It has been seven months into the battle of Bakhmut, where Russian forces have suffered significant losses and made no progress. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the combative boss of Russia’s Wagner private military group, had hoped seizing the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut would bring him a moment of glory but now believes his mercenaries are no longer capable of capturing Bakhmut. Perhaps this is where Russia is poised to suffer a heavy defeat in a Ukrainian counteroffensive campaign. But this is exactly what happens when military strategies give way to political calculations.

Many believed in mid-March the fate of Bakhmut was sealed, with the city doomed to fall. Yet after Ukrainian forces pulled out of the city’s east and safeguarded supply lines south of Bakhmut, Russia is unlikely to capture it for a long time now. Moscow seems to have understood this and thus Russian forces reduced the intensity of their assaults as they move troops elsewhere.