upon landing in Moscow. Now Navalny is likely to serve a long term in prison. But the whole story is not over yet, being rather the beginning of Navalny’s way to the top.
China Plans to Build the First University Campus in Hungary – Podcast
On December 16, 2019, the Minister for Innovation and Technology of Hungary – László Palkovics, and the rector of Fudan University – Xu Ningsheng, signed an agreement in Shanghai to establish the first foreign Fudan campus in Budapest. In mid-September 2020, there were also reports in the Hungarian media that the campus is to be completed by 2024 with a goal of educating 5-6 thousand students.
The Diplomatic Crisis in the Persian Gulf. Causes, Development, Resolution?
On Tuesday, January 5, 2021, it was announced that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt will restore diplomatic relations with Qatar and lift the blockade of this country that began in June 2017. Theoretically, the situation could be the beginning of the end of the diplomatic crisis between the close allies of the United States in the Gulf region, which has been dragging on for three and a half years
Nord Stream 2 Proponents Go On The Offensive
Business activities are now in place to complete the Russia-to-Germany gas link while being a political cover for the stance adopted by Germany and Russia. An example might be an interview with Germany’s former chancellor Gerhard Schroeder who defended Putin’s regime while accusing Poland – one of the top dangerous Nord Stream 2 opponents – of nurturing authoritarian attitudes.
Russian Military Locked in African Trap
A civil war erupted in the Central African Republic, whose Russia-friendly president has recently won re-election after his top challenger was barred from running for office. In response, he formed a broad coalition of rebel groupings. Despite support from UN forces and a few hundred Russian troops, the government in Bangui is helpless against the enemy.
Russia Quits Open Skies Treaty, Leaves Message for Biden
Russia said that it was pulling out of the Open Skies Treaty, an international accord allowing surveillance flights over military facilities, after the U.S. exit from the pact in November 2020. The timing might not be incidental while being an attempt to exert pressure on the incoming Biden administration.
Chinese Perspective on the Candidate for Pentagon Chief
US President-elect Joe Biden officially named the retired four-star General Lloyd Austin as his pick for the Secretary of Defense in December. According to the Chinese experts, he is a pragmatic candidate who is not focused on Asia and thanks to whom US-China relations can be improved.
The PLAAF Recruitment Video and the H-20 Bomber
In early January, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force released a recruitment video on Chinese social media to encourage young people to join the army. It is worth to note that the video clip features an outline of an aircraft, which, according to analysts, is the announced bomber of the future – H-20.
Beijing Announces Increased Engagement in Africa
Between January 4 and 9, 2021, the Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi embarked on his first diplomatic tour of the new year with stops in five African countries. The purpose of these visits was to maintain China’s role as the key partner of African countries with regard to the construction of new infrastructure as well as trade and financial cooperation.
A Summary of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
On December 1, 2020, the Azerbaijanis seized the Lachin District, which has been controlled by Armenians for the past quarter of a century. Earlier, on November 25, Azerbaijani troops took control of the Kalbajar District, connecting Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia, and five days earlier the Azerbaijanis seized the Agdam District.
China’s Foreign Policy in 2021
In an interview given to the Xinhua News Agency and the China Media Group in Beijing, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) Wang Yi talked about China’s foreign policy in 2021 and the fulfillment of its mission in 2020.
Russia’s FSB Gains New Privileges and Powers
The shameful failure of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) in the infamous Navalny case did not disgrace the country’s domestic security agency. Quite the contrary; the Kremlin is well aware of the more vulnerable FSB prompting a weaker Putin’s regime, with the service being a top pillar of his tenure.
Russia Suffers Defeat at the OPEC+ Summit
A group of major oil producers, known as OPEC+, have agreed to keep production steady in February and March. Some nations will reduce output while Russia and Kazakhstan will see a slight increase in their respective crude production. However, the energy market will note fewer oil supplies amid Saudi Arabia’s decision to voluntarily cut its production. Moscow thus has failed to convince other members of the cartel to boost output.
Xi Jinping’s New Year’s Address
New Year’s wishes are customary among the heads of states and it is no different in the People’s Republic of China. Xi Jinping used this opportunity to sum up the past year and talk about future plans. However, the topics he raised did not differ significantly from the ones in the last year’s speech, which highlights the current foundations of Chinese politics.
Energy Transformation in the Baltic Rim
On 14 December, the Baltic states and Poland signed a EUR 720 mln agreement within the Baltic Synchronisation Project. The aim is to integrate the electricity grids of the Baltic states with Europe in order to strengthen the region’s energy independence from third countries.
Jihadi Militants Target Russian Military in Syria
Recent days have brought a series of attacks against Russian military personnel in Syria. What should cause Russia’s alarm is that the first incident happened in the country’s northeast, far from its major hotbed in Idlib province.
Russia’s New Military District, Zapad Drills As 2021 Priority
On December 21, 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an executive order whereby the Northern Fleet became the country’s fifth military-administrative entity from January 1, 2021. It encompasses the former area of the Western Military District.
Are Military Drones the Future of the Chinese Army?
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs/UCAVs) are a vital part of China’s strategy for winning “intelligent conflicts,” which are increasingly based on information flow and enhanced situational awareness. Between 2010 and 2020, China introduced a large number of advanced systems of this kind, becoming one of the world leaders in this sector
Russia Gives Way to Turkey in the Caucasus
Dispatching the Turkish military to the Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire monitoring center in the areas that Azerbaijan claimed from Armenia comes as Ankara’s success while being a failure for Moscow. Russia is making efforts to cover up its defeat with some vague statements that came after the meeting between the Russian and Turkish foreign ministers.
Warsaw Institute
