Russia Monitor Monthly 4/23
Content
Transnistria. What’s going on there?
The Russian attack on Ukraine has been going on for three months now. Currently, the main area of fighting is the eastern part of the country. However, Ukrainian commanders must also bear in mind the western border. All through the so-called Transnistria, i.e. the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic. Approximately 1.5 thousand Russian soldiers are stationed in the internationally unrecognized separatist quasi-state, which inevitably may be alarming. There are many indications that their role should not be overestimated. A small number of troops and the outdated equipment used by them allow at best for subversive activities on a limited scale. However, it is worth being aware of their potential.
After Russian Cutoffs, European Countries Face Gas Conundrum
Gazprom’s halted gas deliveries to Bulgaria and perhaps soon Moldova made eastern Balkan countries look for some alternatives. One could be an increased flow of liquefied natural gas (LNG) through Greek terminals, currently under construction. Another might consist in expanding gas facilities to deliver more gas from Azerbaijan. In addition, Romania says it will produce much gas once it starts extracting from the Black Sea shelf. The easiest and fastest solution is the second of them, though. Greece-based LNG terminals will be operational in a year and a half. It is only in four years that Romania is poised to become a gas exporter.
South Ossetia’s Cumbersome Referendum After Leader Quits
The leader of Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia set July 17 as a date for a referendum on joining Russia. Anatoliy Bibilov, who has been the de facto president of South Ossetia, yet lost to his top challenger who is against a vote on whether or not to join Russia. The sham referendum is a headache for Russia, being an obstacle to rapprochement efforts made by Georgia’s ruling party. If the Kremlin is seeking to please Putin, it could be through claiming some Caucasian regions from Georgia while possibly ripping some lands from Ukraine.
Donbas Operation: Fierce Fighting By Donets River
Russian forces once again shifted their military strategy in Donbas. As Ukrainian troops claimed success in the region, Moscow lowered its expectations. Many signs are that Russian forces will seek to encircle the Ukrainian military in Severodonetsk though to a smaller extent than intended.
Putin Appoints Acting Governors In Display Of Power
Frustrated at the failure of Russia’s army to quickly defeat Ukraine and Western sanctions against Moscow, the Kremlin is making efforts to consolidate its grip on the regions. Russian President Vladimir Putin made his supporters acting governors of five regions while much is now said about eliminating popular regional elections across the country.
Iranian-Saudi Negotiations
The fifth round of talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran took place in late April this year. Previous talks have focused mainly on issues concerning pilgrimage to Mecca and have been led by lower-level officials. The latest talks involve the foreign ministries of both countries, which indicates the willingness of both sides to bring “their own efforts” (without U.S. involvement) to resolve the most difficult conflicts in the region that pose a threat to their economies.
Saudi Arabia. 9.6% GDP Growth in Q1 2022
The government of Saudi Arabia (the world’s largest oil exporter) says preliminary estimates indicate that the country’s economy grew by 9.6% in Q1 2022, and if those estimates are confirmed, it will be the highest growth rate since 2011, according to the Saudi General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT).
Siemens Departs Russia Over War with Ukraine
Siemens stated this Thursday, that it will exit the Russian market, due to the war in Ukraine resulting in losses and charges, which led to lower profits during its fiscal second quarter, at its train-making business.
Biden will participate in the QUAD Summit in Japan
The summit of the states associated in the QUAD alliance is to be held on May 24, 2022. QUAD is a partnership between Australia, the United States, Japan and India with the unofficial goal of repelling Chinese expansion in the Indo-Pacific. The planned meeting of the leaders of the allied countries is an important item in the foreign policy of the Joe Biden administration in the context of growing tensions in the Indo-Pacific.
Ukraine’s Kharkiv Offensive Foiled Russian Plans
The Ukrainian offensive near Kharkiv, which started in early May, is the first large-scale operation Kyiv started since the war has broken out. Indeed, Ukrainian forces recaptured considerable areas in the country’s north and northeast from where Russian troops had withdrawn. By their successful assault east of Kharkiv and some earlier efforts throughout the region, Ukrainian forces show their attempts to seize areas in the south are not just an empty boast.
Russia Targets Ukrainian Energy Facilities, Attacks Refineries, Siphons Off Gas
Kyiv halted the use of a major transit route blaming interference by occupying Russian forces, the first time exports via Ukraine have been disrupted since the invasion. Kyiv says Russia intensifying its assault with attacks reported on oil facilities. The goal is to curb the fuel supplies available and cripple the whole economy.
The United States cautions Solomon Islands against cooperation with China
Tensions are mounting in the Pacific after China began working with Australia’s immediate neighborhood, the Solomon Islands. The agreement concluded by the Beijing administration with representatives of the island state provides for the possibility of Beijing sending forces to “help maintain social order”. The US does not rule out military action if the Chinese decide to develop their permanent base on the territory of the Solomon Islands.
When Zelenskyy mentions Verdun: moving for convincing
In addressing the French parliamentarians on March 23rd, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked for “more help” and “more support”. To convince his audience, he compared Mariupol to Verdun. The memory of the Great War is important for French people and Zelenskyy knew it as he unfolded his argumentative speech.
Sanctions Against Russian Technology Companies
Since the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the European Union (EU) countries and the United States have been tightening export restrictions on Russia and Belarus. Their aim is to increase pressure on Moscow and Minsk as well as force the aggressors to stop escalating the conflict.
Russia doubles fossil fuel revenue since Ukraine invasion began
The country receives some €62 billion from oil, gas and coal exports in two months, with Germany being the largest importer.
Prospects For Ukraine Joining NATO Are Dim
Kyiv is insisting on the set of peace proposals it submitted in late March in Turkey. The proposals mean that Ukraine would not host any military bases in exchange for security guarantees from most countries, including Russia. But recent occurrings may make Kyiv change its position.
No Armored Battle In Ukraine’s Donbas And On Southern Front
The much-debated battle of Donbas unfolds differently than some expected. Vladimir Putin cannot announce the Russian seizure of the whole regions of Donetsk and Luhansk on May 9. Perhaps Russian forces will not be able to seize the very last Ukrainian stronghold in Mariupol, either. They are seeking to attain some goals in the regions of Kherson and Zaporizhia. A Russian invasion of Odesa or Kryvyi Rih is unlikely to succeed.
Russia Cuts Off Gas To Poland, Bulgaria
Russia’s Gazprom cut Poland and Bulgaria off from its gas for refusing to pay in roubles, which was a purely political move. Moscow somehow had to respond to the fact that European clients had rejected Vladimir Putin’s demand that foreign purchasers of Russian gas pay in the Russian currency. It was the Kremlin’s tit-for-tat move after the West imposed a batch of sanctions that crippled the Russian currency. It was a brazen demand as Putin’s demand to pay in roubles was a breach of contract. Once it is met, EU recipients would violate the sanctions against Russia. Putin thus incites some discrepancies within the EU while seeking to display the bloc’s weakness at the time of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Germany Ready To Confiscate Rosneft Oil Assets
The biggest Russian oil company is unable to award a tender to sell oil while Germany has signaled a change of control at the country’s Schwedt oil refinery that is run by Rosneft. In a major shift in its stance, Germany says it is prepared to ditch Russian oil supplies. Its cooperation with Poland could be vital in this context.
Is India Planning To Invest In Russian Energy Despite Economic And Political Risk?
As the West shuns Moscow, India has taken up a Russian offer to buy crude oil at a discount. However, it is struggling to find shipping options. This may be a crucial factor for Indian companies that consider purchasing more stakes in Russian energy firms and their oil and gas ventures.
Warsaw Institute
