Date: 11 July 2022 Author: Kacper Gatlik

President Biden’s administration reaction to growing geopolitical challenges in the east

The speakers who took part in this event were:  Jan Hernik, editor-in-chief in Warsaw Institute and prof. David Jones, the expert on the field of international relations. The event was held before the end of NATO summit in Madrid 2022, so the guest could share his point of view on what is going to happen with united stated allies in future and  talk about Chinese – Russian relation that is strongly tightened in times of Ukrainian-Russian war.

Prof. David Jones stated that Biden administrations is preparing for the war in Europe. He quoted the new British general staff of the United Kingdom, who said to his soldiers, that they have to prepare for a war. However, the American president doesn’t want this to happen. Asked about the potential attack of Russian Federation on NATO country, prof. Jones said, that it can happen by accident caused intentionally by Russia. If NATO is provoked by Russia with death of few NATO personnel, the conflict could emerge.

As for representatives of Pacific Rim: Japan, New Zealand, Australia at NATO summit in Madrid, prof. Jones doesn’t consider participation of these countries in North Atlantic treaty in the future seriously. However, their presence there, can be a more clear sign of Chinese expansion in eastern Asia, that threatens more and more other states of the region.

Joe Biden is losing support of democratic electorate, he might be replaced with Hilary Clinton in 2024 elections. USA cannot intervene in replacing Vladimir Putin by force, because Americans wouldn’t like to witness the same situation with Joe Biden. American society is not tired of Ukrainian war, but they don’t like receiving bodies of their dead soldiers back home, as it happened in  Afghanistan and Iraq. The US Congress perceives Chinese as a greater threat rather than Russia. Chinese war machinery is being prepared, but it won’t be used with such manner as Russia did. They don’t want to make same mistakes as Russian Federation, but they want to break finally status quo, says prof. Jones.

The course of American politics does not appeal positively to Beijing, so they condemn Washington’s actions. US was exiting Afghanistan, because it was necessary, but Joe Biden could have done more to make it look differently. Professor disagrees that China can take on US and win, because America is still stronger that China (far more that public opinion think). As for deterrence against China, professor suggests destroying Russian pipelines for energy resources connected with China. It will destabilize the situation in far east, cut Russian money income and will be a blow for Chinese energy sector. The majority of the worldwide community do not want a new war between the West and the East, so “Partners in the Blue Pacific” that was announced in June 2022 can be a potential barrier from Chinese expansion on Pacific Rim.

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