Russia Monitor Monthly 3/23
Content
Joe Biden’s Victory and US Relations with Central and Eastern European Countries
The victory of Democratic candidate Joe Biden in the battle for the presidency of the United States, caused concerns among the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) about the future cooperation with the new administration. The upcoming presidency will focus on, among others, reversing Donald Trump’s decisions. Will the relations with CEE countries share a similar fate?
Beijing is Reaching Out to the US
Recently, authorities in Beijing have been signaling that they are ready for cooperation and a fresh start in relations with Washington and the Joe Biden administration. The Chinese officials are very conciliatory and portray the PRC as a non-confrontational party that is reaching out to the new US administration and encouraging it to abandon the former policy of the White House which Beijing perceives as “confrontational.”
Tensions Across the Taiwan Strait
Chinese warplanes, including the H-6K bombers and four J-16 fighter jets, entered Taiwan’s airspace on Saturday, January 23. The administration of Joe Biden immediately backed the island nation. Consequently, tensions between Washington and Beijing will escalate once again.
Huawei in Poland and Hungary. Could it be a part of 5G? – Podcast
Since the beginning of the second decade of the 21st century, Huawei has achieved a leading position on the markets of the Visegrád Group, both in terms of digital infrastructure and mobile devices. During Donald Trump’s presidency (2017-2021), the US authorities made extensive diplomatic efforts to eliminate Huawei from the European Union’s (EU) 5G infrastructure, pointing to political and intelligence threats and the company’s cooperation with the Communist Party of China.
USA Under Attack – A Living Case of Cyber Warfare
The United States is currently undergoing a significant cyberattack. Among over 18,000 potentially affected users, many have been confirmed to operate within the networks of federal agencies, including the State Department, Treasury, Department of Homeland Security, Pentagon, and Department of Energy.
Poland-China Relations in 2021: Current State and Prospects
Despite growing trade and good relations between the presidents of the two countries, communication between Warsaw and Beijing has stalled for some time. Following a period of dynamic development of relationships between 2008 and 2016, the cooperation has weakened under the rule of the United Right (Polish: Zjednoczona Prawica).
“Fuel Charge”: Lukashenko Pays For Russian Help
The Russian government published a regulation allowing Belarus to ship Belarusian oil products destined to third countries through Russian seaports, according to latest publication by the government of Mikhail Mishustin. Belarusian oil export through Russian seaports is on the list of the conditions Moscow imposed on Lukashenko when agreeing to help him during the political crisis in August last year.
Putin, Biden Agree To Extend New START Treaty
The United States and Russia have agreed to extend the New START, an arms control treaty, by five years, marking number one news after Joe Biden’s first phone call as president with Vladimir Putin. This yet does not mean any breakthrough in U.S.-Russia ties as at the same time, Biden raised concerns about the arrest of Russian opposition figure Alexey Navalny and Russian aggression on Ukraine.
China – An Unexpected Winner of the Pandemic
Thanks to its relative success in the fight against pandemic, China was the only major economy to report a GDP growth of 2.3% in 2020. The pre-pandemic forecasts suggested that China would become the world’s largest economy in 2035, but, due to its GDP growth and a parallel recession in the US, this might happen even seven years sooner.
Russia Produces More Liquefied Natural Gas
In 2020, Russia’s liquefied natural gas output grew by 3.5 percent year on year. Throughout last year, the country produced 30.5 million tons of LNG, according to data from Rosstat, the Russian federal statistics agency.
Xi Jinping’s Speech in Davos
Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), participated in the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos on January 25. This year it was held virtually. It was his first appearance in Davos in four years, following the one in 2017. The address was Beijing’s manifesto on playing a bigger global role, upholding multilateralism and supporting developing countries.
Vostok Oil: Rosneft Starts Works On Vankor Field
Igor Sechin announced his grandiose plan to develop the Russian Far North to Vladimir Putin and all signs are now that he is under major pressure to forge ahead with the project. The Rosneft-developed Vostok Oil project should already produce 30 million tons of oil in just three years. But the construction work does not move forward as planned.
Myanmar Orders Russian-Made Missile Systems
Russia signed another deal to deliver its military hardware to Myanmar. While visiting the country, a delegation of Russian defense officials, including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, inked the deal to supply the Russian Pantsir-S1 air-defense system to the Asian state. This is yet another manifestation of the ever-closer military-technical cooperation between the two nations.
Beijing Reacts to Czech Visit to Taiwan – Podcast
From August 30 to September 5, the President of the Czech Senate Miloš Vystrčil visited Taiwan. This stay resulted in a series of diplomatic and media events, which in turn worsened China-Czech Republic relations. The articles published in the Chinese media and statements by political representatives of the Communist Party of China (CPC) critically approached this situation, which is yet another manifestation of the Chinese diplomatic and information offensive.
Russia’s 2020 Budget Left With Fewer Petrodollars
Russia’s finance ministry published official data on the federal budget in 2020. What strikes most is the never-before-seen drop in the country’s resource rent that brings most to the Russian federal budget. Russia’s revenues from the hydrocarbons sales dropped year-on-year by 34 percent, to 5.235 trillion roubles ($67 billion).
Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Sees Last-Minute Sanctions
Back on January 15, it seemed that Russia could complete its Nord Stream natural gas pipeline. A German federal agency gave its go-ahead for wrapping up the project, while the country’s foreign minister Heiko Maas said Berlin could make a deal with the new U.S. administration. Nonetheless, the outgoing administration had passed a new set of sanctions targeting the project already at risk amid the arrest of Kremlin critic Alexey Navalny.
Russia, New U.S. Administration Note Frosty Beginning
The arrest of Kremlin critic Alexey Navalny has taken its toll on a new chapter in U.S.-Russia ties opened after Joe Biden was sworn in as U.S. president. Another contentious issue is the Nord Stream 2 energy link though it also touches upon U.S.-German relations, and it is not yet known whether the Biden administration will keep a tough stance on the pipeline.
Conclusions From Rallies In Support of Navalny
Russia is seeing an unprecedented wave of street rallies after the arrest of Kremlin critic Alexey Navalny, the only surprising feature of Saturday’s (January 23) events. Neither a harsh reaction from the country’s authorities nor the Kremlin’s narrative on the protests, lambasting Washington for staging the demonstrations, came as a surprise.
The Problematic Relations Between Hungary and the European Union
A deterioration in relations between Hungary and the European Union could be observed over the last decade. The key subjects of this dispute are the reforms introduced by the successive governments of Viktor Orbán. The tense situation between the Hungarian government and the EU institutions almost led to a veto on the budget and the Reconstruction Fund last December.
Russian Siloviki Warn Against “Color Revolution”
Russia’s interior ministry said the country might see attempts to destabilize the domestic situation as was the case in neighboring Belarus and Kyrgyzstan. This is linked to the arrest of Russian opposition figure Alexey Navalny who urged his supporters to hit the streets.
Warsaw Institute
