RUSSIA MONITOR MONTHLY 05/2021
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Idlib Air Raids Continue As Negotiations Come to Standstill
Syrian government and allied Russian warplanes intensified in late April and early May bombardment of Syria’s rebel-held Idlib province and neighboring regions, killing dozens of civilians. And yet, the issue of the rebel-controlled enclave has come to a standstill due to Turkey’s calls for stopping the invasion by government forces, backed by Iranian and Russian allies.
Russian GRU Agents Found Guilty of Attempted Montenegro Coup
A court in Podgorica found a group of people guilty of plotting a coup aimed at overthrowing the Montenegrin authorities back in the autumn of 2016. Armed attacks were planned and carried out under the supervision of Russian military intelligence officers. As initially planned, Serbian nationalists were supposed to trigger off a storm on the parliament building and assassinate the Montenegrin prime minister.
Poland in Strategic Relations between the European Union and the Balkans
We constantly support the European Union, built on the ideas of companionship and mutual respect for diversity and sovereignty of states. These principles, therefore, have also become the foundation of the plans of our Berlin Process presidency – the aim of which is to encourage the countries of the Western Balkans to join the European Community.
The Crimean Factor: How the European Union Reacted to Russia’s Annexation of Crimea
The current level of rather distanced relations between the European Union and Russia started to take shape five years ago. Russia’s continuing disregard for international law, aggression against Ukraine, and hostile activities against Western countries have resulted in policies of sanctions and other restrictions.
To What Extent Is Russia Cutting Military Spending?
Russia’s 2018 military expenditure dropped, marking the falling tendency for a third consecutive year, the latest report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) revealed. Pessimists in Moscow have already sounded the alarm, claiming that Russia halts further military spending while those of other countries have recently rocketed.
The First Disagreement Between Zelensky and the Parliament
The first meeting of the president-elect and representatives of parliamentary groups have reached an impasse. It seems that most deputies do not want to allow the inauguration to happen on May 19. If the Verkhovna Rada decides that Zelensky takes office after May 27, he will lose the right to dissolve the parliament before the end of its term and the elections will take place in autumn.
Washington-Riyadh Relations
In 1940, the United States established formal diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, yet both countries managed to develop bilateral ties seven years before along with the Saudi go-ahead for U.S. oil exploration and the creation of a joint U.S.-Saudi oil company Aramco. Currently wholly owned by Saudi Arabia, the oil colossus have long cemented the alliance between Washington and Riyadh.
Russia Monitor Monthly 04/2019
All April Russia Monitor articles, which include reviews of the most important events related to Russian security and its foreign policy, available in one file.
Referendum or Election Campaign?
President Klaus Iohannis has announced that a referendum on changes in the judiciary will be held soon. A low voter turnout may be a real obstacle to the implementation of his propositions. The plebiscite will certainly be part of an election campaign just before the autumn parliamentary elections.
Civil War in Libya: Russian Goals and Policy
Libya is considered the third most destabilized Arab country only to Syria and Yemen. The violent battle for the country’s capital city of Tripoli erupted in early April, opening a new chapter in Libya’s civil war that had broken out back in 2014. After a NATO-backed operation that removed the Gaddafi regime from power, the international community has yet wrongfully give Libya’s further fate into the hands of its inhabitants.
More F-16 jets for Romania
Romanian Ministry of Defence decided to buy another five F-16 fighting aircraft. Similarly as with the previous purchases, this concerns second-hand units from Portugal. In total, Romania will have seventeen aircraft of this kind. Ultimately, American F-16 jets are to fully replace obsolete MiG 21.
Russia Monitor Monthly 03/2019
All March Russia Monitor articles, which include reviews of the most important events related to Russian security and its foreign policy, available in one file.
“Dirty Oil in the Druzhba Pipeline Could Be Sabotage”
At a joint meeting of the operators of the Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline, Russian pipeline monopoly Transneft informed that the oil pollution was intentional. Belarussian refineries were made to halve oil production due to high levels of organic chloride detected in oil while Polish and Ukrainian operators halted oil transit.
Were Top FSB Officials Jailed over Oligarchs’ Struggle?
A top Russian FSB official in charge in the banking sphere has recently been arrested along with two fellow officers holding positions in the same department. Their detainments may be part of a large-scale operation against Ivan Tkachev, the head of the FSB’s Department K. Also, these activities might have been commissioned by a Lubyanka influential officer, reportedly close to the Rotenberg brothers.
Denmark Helps Ukraine to Maintain Current Gas Transit Levels
Copenhagen’s latest declaration to delay granting permission for the construction of the Nord Stream 2 in Denmark’s exclusive economic zone in the Baltic is bound to translate into a delayed implementation of the project. After a Russian-Ukrainian gas transit contract expires at the end of 2019, Gazprom will be prevented from lessening the amount of gas exported to Europe through the Ukrainian pipeline network.
More NATO Troops in Estonia
Between April and May, the Estonian army and its NATO allies are going to take part in military drills in Estonia. For this reason, in April, four multinational battalion battle groups stationing at Tapa Army Base were reinforced.
No More “Teflon” Putin: President’s Plunging Popularity
A recent poll showed a negative tendency for the Russian regime, revealing the fall in Putin’s popular support and giving no prospects for enhancing the public image of the president. The Kremlin has yet much time to reverse the unfavorable trend, though. The problem is that the present-day slump in Putin’s approval ratings differs from comparable periods under his rules in the past.
Rosneft’s Sechin Makes Promises for the Arctic
Russia’s largest oil company Rosneft has recently made a formal offer to make the country’s Northern Sea Route a strategically important and economically viable maritime shipping lane. Its development should be partially possible thanks to Rosneft’s increased mining activity in Russia’s Far North. Sechin’s firm has declared its readiness to invest in the Arctic provided that it gains solid guarantees from the Kremlin.
Passport provocation in Donbas. What lies behind Putin’s decision?
Vladimir Putin has signed a decree simplifying the procedure of granting Russian citizenship to the residents of the occupied part of Donbas (so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics). Moscow supports this decision by humanitarian reasons, but Kiev and the West claim that this is a provocation or even preparation for the annexation of the region.
Russia Performs a Military Buildup on Its Western Flank
Russian Defense Ministry has declared its plans to boost its military buildup in the Baltic part of the Western Military District. Although Moscow claimed such intention to serve as a defensive response to the Alliance’s activity in the Baltic region, both composition and deployment of Russian forces may imply their aptness to be used in the event of a war.
Warsaw Institute
