Russia Monitor Monthly 2/23
Content
Did U.S. Neglect Relationship With South Pacific? U.S. Navy Pacific Fleet Commander Announces Changes
U.S. Navy Pacific fleet commander Admiral Samuel J. Paparo visited New Zealand in mid-September. The visit to New Zealand underscored the United States’ commitment to strengthening partnerships for an enduring free and open Indo-Pacific amid renewed Chinese efforts.
Russia Reaffirms Its Commitment To Develop Pakistan’s Gas Sector
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. Both leaders agreed to continue economic cooperation, with particular regard to energy projects. According to a 2019 deal, Russian gas giant Gazprom will pump a total of $14 billion into the Pakistani gas sector. Russians would invest around $10 billion in an offshore gas pipeline project, $2.5 billion in the North-South pipeline project, and the remaining $1.5 billion on building underground storage facilities.
Russia Increases LNG Output
Russia’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) output rose sharply between January and August compared with last year, according to data from Rosstat, the Russian federal statistics agency.
Taliban-Ruled Afghanistan Is New Market For Russian Fuel
Through a new deal with the Taliban, Moscow is following two goals. First, it embarks on a new market as Western nations are making efforts to destroy Russia’s economy with sanctions. What counts more is that Russia won a new market while economic benefits seem rather secondary. Secondly, Russia is seeking to boost its political influence in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.
Putin To Formally Annex Ukrainian Regions
Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to formally annex four territories from Ukraine on Friday September 30. This might mark a turning point in the war––following the invasion and Putin’s announced troop mobilization. Putin has gone to war he will either win or lose. Once Russia illegally annexes four territories of Ukraine, there will no longer be possible for the Kremlin to sit at the negotiating table with Ukrainian officials. This will trigger further sanctions from the West. The suspected sabotage of Nord Stream and nuclear threats might––according to the Kremlin––scare off Ukraine and Western nations.
Ukraine Applies For Fast-Track NATO Admission
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the bid for Ukraine’s accelerated accession to join NATO in response to Moscow declaring it had annexed four regions of Ukraine, or some 15 percent of the country’s territory. Ukraine’s fast-track admission into the alliance is highly unlikely, with the Russian invasion and illegal annexation complicating the matter even more. Ukraine’s joining NATO now would trigger a war between the alliance and Russia.
Russian Oil And Gas Resources: How Much and For How Long?
The head of the Rosnedra state agency managing subsoil mineral resources said how much oil and gas Russia still has at its disposal. Interestingly, his estimates differ much from those delivered in August by the head of the State Commission on Mineral Resources.
Montenegro Detains Russians On Suspicion Of Spying
Authorities in Montenegro have detained 36 Russian nationals on suspicion of espionage. Police detained six Russian diplomats, 30 Russian nationals with temporary residence permits, and two Montenegrins, on suspicion of working for Russian intelligence. One of the detained is Radomir Sekulovic, a former spokesperson for the foreign ministry. Montenegro’s services work together with foreign partners, perhaps amid a massive cyber attack that crippled the country in August.
Ukraine Claims Control Of Lyman, Encircling Russian Troops
Ukrainian forces encircled Russian forces near the eastern city of Lyman by September 30, marking yet another successful Ukrainian operation after an operation in Kharkiv. Importantly, encircling Russian troops in Lyman and making them surrender paves Ukraine’s way into the Luhansk region. The recapture of the key foothold in Lyman is of major propaganda significance as it took place when Putin announced the annexation of four Ukrainian regions.
Russia Announced Results Of Sham Vote In Russian-Occupied Lands
Russian-installed officials in four occupied regions of Ukraine reported huge majorities of votes in favor of joining Russia––ranging between 87 and 99 percent. Western countries will refuse to recognize the rigged vote tally. Despite that, Russia is likely to grab these eastern regions of Ukraine that together make up about 15 percent of Ukrainian territory.
Russia Threatens Nuclear Weapons Use
What Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said back in New York corroborates that the Russian snap decision to illegally grab Ukrainian territories was made to expand its nuclear blackmail. Russia has repeatedly waved the threat of using nuclear force to have the upper hand in its war in Ukraine. This is why the Kremlin decided to boost its credibility.
Putin, Xi Meets In Samarkand: China Is Russia’s Senior Partner
The Putin-Xi meeting at a regional security gathering in Uzbekistan has seen a reinforced Chinese stance toward Russia. It is Russia’s Putin that seeks Chinese support amid a lingering war in Ukraine and painful Western sanctions. At the summit of the Shangai Cooperation Organization, the Chinese leader symbolically settled Moscow’s consent to influence Central Asia––not only economically.
Gazprom’s Dividends: Less Gas, More Money
Russia is making fortune from the gas crisis it has sparked off. Russian gas giant Gazprom has scored brilliantly in the first six months of this year despite a decline in output and exports. The company has thus made an unprecedented decision to pay out a six-month dividend for 2022––interestingly, it did not pay out dividends for 2021.
Russia’s “Partial” Mobilization: Putin Deceived Fellow Citizens
The classified seventh paragraph of the decree of Vladimir Putin contains information on the mobilization volume, which now remains unknown. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made reference to up to 300,000 people being mobilized in phases but some news outlets reported that the real target is four times as many. Contrary to what Putin said, the military call-up is not partial, but widespread, while it is state authorities that decide who is summoned.
No. 303 Squadron: The Polish Heroes in the Battle of Britain
Polish pilots have earned a special place in British history. Formed on August 2, 1940, the 303rd Tadeusz Kościuszko Warsaw Fighter Squadron showed its exceptional efficiency and bravery during the Battle of Britain. With its heroism, No. 303 Squadron has proven to live up to the deeds of its great patron, Tadeusz Kościuszko.
The Three Seas Initiative from the Slovak Perspective: A Story of Missed Opportunities
The Three Seas Initiative is an excellent example of a sensible idea whose positive impact has been neutralized due to limited and delayed implementation. A denser energy, transport and digital infrastructure network, which is the main idea of the Three Seas Initiative, would provide us with a stronger and more resilient position in the face of the consequences of a Russian military attack on Ukraine. Better connectivity means more options. Greater infrastructure capacity means greater resilience. Together, this means greater freedom of action and less vulnerability, which are key features if we want to emerge victorious in the ongoing conflict with the Kremlin. Even without the war, the Baltic, Black and Adriatic Sea regions would greatly benefit from a solid north-south infrastructure axis in terms of potential for economic growth, energy security.
Sham Referenda In Russian-Controlled Ukrainian Regions
The results of these “referenda” are known well in advance. Russian President Vladimir Putin likely intends to annex occupied southern and eastern Ukraine directly into the Russian Federation in a few days. This operation is aimed at mobilizing Putin’s supporters in Russia and stoking fears of nuclear attacks if Ukrainian forces liberate the whole regions of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk.
The US-NATO and the reemerging regional waves
With the adoption of its Strategic Concept of 2022 in July 2022 in Madrid, Spain, NATO introduced its new action plan under its 2030 Agenda. However, the reality across the world presents enhanced challenges in today’s critical security landscape, suggesting that written commitments require effective actions.
Prisoner swap between the Taliban and the US government
Mark Frerichs had been held hostage in Kabul by the Taliban since his abduction in 2020, and after many months he was released in exchange for one of the Afghans who had been imprisoned by the US on drug trafficking charges.
Stick Or Carrot: Russia Approves Stricter Wartime Punishments
Russia has for months struggled with military personnel deficits. When Moscow ran out of its regular personnel, it had to resort to volunteers and mercenaries. This was too little so Vladimir Putin announced an immediate partial mobilization of its reservists. They are enticed with decent salaries but they face toughened punishments for desertion or insubordination.
Warsaw Institute
