RUSSIA MONITOR MONTHLY 3/2020
Contents
Nord Stream 2 Stuck in the Waiting Room
Though the Russia-to-Germany gas link was frozen after Washington had introduced a batch of sanctions, there is still a chance to complete it. Both Berlin and Moscow so far have invested many financial and political means to defend their joint undertaking.
Kozak-Yermak Plan on Donbas: A Trap for Ukraine
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is well aware of his dropping popularity ratings, is making efforts to reshuffle both the government and his presidential administration.
Russian Arms Industry Gets a Lifeline
Russia’s intense and long-term efforts to modernize its military inventory got the country’s arms industry into deep trouble. Some of the state’s flagship arms production plants are now in a difficult situation, thus the Kremlin seeks to help them by erasing their outstanding debts.
Russia Seeks Good Ties with Taliban
In its policy towards Afghanistan, Russia has long attempted to make U.S. and NATO military forces quit the country. What Moscow sees as a milestone is the U.S.-Taliban peace accord, saying it is ready to cooperate with Islamists once they seize power in the country.
Russia Suffers Major Setback in the Balkans
North Macedonia has officially become NATO’s 30th member. With the new North Atlantic Alliance member in the Balkans, Russia has seen a blow delivered to its policy aimed at banning former Yugoslav republics from joining Western blocs.
Russia’s Gazprom Lost in Court Battle with Poland’s PGNiG
Russian state-run gas giant saw yet another failure in a legal spat with a Central and Eastern European company. First, it lost a court battle with Ukraine’s Naftogaz and now Poland’s largest gas distributor PGNiG emerged victorious in its litigation with Gazprom.
Is This the End of Russia-Belarus Oil Spat?
Russia and Belarus have reached a temporary agreement for limited oil supplies. After months-long talks, Moscow agreed to drop any premiums to suppliers. The two countries came to a deal for crude flows after oil prices suffered a historic collapse.
Russia’s Coronavirus Cases Prompt Putin to Change Strategy
Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed that his country is no longer an exception amid the global coronavirus outbreak. Its closure of the border with China brought adequate, albeit short-term results, as most people affected with the novel virus came back from trips to Europe, in particular from popular tourist destinations like Italy or Spain.
Russian Oil Tycoon Embroiled in War, Sechin Becomes Public Enemy No. 1
Since March 6, the global oil market has seen an ongoing price war. And yet, Russia has witnessed a war going between CEO of Rosneft Igor Sechin and other oil firms that spoke against Russia’s withdrawal from the OPEC+ pact.
Putin’s Popularity Ratings Amidst Coronavirus Outbreak
Two Russian public opinion research centers have unveiled two different president’s popularity ratings. A survey by state-run VTsIOM found that Russian people consolidate themselves around state authorities in the time of crisis, thus as expected.
Russia’s Lukoil Makes Higher Profit
Though bereft of much of financial favors from the state, Lukoil, one of the biggest Russian oil firms, reported good commercial results for 2019, even despite falling oil prices.
Russia’s Rosneft Exits Venezuela, Sechin Reaps Double Benefit
Russian oil giant Rosneft sold its assets in Venezuela to the Russian government. The company would be receiving a settlement payment worth a 9.6 percent share of Rosneft’s equity capital, or some $4 billion.
Coronavirus in Russia: Moscow’s Sobyanin Plays a Risky Game
With the coronavirus epidemic, plunging oil prices and an increasingly acute crisis in the country come political intrigues and fierce competition for influence and power.
Russia’s Rosneft Paid Exorbitant Amount to Mystery Consultant in Kurdistan
For years Russia has been the biggest foreign investor in Iraqi Kurdistan. Of all the country’s majors, state-run oil giant Rosneft has been most active, serving a comparable role to that in Venezuela.
Coronavirus in Russia: Unbelievably Low Infection Figures and Belated Measures
Russian crisis management center said on March 22 the country will not impose strict quarantine measures amid the recent coronavirus outbreak.
Putin Seeks to Stay in Power through Unlawful Constitutional Amendment
Russian President Vladimir Putin is in a rush to push forward changes to the country’s political system –– while not waiting for any adverse effects of the latest coronavirus outbreak nor the global oil price war.
War or Peace? Erdogan Flies to Moscow for Syria Talks
When it became clear that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will head to Moscow, as Putin has no plan to visit Istanbul, and the Ankara-sought meeting will not involve German and French leaders, it seemed that the Kremlin had outfoxed Turkey.
Russia Launches Syrian Express Operation as Turkey Attacks in Idlib
As earlier announced, Ankara pressed ahead with a military campaign in Syria’s Idlib province. In late February, there expired a deadline given by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad to withdraw from areas it had taken over after the offensive into Damascus.
Russia Forms Anti-Turkish Coalition Over War in Syria
The spat in Russia-Turkey ties over the Idlib offensive may lead to a severe breakdown in cooperation between these two countries.
OPEC+ And Coronavirus: Russia and Saudi Arabia Divided Over Oil Supply Cuts
With the coronavirus fanning out across the globe, oil producers have also been at risk as countries, especially China, saw a massive drop in demand for crude, a tendency going hand in hand with plunging prices.
Warsaw Institute
