Russia Monitor Monthly 05/2022

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Draft Law On Conscripts Will Help Russia’s FSB

Draft Law On Conscripts Will Help Russia’s FSB

Russian conscripts will soon be able to sign contracts with the Federal Security Service, or the FSB. On May 17, the State Duma adopted a draft law in its first reading. Its updated versions will help the FSB add more specialists to the staff, according to Russian lawmakers. In fact, this just shows to what extent Russian power structures quarrel over staff. It also signals a decrease in the quality of Russian military staff for whom educational requirements have been lowered. The bill is little beneficial for the Russian army. The FSB could take its staff, also in the middle of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when staff shortages are acute.

Russia’s Sequential Strategy For Donbas Offensive

Russia’s Sequential Strategy For Donbas Offensive

While in Ukraine’s Donbas, Russian forces are following the same strategy as they did in Syria. Many officers have fought in the Middle Eastern country. Instead of simultaneous pursuit of multiple goals, the Russians have picked one goal and are now sparing no efforts to achieve it. Only after completing one, another goal could be identified. Although it has little propaganda effect, the strategy is actually efficient.

Russia’s Oil Output and Exports Amid Sanctions

Russia’s Oil Output and Exports Amid Sanctions

The collapse in Russia’s oil output is inevitable, according to Russian officials and oil companies. In May, Russia is recovering after a robust decline in oil output and exports in March and April. Despite more modest production and fewer supplies abroad in 2022, Russia does not forecast any decline in profits, which is due to high tariffs.

Gazprom’s Record Earnings Mean High Dividends

Gazprom’s Record Earnings Mean High Dividends

Russian gas giant Gazprom said on May 26 its board was recommending a dividend of 52.53 roubles per share on its 2021 results. The company added an annual general meeting of shareholders is due to approve the dividend on June 30. The 2021 gas crisis was beneficial for the Russian gas giant and so is the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Gas prices are still high while most EU countries still buy Russian-sourced gas even in forced to pay in roubles.

Russian Ally Serbia Says Yes To Russian Gas, No To Sanctions

Russian Ally Serbia Says Yes To Russian Gas, No To Sanctions

The authorities in Belgrade have consistently refused to impose sanctions on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, Serbia wants to join the European Union and has more robust economic ties with the bloc than Russia. But what changes the whole picture is political and security-related considerations. Moscow is throwing support to Serbia’s revisionist efforts and plays a leading role in the nation’s energy industry.

Ex-Moldovan President Dodon Charged

Ex-Moldovan President Dodon Charged

Igor Dodon, a former president of Moldova, is a Putin ally. The criminal case against him, paired with corruption and treason charges, could shake the already fragile political landscape in Chisinau. Targeting a pro-Russian Moldovan party leader at this time might not be incidental. Efforts to neutralize a domestic threat amid provocations in Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria could now be the best solution for Moldova’s pro-Western authorities.

Putin’s Illegal Plan for Issuing Russian Passports in Russian-Occupied Regions of Ukraine

Putin’s Illegal Plan for Issuing Russian Passports in Russian-Occupied Regions of Ukraine

Russia simplified the procedure for issuing passports to Ukrainian people living in Russian-occupied regions. This is another piece of evidence for Russian efforts to occupy the Kherson region and most of the Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions to formally add them to the Russian Federation. Russia deploys its administration there and introduces its currency while the Russian army is taking fortified positions in Moscow-occupied southern Ukrainian regions.

The Case of Gerhard Schroeder, Or The German Hypocrisy

The Case of Gerhard Schroeder, Or The German Hypocrisy

Out of a sudden, Germany’s governing parties plan to strip former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder of his office and staff after he maintained and defended his long-standing ties with Russia. He has come under increasing pressure from media outlets and other politicians, notably those of the CDU. Now they all suddenly found outrageous what had been known for years–––the German ex-leader used his reputation to stage lobby for Russian interests.

Russian Troops Want To Cut Off Ukrainians By Donets River

Russian Troops Want To Cut Off Ukrainians By Donets River

With their attacks on the town of Popasna, Russian forces possibly seek to cut off the Severodonetsk-based Ukrainian battalion on the Donets River from the rest of the country. Perhaps the Russians would cut Ukrainian forces off between the cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. But what is advantageous to Ukrainian is the geographical location of the northern wing, where the swampy valley of the Donets River is a major obstacle for Russian battalions.

After Russian Cutoffs, European Countries Face Gas Conundrum

After Russian Cutoffs, European Countries Face Gas Conundrum

Gazprom’s halted gas deliveries to Bulgaria and perhaps soon Moldova made eastern Balkan countries look for some alternatives. One could be an increased flow of liquefied natural gas (LNG) through Greek terminals, currently under construction. Another might consist in expanding gas facilities to deliver more gas from Azerbaijan. In addition, Romania says it will produce much gas once it starts extracting from the Black Sea shelf. The easiest and fastest solution is the second of them, though. Greece-based LNG terminals will be operational in a year and a half. It is only in four years that Romania is poised to become a gas exporter.

South Ossetia’s Cumbersome Referendum After Leader Quits

South Ossetia’s Cumbersome Referendum After Leader Quits

The leader of Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia set July 17 as a date for a referendum on joining Russia. Anatoliy Bibilov, who has been the de facto president of South Ossetia, yet lost to his top challenger who is against a vote on whether or not to join Russia. The sham referendum is a headache for Russia, being an obstacle to rapprochement efforts made by Georgia’s ruling party. If the Kremlin is seeking to please Putin, it could be through claiming some Caucasian regions from Georgia while possibly ripping some lands from Ukraine.

Putin Appoints Acting Governors In Display Of Power

Putin Appoints Acting Governors In Display Of Power

Frustrated at the failure of Russia’s army to quickly defeat Ukraine and Western sanctions against Moscow, the Kremlin is making efforts to consolidate its grip on the regions. Russian President Vladimir Putin made his supporters acting governors of five regions while much is now said about eliminating popular regional elections across the country.

Ukraine’s Kharkiv Offensive Foiled Russian Plans

Ukraine’s Kharkiv Offensive Foiled Russian Plans

The Ukrainian offensive near Kharkiv, which started in early May, is the first large-scale operation Kyiv started since the war has broken out. Indeed, Ukrainian forces recaptured considerable areas in the country’s north and northeast from where Russian troops had withdrawn. By their successful assault east of Kharkiv and some earlier efforts throughout the region, Ukrainian forces show their attempts to seize areas in the south are not just an empty boast.

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