Russia Monitor Monthly 7/23
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Event Summary: Three Seas Initiative (3SI) – New Developments?
The Three Seas Initiative (3SI) will not only support Europe and NATO’s Eastern flank, but also market competitiveness of the region – said Georgette Mosbacher. On Tuesday, April 17th 2021, Warsaw Institute had the honour to host another special guest within the Diplomacy Talks Series. This time we welcomed former US Ambassador to Poland (2018-2020) to talk about the future of the Three Seas Initiative.
European Strategic Autonomy: myth or future reality?
The European Commission has underlined several times how strategic autonomy should encompass a variety of sectors, ranging from economy to security. With the election of Joe Biden in the United States the pillar of security and defense, fundamental to European strategic autonomy has received growing attention.
Russia Pursues Twin-Track Policy Towards Taliban
Russia completed joint military exercises with troops from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan on August 10 as the Taliban gained control of much of northern Afghanistan, which borders Moscow’s Central Asian allies. It seems that it is just a matter of time when Kabul falls and the Russians are negotiating with the Taliban.
Is the Dispute over the Chinese University in Budapest a Measure of the Hungarians’ Sympathy for the PRC? – Podcast
Among the countries of the Visegrád Group, Hungary is perceived as having relatively close ties with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). However, the recent protests in Budapest, Hungary’s capital, over the construction of a branch of China’s Fudan University seem to show that the public is divided on the issue of Viktor Orbán government’s foreign policy.
The Three Seas Initiative (3SI) – New Developments?
“We support the approach that does not aim at sanctioning anyone but rather to level the playing field across energy suppliers in Europe,” Tomasz Kijewski, President of the Warsaw Institute tells CEENERGYNEWS, adding that true opposition to Nord Stream 2 is not about anti-Russian policy but it is a fight for fairness and competition on the European energy market.
Increased Taliban Activity in Afghanistan
Taliban fighters have taken control of a key district in western Afghanistan where an important border crossing with Iran is situated. Recently the group has been claiming significant victories in key locations across the country. Taliban have captured areas bordering five countries – Iran, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, China, and Pakistan. Foreign troops are ending their 20-year-long military intervention while the country’s internal security continues to deteriorate.
Russian Oil Tycoon Pays For Deals With Lukashenko
Sanctions imposed on Belarus and people doing business with the Lukashenko regime by the European Union and the United Kingdom forced a Russian oligarch to formally sell off stakes in oil companies. Mikhail Gutseriev, a Russian businessman, handed over his shares in Russneft and Neftis to his brother.
Anniversary of the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations between China and Turkey
At the beginning of August 2021, President Xi Jinping exchanged congratulatory messages with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The occasion was the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between China and Turkey. Relations between the two countries can be considered good and favorable.
Event Summary: Nord Stream 2 is a threat to security in Europe
Nord Stream 2 is a threat not only to energy security, but also to the national security of a number of European countries, assessed Svitlana Zalishchuk – foreign affairs advisor to the deputy prime minister of Ukraine in an interview with the Warsaw Institute think-tank on August 5, 2021.
Beijing’s New Initiatives to Counter Indian Influence
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is once again proving that the Southeast Asian region is extremely important to the government in Beijing. Two more projects dedicated to the countries of the region were officially launched in July.
Is the Dispute over the Chinese University in Budapest a Measure of the Hungarians’ Sympathy for the PRC?
In 2021, we may observe a gradual improvement in relations between Warsaw and Beijing. This is indicated by a number of factors, most notably the increasing frequency of talks and high-level meetings, during which more openness to cooperation and the maintenance of current joint initiatives was expressed. However, this is not synonymous with a change of course in Poland’s foreign policy.
U.S.-China Trade War: Origins, Timeline and Consequences
The first version of this report was published in early April 2020, during the early period of the COVID-19 pandemic and after the „phase one“ deal was signed. The situation worldwide and U.S.-China ties have both gained momentum since the report was first released, to which added up the intense presidential campaign in the United States and the worsening recession across the globe.
Artificial Intelligence on the Battlefield
The use of artificial intelligence (AI) in decision-making systems and conventional solutions of the military is no longer surprising. What is eye-opening, however, is the possibility of using it without human supervision. When Deep Blue computer won a chess game against world champion Garry Kasparov in New York City in 1997, most experts perceived this event as a sign that AI is catching up with human intelligence.
Moscow Plays Up Donbas As Part Of The Ukraine Conflict
Since the beginning of the war in Donbas, Russia has depicted the conflict as a Ukrainian civil war. In addition, the Kremlin consequently denies being a party to the ongoing conflict. Yet its recent decisions amid the upcoming State Duma elections and the fight against the coronavirus pandemic clearly show that one-third of Donbas, or so-called “people’s republics,” is in fact subordinated, or controlled, by the Kremlin. Ukraine’s government has banned the registration of Sputnik V in the country.
Russia Is Second-Biggest Oil Producer Only To U.S.
Russia was the world’s second-biggest crude oil producer in the first five months of 2021 only to the United States, according to data from Rosstat, the Federal Statistics Service.
Russia Deploys More Missiles To The Baltic Sea
The coastal defense missile systems Bal and Bastion were developed to ensure Russia’s control of the Gulf of Finland––and so was the purpose of similar complexes installed in Crimea nearby Ukrainian Black Sea ports. Intimidating enemies with missile defense systems is in line with Russia’s long-running strategy to build up the Western Military District, notably its positions in the Baltic Sea.
Astana Triangle Is Not Yet Dead
The 16th meeting of the Astana trio – made up of Turkey, Russia, and Iran – on Syria took place in July in Kazakhstan’s capital Nur-Sultan. They all vowed to continue their fight against the Islamic State (IS) and other Syrian-based “rebel groups.” The new round of Astana Syria talks took place amid conflicting interests both Moscow and Ankara have on Syrian soil.
Another Russian Oil Giant Resumes Operations In Libya
Russian oil producer Tatneft is ready to resume oil production in Libya and the company’s specialists are already working on this matter locally. Furthermore, not only does the giant wish to restart work abandoned as hostilities broke out in the country, but it is also looking for new opportunities for exploration. The Libyan government is encouraging Russian companies to come back to the country, seeking to rebuild economic ties both states had enjoyed in the Gaddafi era.
Ally Or Vassal: Armenia Is Forced To Look For Russian Help
Armenia opted for an alliance with Russia, hoping that Moscow would protect it against the fall of the Soviet Union and taking control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region alongside neighboring Azerbaijani enclaves. For decades, Russia has been the sole, albeit disloyal, ally of Yerevan, as was the case last fall when Armenia suffered defeat in the mountainous enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. At that time, Turkey was actively supporting Azerbaijan. Russia did not offer its support to Armenia but responded with diplomatic measures only when the ex-Soviet country was about to surrender. Russian troops were deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh to secure the deal. Being under pressure from both Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenia is more prone to agree on a bigger Russian presence. And that was what Moscow was about.
Russian Passport Holders In Donbas May Vote In Duma Elections
Russian passport holders in parts of eastern Ukraine that are controlled by Russia-backed separatists will be able to vote in the Russian parliamentary elections in September. According to a resolution adopted by Russia’s Central Election Commission on July 20, any person willing to do so will have to register and cast their vote online. This is a step towards incorporating Donbas and part of the Kremlin’s part to improve the election result of the ruling party.
Warsaw Institute
