Russia Monitor Monthly 2/23
Content
Russia Takes Inventory Of Its Natural Resources
Russia’s natural resources and environment ministry and energy ministry specified the exact amount of crude oil in the country. Russian Natural Resources Minister Alexander Kozlov said the country should continue geological research to find new deposits despite a global tendency to gradually shift away from crude oil and gas.
Russia Faces Renewed Covid-19 Surge
While many countries around the globe are experiencing the fourth Covid-19 wave, Russia is still struggling with the third one. Russia saw the highest monthly coronavirus death toll of the pandemic in July 2021, with 50,000 people dying from Covid-19.
Putin Gives Cash Before State Duma Elections: More For Siloviki, Less For Pensioners
Russian President Vladimir Putin called for one-off cash payments to be awarded to Russia’s pensioners and military service personnel in a highly anticipated pre-election move. The payments will total more than 500 billion roubles. The Kremlin and the government are doing whatever they can to give the ruling party the best possible result in the upcoming vote.
Russia Deploys Missile Forces To Grodno, Belarus
Russia and Belarus are putting into practice their military cooperation deal both have concluded this spring. Units of the anti-aircraft missile forces of the Russian Federation arrived in Grodno to create three joint “combat training centers” for the air force and air defense forces of the two states. Thus for the first time in many years, Russia is beefing up its permanent military presence in Belarus.
Pegasus Affair: Who Was Wiretapped in the Middle East?
The case of Pegasus, an Israeli software that allows various intelligence services in its possession worldwide to infect and take control over almost any device, returned again in mid-July 2021. According to the latest reports, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have used it extremely often, both to monitor their own citizens (particularly those critical of their own governments) as well as politicians of other countries, especially from Egypt and Iraq.
Chinese-Russian Axis In Afghanistan
Russia and China are now following a coordinated policy towards the rapidly developing situation in Afghanistan. Both countries have been long in contact with the Taliban, seeking friendly ties with Afghanistan’s new government and business deals in the country. Meanwhile, Moscow and Beijing are right to voice concern over the Taliban policy in the future while staying aware of possible threats Islamic fundamentalists pose to Afghanistan.
German Court Rejects Russian Nord Stream 2’s Appeal
A German court in Düsseldorf has rejected an appeal by Nord Stream 2 AG to allow its pipeline to be exempt from the EU’s gas directive rules. Thus Russia will be unable to use the full transport capacities of the new gas pipeline once it is launched soon. This will not affect EU customers, but Gazprom will still have to send large gas flows through Ukraine.
Russia Stiffens Stance On The Taliban
Moscow’s recent decisions show it hesitates whether the Taliban will meet their commitments to stop the Islamic expansions northwards to Central Asian countries. The Russian military is beefing up its Tajik base, Vladimir Putin says Islamic factions could “infiltrate” the region while the country’s deputy foreign minister adds that Moscow is not racing to recognize the Taliban as Afghanistan’s rulers.
China–Arab States Expo: The Latest Event of the New Silk Road
The fifth China–Arab States Expo, held in Yinchuan, the capital of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (Northwest China), concluded on August 23, 2021. During the four-day event, 277 agreements worth CNY 156.7 billion (around USD 24 billion) concerning digital economy, clean energy, agriculture, cross-border e-commerce, and tourism, were signed. Chinese President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory letter to the organizers of the trade fair.
Tensions Rise Along NATO Border In The Run-Up To Zapad-2021 Drills
Communication forces kickstarted their part of the joint Russia-Belarus military exercise on August 26 in the run-up to the Zapad-2021 war games. Some Russian soldiers are already in Belarus while in the August 23 phone call, Vladimir Putin exchanged views on the drills with Alexander Lukashenko.
Crimea Platform: Ukraine’s Success, Russia’s Defeat
Inaugurated on August 23 in Kyiv, a worldwide platform causes serious headache to Russia and its reputation. Not only does the world refuse to recognize Moscow’s occupation of Crimea, but the issue is also gaining new momentum as the Crimea Platform was set up. That is the triumph of Ukraine’s authorities and symbol of Zelensky’s firm policy as the Ukrainian president does not focus solely on Donbas in his country’s ties with Moscow but also bring back the peninsula to the international agenda.
Antony Blinken and Wang Yi Hold Talks on Afghanistan
On Monday, August 16, a telephone conversation was held between Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. Its main topic was the tense situation in Afghanistan.
More Chinese Vaccines Head to Thailand
Faced with a surge of COVID-19 cases, the Thai government announced on August 17, 2021, that it will purchase 12 million vaccines from the Chinese company Sinovac Biotech. This is part of Thailand’s plan to combat the pandemic, which includes mixing vaccines from different manufacturers.
Nord Stream 2: U.S., Germany Make Fictitious Moves, Putin Triumphs
While Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin made a symbolic deal to the completion of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, the United States imposed new sanctions on the project. They do not change much while the gas pipeline is set to be completed any day now. Moscow does not conceal that not only will it scrap the existing transit deal with Ukraine after it expires, but also it has no intention of meeting its commitments by 2024. It is pointless for Merkel and the EU to promise to do their utmost to make Russia continue sending gas through Ukraine.
U.S. Failure In Afghanistan Runs Bigger Risk Of War In Ukraine
Possible Russian aggression gives rise to increasing concerns in Kyiv. First, the United States gave its green light to complete the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline that is a great danger to Ukraine. Now Washington is displaying helplessness in Afghanistan, which may encourage its enemies to take aggressive steps. Among them could be Russia, prone to attack Ukraine.
Covid-19: Delta Variant Takes Heavy Toll In Russia
New days are bringing more than 800 new coronavirus deaths in Russia. The number of new infections remains high, too. The authorities do not know how to persuade people to get vaccinated. The poor vaccination rate in Russia and an uptick fueled by the Delta variant are both responsible for the surge in new cases across the country.
Illegal Migration: A New Weapon?
After Donald Trump ordered to build his famous wall, illegal traffic dropped by roughly 90 percent between 2019 and 2020 in Yuma, Arizona. It is not an isolated example of ad-hoc measures to counter modern border threats to state security. A slew of EU and NATO countries, including Lithuania, Estonia, and Hungary, followed suit.
Russia Introduces New Sanctions, “Taking Revenge For Crimea Platform”
A few hours after German Chancellor Angela Merkel left Moscow, the Russian government published a new extended list of sanctions on Ukrainian officials. Kyiv says Moscow is taking its revenge for the Crimea Platform summit, scheduled for August 23. Merkel had been in Ukraine a day before.
Canadian Businessman Convicted of Espionage in China
On August 11, 2021, a court in the Chinese city of Dandong sentenced Canadian businessman Michael Spavor to 11 years in prison on espionage charges. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau described the sentence as “unjust” and “absolutely unacceptable.”
Russia Welcomes Positive Signals From Taliban
Russia has now a positive opinion about the new authorities in Afghanistan, seeking effective cooperation with the Taliban. For Moscow, it would be best for the Taliban to involve other political forces in forming a new government.
Warsaw Institute
