OPINIONS

Date: 11 July 2022 Author: Finn-Ole Albers

Comparing Western supplies and Ukrainian losses in the war against Russia

Since Russia started its war against Ukraine, Western countries have provided military support for Ukraine. Do the western supplies actually build up the Ukrainian military, or are they just a replenishment for constant Ukrainian losses on the battlefield?

SOURCE: Flickr

To compare western supplies and Ukrainian losses, the article draws back on the monitoring of Ukrainian equipment losses provided by Oryx since the start of the Russian aggression on February 24. Oryx collects information on captured, damaged and destroyed Ukrainian and Russian equipment in the war.[1] To get an overview of the historical development of the losses, the article draws back on a dataset published by Daniel Scarnecchia on Github, who web-scrapes the updates of the Oryx website about Ukrainian losses.[2] The used dataset covers the Ukrainian losses until July 4.

Regarding the western supplies, the focus is on some key systems: Armoured vehicles, towed and self-propelled artillery, tanks, multiple-rocket launcher systems (MRLS), surface-to-air missile systems, aircraft and helicopters.

Problems in the accuracy and collection of data

The data from Oryx is regarded as one of the most accurate sources, however, there are concerns that there is a pro-Ukrainian bias as there might be more photos published about Russian destroyed equipment.

To get information about the single western supplies, information is collected from some already existing compilations from Oryx, Army Recognition and Wikipedia plus additional own research.[3] See the full list of sources below.

Sometimes countries transparently inform the public when a shipment arrived in Ukraine. But usually, governments just announce future shipments – which makes it difficult to determine the exact date of the arrival in Ukraine. In these cases, either the date of a pledged shipment is counted or the date when first parts of a shipment reportedly arrived in Ukraine. Of course, this reduces the accuracy of the data as there is a time lag between a government’s pledge to deliver equipment and the equipment’s actual arrival.

In addition, there is a high probability that the author of this article oversaw some shipments. Besides, some countries don’t give information on the quantity of delivered equipment, which then can not be included into the analysis.

In the case of Germany, only shipments confirmed by the Ukrainian side are counted as the time lag between German pledges and actual shipments is one of the biggest among western countries.

Results

The tables show that Ukraine has seen an increase in the numbers of armoured vehicles, towed artillery, self-propelled artillery, multiple rocket launcher systems, tanks and helicopters.

There are two systems with higher Ukrainian losses than western supplies: Surface-to-air missile systems and aircraft. Around May 29 it is assumed that Bulgaria sent 14 Su-25 aircraft to Ukraine via land. Sending fighter aircraft is discussed since the start of the invasion, however it is highly controversial among western policymakers.

In total numbers, western states supposedly to the date of July 7 delivered 719 western armoured vehicles, 145 pieces of towed artillery, 143 pieces of self-propelled artillery, 51 multiple rocket launchers, 276 tanks, 14 surface-to-air missile systems, 14 aircraft and 20 helicopters.

The biggest contributors of arms are the United States, the United Kingdom, Poland and the Czech Republic. For instance, the United States alone supposedly sent 200 M113 Armoured Personnel Carriers, 100 Infantry Mobility Vehicles, 116 towed howitzers, eight HIMAR rocket launchers and two National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS).

Growing Challenges for Ukraine nevertheless

Even though the Ukrainian military might get more western supplies than it looses in combat, it might not be enough to prevail against Russia or even re-liberate the occupied territories.

On June 13, Mykhaylo Podolyak , presidential adviser to President Zelensky, demanded 1000 howitzers calibre 155 mm; 300 multiple rocket launchers, 500 tanks, 2000 armoured vehicles and 1000 drones in order to be able to win the war.[1]

Meeting these demands would require western countries to further increase their supplies. According to Gustav Gressel, military expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, the Ukrainian armament industry was to the greatest extent destroyed. It was on the West to decide whether Ukraine was going to prevail in the war by sufficiently delivering arms.[2] On various other occasions Gressel stresses the urgency for Ukraine to switch over to NATO equipment as the stocks of old soviet equipment in former eastern-block states are running low.

What is more, in the beginning of June the Ukrainian government estimated that 100 soldiers would die per day plus 500 being injured.[3] Training for new soldiers is therefore becoming more important. At least for the part of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson announced to launch a training programme for 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers every 120 days.[4]

List of detected shipments:

1) Existing Lists and Overviews

Oryx, Heavy Weaponry Supplied To Ukraine, https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-supplied.html (accessed 8 July 2022)

Army Recognition, Full list of US & European weapons and military equipment delivered to Ukraine, https://www.armyrecognition.com/ukraine_-_russia_invasion_conflict_war/full_list_of_us_european_weapons_and_military_equipment_delivered_to_ukraine.html (accessed 8 July 2022)

Wikipedia, List of foreign aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_foreign_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War (accessed 8 July 2022)

2) Detailed Information

Tanks

Czech Republic: 40

05.04.2022

https://echo24.cz/a/SrjYb/cesko-poslalo-na-ukrajinu-desitky-tanku-t-72-a-bvp

Poland: 236

25.04.2022

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-has-delivered-tanks-ukraine-says-polish-pm-2022-04-25/

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1521065494559789056?s=20&t=FSpbbvjH7ZLw-POcc4jC0Q”

Infantry Fighting Vehicle

Czech Republic: 56

01.04.2022

https://echo24.cz/a/SrjYb/cesko-poslalo-na-ukrajinu-desitky-tanku-t-72-a-bvp

Poland: 40

05.04.2022

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/04/05/Czech-Republic-sends-tanks-infantry-fighting-vehicles-to-Ukraine-Source

Slovenia: 35

21.06.2022

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_june_2022_global_security_army_industry/slovenia_donates_to_ukraine_34_bvp_m80a_tracked_armored_ifvs_in_exchange_for_us_weapons.html

Armoured Personnel Carrier

Lithuania: 20

16.06.2022

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-m113-armored-personnel-carriers-transferred-by-lithuania-are-already-in-ukraine/

UK: 35

16.06.2022

#Ukraine: The Ukrainian army received British FV103 Spartan armored personnel carriers – they are already used by Ukrainian troops.

British officials previously mentioned that Ukraine will get 35 FV103 APCs and 40 vehicles from the CVR(T) family from the UK. pic.twitter.com/Ntp5OzBiVA

— ?? Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) June 16, 2022

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/04/the-uk-is-delivering-a-menagerie-of-armored-vehicles-to-ukraine/

United States: 200

02.04.2022

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_june_2022_global_security_army_industry/us_armed_forces_keep_supplying_200_m113_apcs_to_ukraine.html

Portugal: 15

09.05.2022

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_may_2022_global_security_army_industry/portugal_approves_delivery_to_ukraine_of_15_m113_apcs_and_5_m114_155mm_howitzers.html

Denmark: 54

07.06.2022

#Ukraine: The first sighting of Danish ?? M113G4DK armored personnel carriers in Ukraine – here seen with add-on armor and armed with a Browning M2 .50 heavy machine gun.
In total 54 M113G3DK and M113G4DK APCs were donated by Denmark to the Ukrainian army. pic.twitter.com/xiNtbtbLwY

— ?? Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) July 6, 2022

Australia: 4

20.06.2022 https://www.army-technology.com/news/australia-sends-four-m113as4-armoured-personnel-carriers-to-ukraine/

Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles

Australia: 20

28.04.2022

https://defence-blog.com/ukrainian-army-receives-first-australian-built-bushmaster-vehicles/

Australia: 20

19.05.2022 https://www.australiandefence.com.au/defence/general/m113s-and-more-bushmasters-for-ukraine

Spain: 1

21.04.2022

40 Spanish-made military trucks and off-road vehicles for Ukraine travel in the ‘Ysabel’

Estonia: 7

17.05.2022

#Ukraine: More evidence of curious supplies to UA forces- this time we can see 7x Alvis 4 APC (UK-made version of the South African Mamba)- according to our information they were used by Estonian forces after refurbishment, then given to Ukraine. They are generally well regarded. pic.twitter.com/GH8mdPyqkb

— ?? Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) May 17, 2022

UK: 80

19.06.2022

https://defence-blog.com/british-armored-vehicles-spotted-in-ukraine/#:~:text=Videos%20have%20surfaced%20online%20reportedly,government%20to%20fight%20Russian%20troops

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-soldiers-are-training-to-use-mastiff-armored-vehicles-in-the-uk/

Infantry Mobility Vehicles

United States: 100

13.04.2022

https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2998981/howitzers-helicopters-humvees-headed-to-ukraine/

Portugal: 4

30.04.2022

https://sol.sapo.pt/artigo/769878/eua-pressionam-portugal-a-ceder-blindados-a-ucr-nia

Canada: 8

23.05.2022

#Ukraine: Canadian Roshel Senator armored personnel carriers are already in Ukraine – 8 of these APCs were supplied by Canada recently. The hull of this vehicle can protect occupants from explosion and bullets up to .30-60 AP. pic.twitter.com/YNh2el1J1b

— ?? Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) May 23, 2022

Spain: 20

30.04.2022

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_may_2022_global_security_army_industry/spain_supplies_ukraine_with_20_uro_vamtac_4x4_light_armored_vehicles.html

Towed Artillery

Estonia: 9

27.02.2022

https://news.err.ee/1608513764/germany-gives-estonia-permission-to-send-weapons-to-ukraine-media

United States: 18

13.04.2022

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2999113/800-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

United States: 72

21.04.2022

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/biden-speak-ukraine-war-amid-expectation-new-military-aid-2022-04-21/

United States 18

19.05.2022

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3037837/100-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/source/100-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

United States 18

15.06.2022

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3064351/1-billion-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

Australia: 6

26.04.2022

https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/australia-gifts-ukraine-with-six-m777-155mm-lightweight-towed-howitzers-and-howitzer-ammunition-to-fight-off-russia/news-story/68b1a30f9bd4c6ff0d256b3f629252a1

Canada: 4

23.04.2022

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-m777-howitzer-russia-heavy-artillery-1.6427762

Self-Propelled Artillery

Czech Republic: 20

14.04.2022

https://m5dergi.com/defence-news/czech-republic-ships-rm-70-multiple-rocket-launchers-and-dana-howitzers-to-ukraine/

https://www.armyrecognition.com/czech_army_artillery_vehicle_weapon_systems_uk/dana_152mm_shkh_vz_77_8x8_self-propelled_howitzer_czech_republic_data.html”

Poland: 20

01.04.2022

#Ukraine: The first public appearance of a Polish 2S1 Goździk 122mm SPG in Ukraine – the distinctive camouflage allows the vehicle to be identified. According to public information, the Ukrainian army received approximately 20 of these self-propelled howitzers from Poland. pic.twitter.com/wZWCAsTiPM

— ?? Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) June 23, 2022

France: 18

17.06.2022

https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/emmanuel-macron-announces-france-to-supply-caesar-howitzers-armoured-vehicles-to-ukraine-articleshow.html

Norway: 22

08.06.2022

https://ukranews.com/en/news/861736-norway-transfers-22-m109-self-propelled-howitzers-to-ukraine

Netherlands: 7

21.06.2022

https://mezha.media/en/2022/06/21/155-mm-pzh-2000-sph-is-already-with-the-armed-forces/

Germany: 5

21.06.2022

https://mezha.media/en/2022/06/21/155-mm-pzh-2000-sph-is-already-with-the-armed-forces/

Italy: 5

29.06.2022

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_june_2022_global_security_army_industry/italy_delivers_to_ukraine_five_pzh_2000_155mm_self-propelled_howitzers.html

Poland: 18

30.05.2022

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_june_2022_global_security_army_industry/poland_signs_agreement_with_ukraine_to_deliver_60_krab_155mm_self-propelled_howitzers.html

Slovakia: 8

30.05.2022

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/zuzana-slovakia-officially-announces-transfer-of-acs-to-ukraine/

UK: 20

17.06.2022

https://www.army-technology.com/news/uk-acquires-m109-howitzers-ukrainian/

Multiple Rocket Launchers

Czech Republic: 20

15.04.2022

https://mezha.media/en/2022/04/15/new-weapon-deliveries-from-the-czech-republic-dana-self-propelled-artillery-and-rm-70-multiple-rocket-launcher/

Poland: 20

15.04.2022

Rumors have swirled about Poland having donated up to 100 modernized T-72 tanks to Ukraine, but the analyst @oryxspioenkop now confirms another delivery of heavy weapons to Ukraine from Poland.

20+ 122mm 2S1 self-propelled howitzers SPG.

&

20+ BM-21 Grad MLRS.

???? pic.twitter.com/hTVdeELa47

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) April 15, 2022

USA: 4

01.06.2022

https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3050010/advanced-rocket-launcher-system-heads-to-ukraine/

UK: 3

06.06.2022

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61701055

USA: 4

23.06.2022

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3072799/450-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

Surface-To-Air Missile Systems (SAM)

Slovakia: 1

08.04.2022

https://www.voanews.com/a/slovakia-gives-s-300-air-defense-system-to-ukraine-pm-says/6520768.html

Czech Republic: 6

08.04.2022

https://www.praguemorning.cz/czech-republic-sends-tanks-rocket-launchers-artillery-to-ukraine/

UK: 5

25.04.2022

https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/landwarfareintl/uk-sending-stormer-armoured-vehicles-to-ukraine/

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/which-weapons-are-the-uk-and-other-countries-sending-to-ukraine-41610544.html

USA: 2

01.07.2022

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3081993/820-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

Aircraft

Bulgaria: 14

29.05.2022

Ukraine has received 14 Su-25
combat aircraft from its partners in Eastern Europe.

According to @ForeignPolicy, the planes were delivered "in disassembled form".

The country which provided the planes hasn’t been named, but Bulgaria has exactly 14 Su-25s. pic.twitter.com/i6RUxT88LI

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) May 29, 2022

Helicopters

USA: 5

03.05.2022

https://www.newsweek.com/us-pledged-mi-17-helicopters-arrive-ukraine-11-more-go-1703208

USA: 3

16.05.2022

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-united-states-handed-over-three-mi-17-helicopters-to-ukraine/

USA: 12

01.06.2022

White House Sending Mi-17 Helicopters, Radar To Ukraine

[1] M. Podolyak: https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1536245024354144257?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1536245024354144257%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pravda.com.ua%2Fnews%2F2022%2F06%2F13%2F7352189%2F (accessed 8 July 2022)

[2] ntv, Why Russia has to loose the war, https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Darum-muss-Russland-diesen-Krieg-verlieren-article23389788.html (accessed 8 July 2022)

[3] BBC, Ukrainian casualties: Kyiv losing up to 200 troops a day, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61742736 (accessed 8 July 2022)

[4] Reuters, UK’s Boris Johnson offers Ukraine soldiers’ training programme, https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-boris-johnson-offers-ukraine-soldiers-training-programme-2022-06-17/ (accessed 8 July 2022)

[1] Oryx, Attack On Europe: Documenting Ukrainian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine, https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html (accessed 8 July 2022)

[2] D. Scarnecchia, Scrape Oryx, https://github.com/scarnecchia/scrape_oryx (accessed 8 July 2022)

[3] Oryx, Heavy Weaponry Supplied To Ukraine, https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-supplied.html (accessed 8 July 2022)

Wikipedia, List of foreign aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_foreign_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War (accessed 8 July 2022)

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