Russia Monitor Monthly 7/23
Content
Russia’s Lukoil Interested in Kazakh Shelf
Russia’s oil company Lukoil is close to signing a contract with Kazakhstan’s oil and gas monopoly KazMunayGas to explore the Zhenis field located in the Kazakh part of the Caspian shelf. This is Lukoil’s other investment in the region as the company endeavored to extend its scope of activities in Kazakhstan.
Russia’s Siloviki Visit Mideast Capitals
Encouraged by a military victory, Russia is now attempting to retrieve its diplomatic status in an effort to relegitimize al-Assad’s regime worldwide in talks with Arab and Sunni countries. It appears that Moscow’s priority is to restore Syria’s full partnership in the Arab League, as exemplified by recent visits of Russia’s high-ranking security officials to the Middle East.
Russia’s Gazprom Dictates Its Own Terms in Caucasus
Russian Gazprom uses its dominant position in the region to enforce improper trade conditions for Georgia and Armenia. These two issues seem to be closely linked as gas shipments to Armenia, a Russian ally, need to flow through Georgia that has been in conflict with Moscow. Further, conducted against the Kremlin’s will, the change of the government in Yerevan will result in higher gas tariffs by 10%.
Putin Introduces Amendments to “Thieves in Law” Regulation
Russian President Vladimir Putin submitted a draft law to introduce a new article of “taking the highest position in the criminal hierarchy” to the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation. This aims at targeting “thieves in law” and leaders of organized criminal groups (OCG, Russian: OPG) who may face from 8 to 15 years in prison and a fine of up to 5 million roubles.
How Central European Countries Counter the Kremlin’s Hostile Actions: the Czech Republic’s and Poland’s Unfulfilled Potential
The Visegrad countries cannot find common ground in their attitude towards Russia, which is still disrupting international order and interfering in the domestic affairs of European countries.
Sweden is Preparing for the Russian Invasion
Stockholm sounded the alarm: Russia is preparing for a large-scale war and the aggressive policy of Moscow threatens Sweden as well. This is the reason for the political consensus to continue, or even increase the pace of the reconstruction of the Kingdom’s military potential. At least four factors point that Russia is preparing for a great conflict.
Putin versus Erdogan, or the Sochi Summit
A trilateral meeting held in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi was expected to break the deadlock over Syria’s thorniest problems, including the presence of terrorists in the rebel-held province of Idlib and the future of the Kurd-controlled zones following the U.S. withdrawal. However, the Astana triangle with the presence of Iran, Russia and Turkey, did not bear fruits, meaning Putin’s failure.
GRU Agent in Estonian Army Convicted of Spying for Russia
Less than half a year after the capture of two people suspected of working for the GRU, Russia’s main military intelligence agency, the Harju County Court has ruled on their case. Former officer of the Estonian military Deniss Metsavas has been sentenced to 15 and a half years in prison and his father Pjotr Volin to 6 years in prison.
Russia Holds Large-Scale Military Drills
Russia has launched what it called its largest military drills this year, with thousands of troops taking part and hundreds of equipment involved. Even if all eyes are on the Southern Military District, Russia is holding its war games across the country, also in the direct vicinity of the NATO borders.
Putin Dismisses Nine High-Ranking Generals
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree on dismissing nearly a dozen of senior military officials that held governmental positions. Most changes affected Russia’s Ministry and the Investigative Committee of Russia (ICR) where sacked officials were in charge of conducting high-profile investigations.
Candidate for EU Chief Prosecutor Supported in the EP
The fact that Laura Codruța Kövesi, the former head of Romania’s anti-corruption agency (DNA) intends to run for the position of the Chief Prosecutor of the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) has been the subject of debate for a few weeks now. As it turns out, Kövesi has recently received support from the European People’s Party (EPP), the largest parliamentary faction in the European Parliament.
U.S. Permanent Military Base in Poland: Favorable Solution For the NATO Alliance
This following report captures the idea of a permanent US base in Poland in the geopolitical context, along with its consequences for NATO and Central and Eastern Europe. This paper was supplemented with comments from experts from the United States, Lithuania and Romania to show a broader perspective on the creation of a U.S. permanent military facility on Alliance’s Eastern Flank.
US Basing in Poland and NATO’s Mobility Challenge
Comment to Warsaw Institute’s latest special report U.S. Permanent Military Base in Poland: Favorable Solution For the NATO Alliance by Glen E. Howard, president of Jamestown Foundation (USA).
Permanent U.S. Base: Strengthening NATO‘s Defensive Potential on its Eastern Flank
Comment to Warsaw Institute’s latest special report U.S. Permanent Military Base in Poland: Favorable Solution For the NATO Alliance by Laurynas Kasčiūnas, member of Lithuanian Parliament and National Security and Defense Committee (Lithuania).
U.S. Permanent Military Base in Poland: Added Value for Defense and Deterrence
Comment to Warsaw Institute’s latest special report U.S. Permanent Military Base in Poland: Favorable Solution For the NATO Alliance by Iulian Chifu – President of Conflict Prevention and Early Warning Center (Romania).
Russian-Turkish Ties Face Difficult Times over Syria’s Idlib
On February 9, military branches of the Kurdish-Arab SDF alliance, backed by the U.S.-led international coalition, launched an armed offensive against ISIS’s last remaining stronghold east of the Euphrates River. This means that Turkey and Russian and Iranian-backed al-Assad’s regime need to refrain from initiating armed operations against Kurds and the rebel-held Idlib province respectively.
Nord Stream 2: A Trap for Ukraine
Nord Stream 2 is a political project targeted at Ukraine, among others. It is an essential element of Russia’s anti-Ukrainian strategy and a tool to eliminate Kiev from the European gas transit system. This would be a severe political and financial blow to the Ukrainian state.
The Future of Gas Transit in the Shadow of the Elections
The recent, second round of talks between Russia, Ukraine and the European Commission about the Russian gas transit through Ukraine after 2019 ended up with failure again. It is not surprising as Moscow is obviously playing for time. Firstly, it is waiting for the results of elections in Ukraine. Secondly, the closer the end of the year, the worse the negotiation position of Kiev is.
Tomahawks in the Baltic States? Russia Is Making a Fuss
After the USA’s decision on suspending its participation in the INF treaty and the similar punitive decision of the Kremlin, Russia is fuelling the atmosphere of hysteria caused by this matter. This can be exemplified by statements concerning the alleged deployment of rocket weapons in the Baltic states by the USA.
Medvedchuk at Gunpoint. Russia in the Electoral Campaign
A notation in the constitution about the pursuit to enter the EU and NATO, a ban on observing elections in Ukraine by Russia, and, finally, a proceeding against the main advocate of the Kremlin’s interest in Kiev. There is no doubt that this all has its electoral context as well. All the mentioned activities are for sure good for the interest of Ukraine.
Warsaw Institute
