Russia Monitor Monthly 1/23
Content
Another SBU Official Suspected Of State Treason
Ukraine’s main intelligence and security agency SBU reported suspicion of treason to the temporary acting head of the Institute for the Training of Legal Personnel for the Security Service of the Yaroslav Mudry National University of Law. He is another person suspected and detained for spying for Russia.
Russia’s Gazprom Offers Extra Gas Supplies To Hungary, Cutting Off Deliveries To Other Countries
Gazprom will send more gas to Hungary while cutting off supplies to Germany and France. Russia’s gas strategy is characterized by two principles. First, state-run gas giant Gazprom has for more than a year pushed to increase gas prices throughout Europe. Secondly, Moscow applies a reward-and-punishment mechanism for some countries, depending on their stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Taliban As Another Market For Russian Oil Companies?
The Taliban administration is in the final stages of talks in Moscow over the terms of a contract for Afghanistan to purchase gasoline and benzene from Russia, according to Afghan officials. A delegation of Taliban officials led by the trade and industry minister is negotiating a deal with their Russian counterparts to secure imports of wheat and oil. Russian oil and fuel exports to Afghanistan will not be significant, but what matters more than the economy is the propaganda and political message. Russia seeks to add a new country to the list of Russian energy importers and boost mutual ties.
France’s TotalEnergies And Its Activities In Russia
Western businesses quit Russia––some do it quickly while others just pretend to withdraw from the country. A fierce controversy recently broke out over France’s TotalEnergies and its activities on Russia, soil, according to French daily Le Monde.
Lost race with the communists
As you know, World War II ended the German occupation, but the Poles found themselves under the totalitarian rule of Stalin. The authorities brought on Soviet tanks were not interested in the needs and opinions of the Polish people, but with orders from the Kremlin. But what would the Poles of that time want if they could decide about themselves?
Ukraine Continues Crimean Counteroffensive Also Outside Battle Zone
A series of attacks on Russian military facilities in Crimea coincided with the second summit of the Crimean Platform. Perhaps the brave deeds of the Ukrainian army were to promote the diplomatic initiative. Eight years after Russia unlawfully seized Crimea from Ukraine, the prospect of its liberation has not resonated louder than now. It is both about Ukraine’s military efforts and Western solidarity.
As Russian Offensive Stalled, Ukraine Is Running Out Of Time To Counterattack
Russian forces have not made significant territorial gains in Ukraine since early July. The war in Ukraine has settled into trench warfare. Any major shifts if such occur might take place alongside the southern front.
Bulgaria’s Ready To Negotiate Gas Deal With Russia’s Gazprom After Government Changes
Russia cut off gas supplies to Bulgaria, back then under the pro-Western government of Kiril Petkov, back in April. The authorities in Sofia refused to bow to Russian pressure and started buying gas elsewhere. However, the government of Petkov, who refused Russia’s demands in April, lost a vote of no confidence and a new caretaker government has been appointed by Rumen Radev, the country’s pro-Russian president. The bottom line is that Bulgaria says it wants to resume talks with Russia’s Gazprom on the latter’s terms.
Putin Signs Showy Decree To Increase Size Of Armed Forces
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on August 25 to increase the size of Russia’s armed forces by 137,000 to 1.15 million. The document is a propaganda tool that will scarcely improve the Russian situation in Ukraine. It is unlikely to add that many people as Russia is struggling notably with a poor demographic situation. Adding more servicemen does not mean an increase in combat strength, in particular in Russia.
Russia Appoints New Black Sea Fleet Commander Amid Ukrainian Attacks
The six-month Russian invasion of Ukraine has claimed the lives of many senior Russian military officials. Others were relieved from their duties. As recently reported, a new commander has been appointed to the Russian Black Sea Fleet amid a series of setbacks it had seen, including the sinking of its flagship vessels and recent blasts in Crimea.
MENA Weekly Digest
Read the most important events in the Middle East and North Africa region from 17 to 26 August 2022.
Russian Hydrocarbons Export: Big Profit Today, Big Trouble Tomorrow
Russia is expected to pocket $337.5 billion this year on energy exports alone, according to an economy ministry document seen by Reuters news agency. But a boom in energy earnings only partly compensates for the damage from sanctions to such industries as automotive, IT, and banking. Russia is becoming an even more resource-intensive country, thus economically uncompetitive and dependent on the energy policy of other players.
New Zealand in AUKUS? Americans do not rule out such a solution
In face of the tension that has built up in the Indo-Pacific region in recent weeks, New Zealand sees an opportunity to enter into a sharper relationship with the People’s Republic of China. In late July, Wellington suspended the extradition treaty with Hong Kong, also changing its policy on the export of military goods and technology. The US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, who visited New Zealand at the beginning of August, encouraged the potential rapprochement in allied relations with the USA.
Three Seas Initiative ad. 2022 – challenges for Poland
Completed in June this year. The summit of the Three Seas Initiative in the Latvian capital was another annual meeting at the presidential level, which showed the durability of this relatively new format of Central European cooperation.
Russia Stages Air and Sea Provocations, Teasing Western Nations
Recent weeks have seen a series of incidents that Russia provoked mostly in the air, both in the Baltic Sea and the Pacific. Russia, which struggles in Ukraine, is staging provocations near countries it considers hostile. A similar chain of incidents has not been reported in months.
Western Countries Pledge Defensive Military Aid To Ukraine
Western countries declare more weapon supplies to the Ukrainian army. U.S. President Joe Biden marks Ukraine’s Independence Day with Washington’s largest aid package to the war-torn country.
Bulgaria and the Three Seas Initiative: turning precaution into unleashed potential
The Three Seas Initiative has received subdued rather than committed and vigorous support in Bulgaria. Limited public awareness, coupled with distrust and opposition to the Initiative by Russophile and nationalist social and political networks, limited Bulgaria’s full anchoring in the format and limited discussions to the technical and economic dimension of regional cooperation. In turn, the political and conceptual aspects of the Three Seas Initiative were the subject of unjustified interpretations, multiplied in the pro-Russian disinformation. The latter called the project a “sanitary cordon”, a new “iron curtain” and a “geopolitical battlefield” allegedly motivated by Polish Russophobia, aimed at isolating Russia and China and promoting Western hegemony, including through military means.
Talks on a nuclear deal between the US government and Iran
In 2018, the then US president, Donald Trump, made a decision to withdraw from conducting talks regarding the signing of a nuclear agreement with Iran and decided to impose numerous sanctions aimed at employing the Iranian government to function in such a way as to force them to stop developing their nuclear potential.
Myanmar To Import Russia Oil
Not surprisingly, Myanmar is set to join a growing list of countries that are warming up to Russia’s oil imports. Both regimes have forged close cooperation. In addition, Myanmar suffers from a gasoline shortage while Russia is seeking to send its energy elsewhere. Last but not least, Myanmar is yet another ready market in Asia that matters most for Russia as Western states shunned Russian energy imports.
The Three Seas Initiative
In the 21st century, the sea continues to be the most common way to transport goods and people. The context and importance of the seas can be a key factor in an international show. So why not take advantage of this factor and unite? Working together for the common good may be an old concept, but it still works. Until it becomes too political when it comes to endangering other political groups, unions and organizations. That is why it is important to perceive the Three Seas Initiative as something important, something new and innovative, but above all – something good. As stated in the official definition, it is “a politically inspired, commercially driven platform to improve connectivity between Member States”.
Warsaw Institute
