Russia Monitor Monthly 3/23
Content
Russian Oil Revenues Rise Despite Lower Shipments
Russia’s oil revenues rose back despite lower shipments in June 2022 amid a rally in energy prices across the globe. While output is rising, an EU embargo on Russian oil will eventually come to force.
Trafigura Sells Stake In Vostok Oil To Mysterious Buyer
Trading giant Trafigura is continuing to unwind Russian business with the sale of its 10 percent stake in Rosneft’s Vostok Oil project. It sold a stake to an obscure Hong Kong registered purchaser.
Albania is a regional leader in the use of renewable energy
Albania has emerged as a leader in the Western Balkans region in the production of crude oil and the consumption of renewable energy sources in its own energy mix. It is a small country in terms of area (28,000 km2) and population (2.8 million), which carefully plans its energy policy. Albania, through the implementation of EU standards and efficient modernization of its energy infrastructure, has been introducing new legal documents for two decades, which facilitate the development of renewable energy sources in Albania and the reduction of greenhouse gas and CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. With the signing of the “European Union Energy Community Treaty”, Albania has committed to increasing the share of renewable energy sources in its energy mix by 38% by 2020.
Is there a possible change in the leadership of the Republican Party? Ron DeSantis grows stronger
Despite the fact that there are more than two years left until the presidential election in the United States, the discussion about the potential candidates of both parties warms observers of American politics. On the part of the Democrats, the incumbent president, Joe Biden, is announcing a battle for re-election. Everyone’s eyes, however, are on the other side of the political spectrum, where the position of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is growing.
Sweden’s and Finland’s current status in NATO
On May 18, Sweden and Finland applied to join NATO. After the accession protocols were signed on July 5, the protocols are currently being ratified by each member state. Until July 14, twelve out of the thirty member states have done so. It is expected that Sweden and Finland will become full members of NATO by the end of the year.
A Real Battle Of Donbas Is Yet To Come
Weeks of fighting in Ukraine’s eastern towns of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk just prompted the beginning of the real battle of Donbas. Russian efforts to push back Ukrainian forces from the entire Luhansk region have great propaganda significance, but can hardly be seen as a military success. For weeks now, Russian forces have sought to capture a small area, which affected its military capabilities elsewhere. In addition, many Russian soldiers were killed. Ukrainian troops had enough time to build a new line of defenses in Donbas. A real battle is yet to come.
Is There Possibility of Belarus Entering Russia’s War on Ukraine?
Rumors are that Russia could launch an offensive on Kyiv from the north, amid prompting concerns that Belarusian troops were about to be deployed in Ukraine. Russian forces are deployed in Belarus for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine yet Lukashenko himself will be a general without an army if he decides to send in his troops.
Russia temporarily halts natural gas flow to Europe via Nord Stream 1
Nord Stream AG has temporarily stopped the supply of gas from Russia to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, due to scheduled annual preventive maintenance. The pipeline system is scheduled to be deactivated from July 11 to July 21. During this period, a test of mechanical components and automation systems will be carried out “to guarantee the effective, safe and reliable operation of the gas pipeline”.
Kishida’s victory after Shinzo Abe’s death
The party of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) won Sunday’s elections to the upper house of the Japanese parliament. Together with its coalition partner, Komeito, the ruling camp won 76 seats, 70 of which were won by the LDP. Despite the death of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, on Sunday, 07/10/22, Prime Minister Kishida’s party won a parliamentary majority in the upper house. The government coalition exceeded the required 125 seats to achieve a parliamentary majority. Currently, there are 146 councilors from the above-mentioned ruling camp in the chamber. The opposition as a camp fighting for the votes of the LDP voters, in the form of: conservatives from the Japanese Innovation Party, center-rightists from the DPP (Democratic Party for The People), liberals from the CDP (Constitutial Democratic Party) and communists from the Japanese Communist Party, won in Sunday elections 46 seats, giving them a maximum of 102 seats in the upper house.
The military capabilities among Antarctic claimant states
The speakers who took part in this event were: Jan Hernik, editor-in-chief in Warsaw Institute and Finn – Ole Albers associated fellow at the Warsaw Institute. Finn – Ole Albers have written a report about military capabilities among Antarctic climate states. He mentioned the numbers of transport planes, tanker ships, destroyers that he used in his comparison. It is important which weapon system could be engaged in Antarctica. Finn – Ole Albers In his work used global firepower index and available database from 2015-2022 as his source of information. Machines from sea and air are essential for this report. Tactics, technology ,and firepower of single weapon systems as well reconnaissance capabilities gave Finn a broad view on a states’ position in the region. He measured, which country has the biggest chance in conquering Antarctica with their military resources.
Comparing Western supplies and Ukrainian losses in the war against Russia
Since Russia started its war against Ukraine, Western countries have provided military support for Ukraine. Do the western supplies actually build up the Ukrainian military, or are they just a replenishment for constant Ukrainian losses on the battlefield?
President Biden’s administration reaction to growing geopolitical challenges in the east
The speakers who took part in this event were: Jan Hernik, editor-in-chief in Warsaw Institute and prof. David Jones, the expert on the field of international relations. The event was held before the end of NATO summit in Madrid 2022, so the guest could share his point of view on what is going to happen with united stated allies in future and talk about Chinese – Russian relation that is strongly tightened in times of Ukrainian-Russian war.
The United States accepts China’s challenge. Biden leads the establishment of “Partners in the Blue Pacific”
On June 24, 2022, a new initiative was launched to respond to the growing interference of the People’s Republic of China in the Pacific island region. China, trying to move the boundary of its influence further and further, wants not only to tighten economic and defense cooperation with small island states in the Pacific, but above all to tear them away from the protection of the United States. The leaders of the newly formed coalition, led by President Joe Biden, include the United States, Australia, Japan, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.
Polish-Czech cultural cooperation
The speakers who took part in this event were: Liliana Śmiech, the Vice President of Warsaw Institute; Sylvie Vujtkowa, theatre dramaturge and PR manager, producer and Jan Hernik, editor-in-chief at the Warsaw Institute. The main topic of the program, was Polish – Czech cultural cooperation. Poland and Czechia are neighbors that share common values, have similar Slavic roots. The main goal of the event was to show the similarities as well as differences in common stereotypes of the Polish and Czech. The speakers illustrated how this cooperation looks like and how it would eventually look in the future.
The LDP party with Prime Minister Kishida goes to victory
On July 10, elections to the upper house of parliament in Japan will be held. According to experts, the current prime minister, Fumio Kishida, has an advantage over his political opponents. They are Yuichiro Tamaki from DPP and Ichiro Matsui from Innovation for Japan. In domestic politics, according to a Nikke poll, Prime Minister Kushida’s party has not been successful in terms of image among the public, due to the rising prices on the fuel market since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, from February 2022. In 2019, the nationalists from the LDP in the coalition with Komaito won the election to the upper house. Currently, the LDP needs 55 seats in the upper house to take it over and run the overall parliament of the Diet. In the current context, the LDP’s biggest rival, the Constitutial Democratic Party, represents the greatest threat to the LDP in the House of Councilors.
The threats and opportunities of China’s “17+1”
On May 31, two experts professionally focused on Chinese influence and China-Europe relations – David Plášek, an analyst from the European Values Center for Security Policy, and Wojciech Adamczyk, an analyst from the Warsaw Institute – discussed the threats and opportunities of China’s 17+1 format. They primarily dealt with the differences and similarities between Polish and Czech experiences and activities regarding the 17+1 group.
The stalemate in US-Turkey relations has been broken
Joe Biden supported the position of Turkey, which agreed to the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO before the negotiations at the Madrid summit, thanks to the signing of a tripartite memorandum. The decision was made that the most important pillar of NATO’s new defense doctrine was the fight against terrorism. This issue may be considered individually by the states of the North Atlantic Treaty as the forces of the alliance may not necessarily jointly undertake specific actions in the fight against Kurdish or any other terrorism. Turkey’s compromise allowed to face the situation that has been going on since May 2022.
Western Balkans and the War in Ukraine
A new chapter in the Russia-Ukraine war was a turning point for the security architecture in Europe. Although plainly local and between two states, the war in Ukraine is a proxy war that involves NATO and EU states and the Russian Federation. In consequence, other countries could be dragged into the conflict, including those that remain in the sphere of influence for many superpowers.
Lloyd Austin is making ranks among the allies of the United States
Representatives of all the most important countries located in the Indo-Pacific region met during the 21st Asia Shangri-La Security Summit in Singapore. Representatives of 42 countries attended the summit, including 37 delegates at ministerial level and over 30 senior defense officials. The Singapore meeting was an occasion for talks by leading allies opposing Chinese expansion in the Indo-Pacific region, led by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.
Key Takeaways from the 2022 NATO-summit in Madrid
At the beginning, the historic significance of the summit was explained by NATO’s Deputy General Secretary Mircea Geoana at the NATO Public Forum: “It is the most important summit for generations. Generations that never believed that after the atrocities of the First and Second World War, war is still possible in our continent. It shattered the assumptions in which our societies, our security, our economies were built.”
Warsaw Institute
