Russia Monitor Monthly 7/23
Content
Is Turkey NATO’s Weak Link?
Turkey has received the first parts of a Russian S-400 missile defense system, all this despite Donald Trump’s warnings and the Pentagon’s threats. Imposing U.S. sanctions on Ankara is inevitable, but Turkey’s purchase of cutting-edge Russian military technology poses a thorny problem for all its fellow NATO allies, a situation from which Russia gains most.
Russia’s Warmer Ties with Germany
German exports to Russia are still growing while the construction of the Nord Stream 2 energy pipeline is advancing despite joint efforts made by its opponents. Participants of the Petersburg Dialogue forum therefore have good reasons to be pleased with the outcomes of the meeting. Russian-German top-level political ties are becoming better and better, as proved by the first meeting since the annexation of Crimea held between Russia’s and Germany’s foreign ministers at the sidelines of the Russian-German forum.
Kremlin’s Election Intrigue Takes Off Before Ukrainian Parliamentary Vote
In the final stretch to the upcoming parliamentary runoff in Ukraine, the Kremlin has boosted its activities, as exemplified by the meeting with the leader of Ukraine’s pro-Russian opposition party, developing a fast-track passport procedure in Donbas or a tough stance on releasing the Ukrainian seamen. By doing so, Moscow hopes to make a powerful pro-Russian camp enter a new Verkhovna Rada.
“Druzhba Effect”: Lower Oil Output Will Hit Russia’s GDP
Russian oil production collapsed in early July, dragged by decreasing output from Rosneft, the country’s largest crude producer. And this stems from the firm’s limited exports capabilities following the Druzhba pipeline contamination crisis, resulting in both from equipment failure and a restrictive policy pursued by the Russian state-owned oil pipeline operator Transneft.
Rosneft and Transneft in the fight for the Druzhba pipeline. Quoting in El Periodico
In the latest analysis of Marc Marginedas for El Periodico, one of the largest Catalan dailies, references appeared to our analytical articles on the recent conflict between the heads of Rostneft and Transnieft about who should bear responsibility for polluted oil in the Druzhba pipeline.
Wolves with Israeli Missiles for the Lithuanian Army
Lithuanian Armed Forces officially received two Boxer multirole armoured fighting vehicles ordered from Germany. In the Lithuanian army, they are called Vilkas (Ang. wolves). They entered the biggest unit which is the Mechanised Infantry Brigade “Iron Wolf”. Ultimately, the Lithuanian army will be equipped with 88 such vehicles. They will definitely reinforce the firepower.
Georgians Took to the Streets
A wave of demonstrations sparked in Georgia, a country located in the South Caucasus. Mass protests broke out over anti-Russian sentiment yet soon exemplified to no lesser extent people’s infuriation with the policy pursued by Georgian Dream, a political party that has ruled the country over the past six years. Though many would be eager to eye what happened in Georgia as a revolution, a sudden change of power seems unlikely, at least now.
Lithuania Closer to Poland. The New President and Coalition
The president’s first foreign visit to Warsaw and the invitation for the Lithuanian Poles party to the coalition and government. Lithuania definitely wants to get closer with Poland considering it as a security enhancement. The small Baltic country located between the highly militarised Kaliningrad Oblast and pro-Russian Belarus reacts to the enhancement of the Polish-American alliance.
A Landscape After the Storm: Who Will Rule Romania?
It is safe to say that Romania’s ruling coalition of the Social Democrats and Liberals is currently in crisis. Just to give a few examples, the leader of the dominant PSD went to prison, the opposition achieved much better results in the recent elections to the European Parliament and, despite a successful EU rotating presidency, Romania is still in conflict with the authorities of the European Union.
Russia After 2024: Chancellor Putin Seems an Unlike Scenario
Shortly after Vladimir Putin took the oath of office for his next term as Russian president, many speculated what the Kremlin’s host would be able to do in a bid to remain in power after his two consecutive terms expire in 2024. Under one of many theories that have recently resonated in the media, Putin could serve as a prime minister, however enjoying greater powers, a shift possible thanks to changing election rules.
Phone call with the Kremlin. Putin-Zelensky 1:0
Even though the President of Russia has not congratulated the President of Ukraine on his victory in the elections, they had a contact for the first time. For now only via telephone. Earlier, the Kremlin was consistently rejecting contact with Petro Poroshenko. But Vladimir Putin spoke to Volodymyr Zelensky – underlying that Kiev initiated the conversation. Regardless of the topic of the talks and possible arrangements, this is Putin’s success.
Romania’s EU Council Presidency Goes “Better Than Expected”
Such an opinion on the six-month Romanian presidency has been voiced by President Klaus Iohannis. As it turns out, the country which has recently been heavily criticised for violating the rule of law has actually done a lot to strengthen the European Union. For example, it is important to mention that during the last six months 90 pieces of legislation were adopted.
Russian Response to the Sea Breeze Exercise: The Black Sea Fleet Goes Out to Sea
The Russian Federation has decided to showcase its naval power in the Black Sea. This is Russia’s response to the recent sea manoeuvres of Ukraine and its allies. Four days after the start of the Sea Breeze 2019 exercise, the Black Sea Fleet began its own exercises. Moscow does not pretend that this is closely connected with the recent activity of Ukrainian and Western ships in the Black Sea.
Gagauzia: No Changes in the Region
On June 30, Irina Vlah won the elections for the post of Bashkan (Governor) of Gagauzia, an autonomous region of Moldova. Vlah won the elections already in the first round, where the voter turnout was over 50%. The President of the Republic of Moldova, Igor Dodon congratulated Vlah on her victory. In her speech delivered right after hearing the election results, Irina Vlah pointed out that she has done a lot to maintain the autonomy of Gagauzia.
Druzhba Pipeline Failure: Belarus Assesses Losses, More Suspects Are Coming Up
A few weeks have passed since a major failure of the Druzhba oil pipeline and there is still no answer to the three key issues. First of all, the system has not yet been fully cleaned up. Secondly, Russia has still not decided to compensate foreign recipients for all losses incurred. And thirdly, investigators are probing into who is to be blamed for and, while new suspects are coming up, this does not answer the question whose fault it was.
Northern Sea Route. Russia Is Fighting For the Arctic – Quoting in the American National Review
In the article that appeared in National Review “Is a Truly Cold War Emerging in the Arctic?” by Christopher Tremoglie, the text from our analytics program Russia Monitor “Russia Imposes Foreign Sailing Restrictions on Northern Sea Route” was quoted.
INF Treaty Collapse Is Russia’s Fault
Moscow denied accusations of being to blame for the collapse of the Treaty on the Elimination of the Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles, commonly referred to as INF. Europe’s security ahead of the U.S. planned withdrawal from the Treaty on August 2 was part of the official agenda of the latest NATO-Russian Council meeting.
Zelensky Offers Putin Peace Talks, the Kremlin Has a Problem
The idea to hold talks on the Donbass region and Crimea in the so-called “Normandy format” with the extra participation of the United States and the United Kingdom is not very convenient for Russia for a number of reasons. First, Volodymyr Zelensky has now taken the diplomatic initiative in the dispute over the occupied territories. Second, Moscow has to reject his offer. In this way, while Kyiv gains international recognition for both of these reasons,
Morales’s Visit to Moscow: Bolivia Drifts Closer to Russia
Russian authorities keep solidifying their influence in Latin America. Naturally, their priority is to help save the Maduro regime in Venezuela, but Moscow also seeks to back Cuba and Nicaragua. And now Bolivia is facing an opportunity to rise in importance. Bolivian President Evo Morales will visit the Kremlin on July 11 to sign strategic partnership agreements between his country and Russia.
Western Balkans and Geopolitics
In 2019, Poland holds the presidency over the Berlin Summit, culminated by the Western Balkans Summit in Poznań. Launched at the Berlin summit in 2014, the initiative gathers some of EU Member States, including Poland, along with six Western Balkan states.
Warsaw Institute
