RUSSIA MONITOR MONTHLY 05/2021

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Bakhmut: A Russian Trap. Part 2

Bakhmut: A Russian Trap. Part 2

It has been seven months into the battle of Bakhmut, where Russian forces have suffered significant losses and made no progress. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the combative boss of Russia’s Wagner private military group, had hoped seizing the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut would bring him a moment of glory but now believes his mercenaries are no longer capable of capturing Bakhmut. Perhaps this is where Russia is poised to suffer a heavy defeat in a Ukrainian counteroffensive campaign. But this is exactly what happens when military strategies give way to political calculations.

Bakhmut: A Russian Trap. Part 1

Bakhmut: A Russian Trap. Part 1

Many believed in mid-March the fate of Bakhmut was sealed, with the city doomed to fall. Yet after Ukrainian forces pulled out of the city’s east and safeguarded supply lines south of Bakhmut, Russia is unlikely to capture it for a long time now. Moscow seems to have understood this and thus Russian forces reduced the intensity of their assaults as they move troops elsewhere.

Japanese PM Kishida Makes Surprise Visit to Ukraine

Japanese PM Kishida Makes Surprise Visit to Ukraine

Japan is watching the Chinese-Russian rapprochement. Not surprisingly, it is looking for allies amongst the opponents of China, which is why the Japanese prime minister traveled to Kyiv and Warsaw. Japan is a vital and promising partner for countries in Europe’s center and east.

Moldova Braces For Natural Gas Supply Shortage

Moldova Braces For Natural Gas Supply Shortage

The Russian energy giant Gazprom may completely halt the gas supplies to Moldova. The government in Chisinau is now planning ways to deal with such eventuality amid a months-long dispute over gas supplies and their price. Moldova sends the entire volume of gas it is receiving from Russia to the hydropower plant in Dniester in Transnistria, a breakaway governing region. Moldova then gets electricity in return.

Putin Pays Bizarre Visit to Occupied Ukraine

Putin Pays Bizarre Visit to Occupied Ukraine

President Vladimir Putin made a surprise trip to war-ravaged Mariupol. The visit came after Putin visited Crimea to mark the anniversary of Russia’s annexation of the peninsula. Two days before, the International Criminal Court had issued a warrant for his arrest on war crimes charges. The dictator’s visit to the occupied areas of Ukraine stirred up major controversy.

Polish, Ukrainian Gas Operators Sign Memorandum of Cooperation

Polish, Ukrainian Gas Operators Sign Memorandum of Cooperation

This is another major step in bringing Poland and Ukraine together in joint energy projects. Poland’s Gaz-System and the Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU) signed a memorandum of cooperation providing for increased gas pipeline capacity, aligned gas transmission systems in both Poland and Ukraine, and joint efforts to explore the possibilities for the transmission of biomethane and green hydrogen.

One Year Later, U.S. Stands With Ukraine

One Year Later, U.S. Stands With Ukraine

Monday, February 20, 2023, the world was startled by the news of John Biden’s visit to Kyiv. Some experts described it as a surprise trip to the capital of embattled Ukraine. The visit had a highly symbolic significance emphasising Ukraine’s resistance to the world’s second army. Biden in Kyiv, commemorated the first anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine and highlighted the role of the Central and Eastern European region.

Iran To Buy Russian Su-35 Fighter Jets

Iran To Buy Russian Su-35 Fighter Jets

Not surprisingly, Iran has reached a deal to buy advanced Su-35 fighter planes from Russia, expanding a relationship that has seen Iranian-built drones used in Russia’s war on Ukraine. Both states have been in talks for months now to purchase fighter jets, a sign of ever-increasing military cooperation between Russia and Iran.

U.S. President Joe Biden Arrives In Kyiv And Warsaw

U.S. President Joe Biden Arrives In Kyiv And Warsaw

U.S. President Joe Biden traveled to Poland and Ukraine on February 20–23. While the White House announced Biden would visit Poland, the U.S. leader traveled into a war zone in Ukraine amid a cloak of secrecy. In Kyiv, he met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky while in Warsaw he addressed Poles in a speech and attended an extraordinary summit of the Bucharest Nine.

Policy Brief. Kremlin Watchers Movement Report

Policy Brief. Kremlin Watchers Movement Report

Russia uses disinformation as a foreign policy tool, and its military actions in Ukraine are supported by disinformation operations. Poland, as one of Ukraine’s main allies, is an important country against which the Kremlin uses disinformation.

Biden’s Kyiv Visit Sends Strong Message to Moscow and West

Biden’s Kyiv Visit Sends Strong Message to Moscow and West

U.S. President Joe Biden made a surprise trip to Kyiv on February 20, ahead of the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The visit carried huge symbolism as while in Kyiv, the U.S. president promised new military aid to Ukraine. Biden’s trip to war-stricken Ukraine was a clear sign of strong support for Ukraine from the United States sent to both Russia and some Western states unwilling to provide assistance to Kyiv. Perhaps the Kremlin considered Biden’s trip to Kyiv was no longer just an effort to save Ukraine but to smash Russia militarily.

Belarus, Gazprom Sign Gas Supply Deal

Belarus, Gazprom Sign Gas Supply Deal

Belarus’ Ministry of Energy signed a protocol with Gazprom on the process of establishing prices for natural gas delivery to Belarus by 2025. The tariff is set at $128.5 per 1,000 m3, as in 2022. A Gazprom-dependent gas intermediary and Gazprom also set some rules for natural gas supply to Belarus.

Russian Offensive in Donbas Did Not Scare off Ukrainians

Russian Offensive in Donbas Did Not Scare off Ukrainians

Instead of a lightning thrust, Moscow has dialed up offensives in a handful of spots, resulting in fighting that is slow and extremely tiring to both sides. Russia has commenced its long-awaited offensive as six months passed since Moscow’s last gains in Ukraine’s Donbas. This is where Russian forces are now advancing while seeking to control the southern front spanning from Dnipro to Melitopol in case of a Ukrainian counter-offensive effort.

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