Russia Monitor Monthly 2/23
Content
Chinese Media Condemn AUKUS Pact
U.S. President Joe Biden, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison on September 15 announced a new working group now known by the acronym AUKUS. A cooperation scheme between countries fearful of the rise of Chinese power drew strong political reaction in China.
Russian “Elections” Overshadowed By Donbas War
Ukrainian state officials informed that possibly hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian residents in the occupied part of Donbas are being forced to cast their ballots in Russia’s parliamentary elections. But pro-Russian rebel fighters violate the ceasefire each fire, shelling Ukraine positions with weapons banned under the Minsk agreements. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky does not rule out that Russia would start a regular war with his country.
Djibouti. Ethnic conflict hinders the country’s development
Tensions between the Afar and Issa tribes date back decades. Issa, supported by the Somali government, wises to become a part of the Sitti Zone, which is a region of Somalia. During the 2014 meeting held in Awash with the then Somali president, a document was signed recognizing the three kebeles (administrative districts) as special areas of the Afar region. However, the agreement was contested by the Issa leader, which led to the resumption of the conflict and the demand for affiliation to the Sitti Zone in the Somali region in 2018.
Russia Is Common Threat to Poland and Baltic States
The Zapad-2021 drills and the EU-Belarus border crisis are both the reminder that it is the northern section of NATO’s eastern flank that is most vulnerable to any threat from Russia. Due to their location and military weakness, the three Baltic countries may feel particularly fearful of Russian pressure. It is only with the continued military support from the North Atlantic Alliance that these states could hope to deter Moscow. One example is the Air Policing Mission that aims to preserve the security of the airspace of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.
Progressive “Integration”: Lukashenko Gives Belarus Into Russian Hands
The presidents of Russia and Belarus met in Moscow yet did not sign chapters to a union state between the two countries. Nonetheless, the two leaders spoke of most thorny issues, notably energy, and adopted a somewhat common stance. Integration between Russia and Belarus––or rather pushing the latter country into Moscow’s clutches––is gaining momentum. Possibly by the end of the year Russia and Belarus will take some critical decisions that those in favor of an independent Belarus will find challenging to reverse in the future.
Law Enforcement Versus Cybercrime
Due to the intense activity of cyber criminals, authorities in many countries have long been looking for legal and technological solutions to effectively combat computer crime. The successful prosecution of cyber criminals faces numerous difficulties that have to be overcome in order to find and punish the perpetrators.
Kosovo in foreign policies of Poland and Hungary
Poland and Hungary are two Central European states, who thanks to their similar geopolitical positions and historic experiences have approximately the same vision about several matters from security policy, through economy to European politics. One of these are the Western Balkan policies and within that the recognition and support of the statehood of Kosovo. Or is it?
The Mysterious Death of Putin’s Trusted General
An unfortunate accident was supposed to be the cause of death of the Minister of Emergency Situations, General Yevgeny Zinichev, official statements say. For many years, Zinichev was a trusted man of Vladimir Putin, who guided his career. Zinichev was a personal security officer, the Governor of Kaliningrad Oblast, the Deputy Director of the Federal Security Service, and the Head of one of the important state power ministries.
Entertainment Industry Under the Watchful Eye of the Chinese Communist Party
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has recently taken up the issue of regulating China’s entertainment industry, focusing not only on the messages promoted by Chinese celebrities, but also the financial aspect in this domain. The impact of video games on young people was also addressed.
Syria. No prospects for ending the civil war
The ongoing war in Syria is nothing like the revolution that took place 10 years ago. Parts of the country’s territory are controlled by the armed forces of Russia, Turkey, the USA, the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, jihadists and Afghan, Pakistani, Lebanese and Iraqi mercenaries. An agreement between President Bashar al-Assad and his opponents seems impossible to reach. In the perspective of the next few years, the war will continue and the price for the actions of foreign troops in the country will be borne by the Syrian people.
Event Summary: An unwinnable war? Taliban Afghanistan as assessed by a local journalist
The risk of a civil war in Afghanistan (like in Syria) and over 7 million new refugees are a real danger, as Ahmad Farid Danesh Akrami suggested in an interview with Tomasz Kijewski, president of the Warsaw Institute. A long-term plan to move away from Western forces allowed the Taliban to build an appropriate marketing narrative and strengthen public support for the group, said Ahmad Farid Danesh Akrami.
Wolf warriors against European hawks. Can the European Parliament spearhead EU foreign policy on China?
Recent research on the European Parliament’s party groups’ voting patterns in the European Parliament has revealed that the EP is among the most resilient European institutions when it comes to foreign malign influence. This is especially true in the case of China, which has almost no soft power tools in its arsenal to influence the European decision-makers in the European Parliament. Beijing, even more so than the Kremlin, needs to resort to relations with individual member states on a case-by-case basis to pursue its interests within the EU, which is a highly effective strategy in the eastern part of the EU.
90 Years of the Polish Cipher Bureau
In mid-1931 the Polish Cipher Bureau was formed by the merger of two units dealing with counterintelligence and cryptology – the Radio-Intelligence Office (Referat Radiowywiadu) and the Polish-Cryptography Office (Referat Szyfrów Własnych). The Bureau dealt with both cryptography, i.e. the production and supervision over the correct use of ciphers, as well as cryptology – studying of ciphers and codes, mainly for the purpose of breaking them. From the very beginning, the Bureau’s staff worked in four units: (1) own ciphers, (2) eastern radio intelligence, (3) Russian ciphers, and (4) dealing with German radio intelligence and ciphers.
JOINT STATEMENT BY REPRESENTATIVES OF THE CIVIL SOCIETY ORGANIZATIONS ON THE CALL TO STOP THE NORD STREAM 2 PIPELINE
On the initiative of the Warsaw Institute, representatives of over 20 non-governmental organizations from Europe and the United States issued a statement calling for the stoppage of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project. Nord Stream 2 is a dangerous and short-sighted project that puts the economic interests of several minority stakeholders ahead of long-term security in Europe and transatlantic relations. This unnecessary pipeline sows discord in Europe, strengthens Russia’s control of Europe’s energy supplies, and undermines collective efforts to counter Russian aggression in the region.
Lebanon. Economic crisis
Between January 2020 and April 2021, prices of basic commodities in Lebanon increased by 350%. Taking into account the last two years, the increase amounts to 700%. The value of GDP decreased by about 40% from $55 billion in 2018 to $33 billion in 2020. On July 6, Prime Minister Hassan Diab appealed to the international community and the UN to provide help and prevent a humanitarian disaster and collapse of the country’s economy.
Event Summary: New York and Building Safety. What Can We Learn from the World’s Most famous city?
The Guardian Angels have branches in thirteen countries and over a hundred cities. While the original group of thirteen in his hometown has grown to thousands around the world, the mission has not changed: make a positive difference to the community by engaging our community members to take a step forward and play an active role. The creator of this group and a candidate for the mayor of New York is Curtis Śliwa, a guest of the Warsaw Institute.
Tribute To Russia: Will Lukashenko Give Belarus Into Russian Hands?
Russia Monitor is a review of the most important events related to Russian internal and external security, as well as its foreign policies. Date: Tribute To Russia: Will Lukashenko Give Belarus Into Russian Hands? Many signs are that the Belarusian...
Hungary, Russia Agree New Gas Contract
Hungary has agreed with Russia on all the conditions for a new long-term gas supply deal, according to Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto. The agreement is for 15 years and gas flows running to Hungary will bypass Ukraine.
Rosneft In Talks With Potential Investors In Vostok Oil
Russia’s biggest oil company Rosneft is in talks with various groups of investors on joining the company’s flagship Vostok Oil project. Earlier the energy giant had seen a major lifeline to develop its Arctic project once it sold a 10 percent stake to international trader Trafigura.
The Role of Hydrogen in Gazprom Neft’s New Policy
Mikhail Antonov, Head of Gazprom Neft’s Oil and Gas Refining Directorate, announced that the company will modernize its refineries by 2025. This upgrade is expected to increase the production of hydrogen, which is gaining importance in the energy policy of Russia.
Warsaw Institute
