Russia Monitor Monthly 7/23
Content
Rosneft and Transneft Continue to Clash over Oil Quality
A new factor has emerged in an ongoing dispute that sparked in front of the domestic and international audience between Rosneft’s Igor Sechin and Transneft’s Nikolay Tokarev in the wake of the Druzhba oil pipeline failure in April this year. Both companies have been at loggerheads over the quality of oil that runs through a Rosneft-owned refinery via Transneft’s pipeline system.
Russia distorts history. The reaction of the Estonian diplomacy
The 75th anniversary of the Red Army incursion to Estonia and related statements made by Russians sparked a sharp reaction in Tallinn. The issue of the takeover of Estonia by the Soviet army in 1944 and consequent almost half a century of occupation are one of the fields of tension in the relations between Russia and Estonia. The historical policy of Moscow is also a matter of dispute with many other countries. Russia defends the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact and claims that it had “liberated” Estonia in 1944. In turn, in Tallinn, there are many proponents of the demand for compensation for occupation from Moscow.
Missiles, Bases and Drills: Russia Flexes Military Muscles in the Arctic
Within the past two months, Russia has deployed new missiles systems on the territory of the Kola Peninsula. This comes as yet another stage of the country’s military build-up in the Arctic, a step that raises concern mainly in Norway. Russia keeps expanding its military infrastructure also east of the Kola Peninsula.
Rosneft’s Sechin: Oil Cluster in the Arctic Only With State Aid
The head of Russia’s biggest oil company has no intention to give up in his fight for tax incentives for creating a vast oil cluster in the Arctic. For Igor Sechin, this is to become a vital source of crude for maritime transport via the Northern Sea Route. But the total costs of the project are sky high, and Sechin expects that all companies involved in its implementation will be granted tax exemptions. The problem is that the finance minister has said no to these plans. So as usual, Sechin is trying to sort the things out at the top political level, and he has sent a letter to Vladimir Putin.
A Romanian politician to become the first European Public Prosecutor
The appointment of the former anti-corruption chief, Laura Codruța Kövesi, has already been confirmed by the EU member states. It happened despite the opposition of the Romanian government which from the very beginning is trying to torpedo her candidacy.
Russian Bomber Mission Becomes Proving Ground for Belgians
It has now become something of a tradition that August and September are a time of increased activity of the Russian Air Force over the Baltic Sea. This is mainly the result of intense military exercises conducted by the Russian army at this period of the year. An interception of a group of Russian aircraft performed by Belgian fighter jets, which took off from Lithuania, on September 17 confirms that Moscow has been regularly sending out nuclear-capable bombers on missions over the Baltic Sea.
Playing the Trans-Caspian Game
The First Caspian Economic Forum, during which politicians and business representatives from five Caspian Sea states have met, has been recently held in Turkmenistan. As anticipated, the event has become a perfect occasion to announce a series of declarations and agreements by individual policy makers. Among the published reports, those regarding the plans of constructing the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline, which is greatly supported by the US and EU, seem particularly interesting.
Russia-Ukraine Prisoner Exchange: Zelensky Caught Into Russian Trap
An actual prisoner swap between Ukraine and Russia is a PR success of Ukraine’s incumbent leader Volodymyr Zelensky, yet it is his Russian counterpart who won politically. The negotiating process of the prisoner exchange, how it was performed and the names of those who were meant to be freed eventually shed a negative spotlight on Ukraine.
Putin Orders Gas Link Between Yamal and China
The Kremlin is consistently leaning towards boosting cooperation with China while making efforts to build, along with its Chinese ally, the Moscow-Beijing anti-U.S. axis. What stands out as the top assets are hydrocarbon resources that Russia seeks to export in large amounts to the Middle Kingdom, though such a business is less economically viable than trading gas to the European market. It cannot be ruled out Moscow’s gas tilt towards Asia is to some extent triggered by fears over mounting competition from U.S.-sourced liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Double standards still a standard
The discussion on double standards used by companies selling products in the eastern and western part of the European Union market has been held for several years. This regards, among others, the worse composition of food available in the states of the “new Union” – including Romania. Despite pressure on the international corporations and laws introduced by the European Parliament, the situation requires changes.
President Dodon negotiates gas prices with Russia
Russian-Moldovan negotiations are being held before the expiration of the current contract with the Russian gas supplier, Gazprom. Russia remains a monopolist on gas supplies to Moldova and all sudden rises of energy prices may significantly influence the condition of the Moldovan economy.
U.S. Warns Sechin’s Firm over Trading Venezuelan Oil
The activity of Russia’s state-run oil firm Rosneft on Venezuelan soil is a matter of mounting concern for the U.S. administration. U.S. Special Envoy for Venezuela Elliott Abrams said Washington could impose sanctions against Igor Sechin’s company over its alleged assistance for the Nicolas Maduro-led regime. Following the withdrawal of other oil importers from the Venezuelan market, Russia’s Rosneft is for Venezuela the last-ditch solution.
Putin’s Envoy Meets Taliban After U.S. Talks Collapse
Russia has long made efforts to narrow down, or to derail Western, and chiefly the U.S., military troop presence in Afghanistan. Moscow’s top goal in Afghanistan consists in becoming a key mediator in the Afghan civil war and securing dominant influence in Kabul. It is therefore vital to eye the Taliban as Russia’s allies in its fight against what is called the Islamic State on Afghan soil.
Gazprom’s Results Not Affected by LNG Export Figures
The liquefied gas segment is doing well in Russia, with LNG exports running high since the beginning of the year. This will undoubtedly translate into the financial results of Russia’s private-owned firm Novatek that holds the lead in this respect.
PM Netanyahu and Israeli Delegation Pay a Pre-Election Visit to Sochi
A few days before the election, Israeli Prime Minister yet again sought to get support from Vladimir Putin. Although during his latest visit to Sochi high on the agenda were the issues of Syria and Iran, it is widely speculated that Netanyahu’s trip to Russia may help boost his electoral popularity among the Russian-speaking electorate. And as for Iran, Moscow has no intention of shifting its current policy.
Tsentr 2019 and More: Russian Military Drills Reach Their Apex
Russia’s annual grandiose war games Tsentr 2019 are not the sole military undertaking to take place within the Russian army in the upcoming days. In a couple of days ahead of the planned drills, the Russian and Belarusian militaries had kicked off the joint army exercise Union Shield 2019.
Estonia: Ratas’ government still in office, failure of the opposition
After four months of the functioning of government, PM Jüri Ratas had to face the first vote of no confidence. The coalition consisting of Estonian Centre Party, EKRE and Isamaa rejected the motion of censure without problems. The fact that five deputies of the opposition did not take part in such important voting is a sign of its weakness.
Putin’s Allied Candidate Wins in Abkhazia Presidential Vote
All significant political factions in the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia believe in close cooperation with Moscow in a move that is de facto comparable to a Russian protectorate. A presidential election held recently in the self-proclaimed statelet was of great importance for another reason, which was somewhat strife for reclaiming control of Russian subsidies.
The Gas Intermarium
An agreement on energy cooperation signed between the United States, Poland and Ukraine is yet another episode in the U.S.-Russian war over the hydrocarbon market in Central and Eastern Europe. This is the response to the increased cooperation between Moscow and Berlin and the plan to make Germany a hub distributing Russian gas. Now, Poland has a chance to become a competitive hub distributing U.S. gas. This will benefit not only the U.S. and Poland, but also other countries in the Central and Eastern European region, providing an alternative to Russian gas.
Quality Check-ups and Compensations: Rows Continue over Druzhba Failure
Following massive pollution of oil running through the Druzhba pipeline in Russia, attempts are being made to make settlements and play up financial responsibility for what happened. So far no new mechanisms have been pushed forward to monitor the quality of oil in Russian pipelines in an effort to stop similar failures striking a blow into the entire energy sector in the future.
Warsaw Institute
