RUSSIA MONITOR MONTHLY 05/2018
Contents
Turkmenbashi Sea Port: New Road to Central Asia
The launching of a large commercial port on the Caspian Sea coast has a great signifiance not only for Turkmenistan whose authorities have been pursuing a strategy of economic opening to external markets.
Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream. Geopolitics and Putin’s People Profit
Gazprom’s big infrastructure projects are another way of transferring state funds to the pockets of Vladimir Putin’s friends. It is not the first time when geopolitics (understood as the desire to seriously harm the rebellious Ukraine) serves to conceal Russia’s kleptocracy.
Timchenko vs. Sechin. Conflict between Putin’s Friends
Russia’s private gas producer Novatek and state-owned oil giant Rosneft have recently been united by the struggle with Gazprom’s monopoly. However, it is only a tactical alliance, as evidenced by contradictory interests of Gennady Timchenko and Igor Sechin in the field of petrochemistry.
GRU and Kursk Brigade: MH17 Hits Putin’s Plan
The political course introduced by Vladimir Putin at the beginning of his new presidential term has already appeared to be quite unsuccessful. The case of MH17 crash seems to indicate that the Kremlin will find it extremely difficult to “warm up” its relations with the West as Moscow does not intend to admit violating international law or to acknowledge its criminal activities in Ukraine.
Russia’s Costly Alliance with Assad Ends up with Bloody Slip-up
At least nine killed soldiers and mercenaries were killed in the battle against jihadists in eastern Syria. The bloody fight ended with Moscow’s another slip-up that occurred less than a week after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad visit to the Black Sea resort city of Sochi.
St. Petersburg: Progress in Relations between Gazprom and Germany
Talks between the leadership of Gazprom with heads of German gas companies constitute yet another sign that both parties aim to accelerate the implementation of their joint projects.
Lukoil Retreats from Iran
Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement and to re-impose sanctions on the country is now changing strategies of many companies around the world. Russian enterprises are no exception to the rule; the country’s oil company Lukoil has recently announced that it would withdraw from two of its Iranian projects.
Brussels Merciful to Gazprom. End of EU Energy Solidarity
After longtime proceedings, the European Commission stated that Russia’s energy giant Gazprom had been using monopolistic practices on the EU market. In the recent agreement with Russians, Brussels confirmed that for many years the EU had been divided into two categories of states.
Russian Government: New Generation of Siloviki
The composition of a new cabinet presented by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to President Vladimir Putin draws special attention to two new faces among ministers. Both politicians are associated with special services and both consider the promotion to the cabinet to be yet another important step in developing their political careers.
Another Conflict Between Rosneft and China
Igor Sechin’s reassurances about tightening cooperation between Rosneft and China are becoming less and less real. Not only did the sale of Russian company’s shares to the Chinese appeared to be unsuccessful, but Beijing also fiercely criticised Rosneft’s operations in another country.
Prognosis for Russia’s Petroleum Policy
The composition of Russia’s new government and situation on the world oil market suggest that the country will maintain the current course in this economic sector. It can be proven by the agreement on limiting oil extraction; according to the rule that if something functions well and brings profits, it should not be improved.
Russia Keeps Threatening the USA with Atomic Bombers
After a long break, Russian strategic bombers again appeared in the coastal zone of North America. According to the US Northern Command, On May 11, Two Tu-95 were intercepted by American fighters near Alaska.
Trump, Iran and More Petrodollars for Russia
World oil prices are rising and so are the income to Russia’s budget. This is great news for the government and Vladimir Putin at the beginning of his new presidential term. Currently, Russian oil exporters earn one third more than six years ago. Does it mean that funds necessary to implement an ambitious “May decree” will be attainable?
Caspian Flotilla Sails South
Russia’s Defence Ministry has decided to relocate the main base of the Caspian Flotilla from the city of Astrakhan at the northern end of the sea to the city of Kaspiysk in Dagestan located about 400 kilometres south. In this way, the Flotilla will be closer to the unstable Middle East region.
Truth about Russian Military Budget
The latest news from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) about a drastic drop in Russia’s military spending has caused a great stir in the country. However, it seems to be unjustified for a number of reasons. Firstly, the reduction is not as big as described in the report of the Swedish think tank.
Putin’s Surprising Inauguration
The beginning of the Vladimir Putin’s new presidential term may mean a shift in the Kremlin’s policy. Swearing-in was of technical, rather than “tsarist” nature and in his speech, Mr Putin focused on domestic matters, problems of ordinary people and ambitions of Russian development but he did not mention any military or geopolitical issues.
Populist Decree or Putin’s Intrigue
Just after his inauguration for another six years, Vladimir Putin signed a decree on Russia’s socio-economic development. In the document, he has determined a long list of extraordinarily ambitious goals for the government, such as introducing Russia into the top five of the world’s largest economies.
Temporary Government: Medvedev and His Deputies
As expected, the new Russian government will consist of majorly the same people as the old one; prime minister, as well as many ministers and a part of deputy PMs remain the same. But the positions of deputies are to undergo the biggest alternations.
Qatar saves Rosneft from Chinese fiasco
State fund of Qatar decided to buy almost 19 percent of Rosneft shares after the failed attempt of selling them to a company from China. Even though Russia will portray this as a success and beginning of strategic involvement of Qatar into Russian gas-oil market
Russia and Pakistan to Strengthen Cooperation
In addition to its increased activity in Afghanistan, Moscow keeps improving relations with Pakistan, its Cold War era foe. Worse relations between Islamabad and Washington mean warmer ties of the former with Moscow.
Warsaw Institute
