Russia Monitor Monthly 7/23
Content
Russia Provokes Turkey In Syria’s Idlib
Russian aircraft have carried out a strike – the bloodiest surge in violence – in the stronghold of Syria’s rebel forces, also targeting rebel proxies siding with Turkey. What Russia has done might prompt the escalation in Syria’s Idlib. Perhaps Russia seeks to get upsides with Turkey over the latter’s involvement in the Azerbaijan-Armenia fighting.
Day 77 & 78 – Tsikhanouskaya’s General Strike
Over 300 demonstrators were detained in Minsk, Brest, Grodno, Mogilev and Lida on Monday. If the opposition hoped that the strike would turn into a real general strike on its first day, it was wrong.
Balkan Stream Or TurkStream: Bulgaria Is Under U.S. Pressure
U.S. sanctions targeting the Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream natural gas pipeline may have severe repercussions for Bulgaria that is now building the Balkan leg of the latter energy link. The authorities in Sofia say that the Balkan Stream gas link is a separate project to TurkStream. The United States, however, believes something different.
Baltic States Versus Russian Hybrid Threats
The threat from Russia’s foreign and security policy relying upon the strategic concept of rebuilding the sphere of influence in the countries of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, or USSR, is what connects internal security of the Baltic States – Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.
The Illusion of “Frozen Conflicts” in the Post-Soviet Area
The post-Soviet area, although it avoided the Balkan scenario and was not the scene of great ethnic conflicts, did not avoid the outbreak of local nationalist struggles. Their characteristic feature is the low frequency of military action, which is why they are called “frozen conflicts.”
Lukoil Freezes Crude Projects Over Low Oil Prices
The situation on the global oil market has taken its toll on crude projects, also in Russia. As there are huge crude stocks whilst oil price is stable at roughly $40 per barrel, oil output is little profitable and so is looking for new fields.
Day 75 & 76 – Clock is Ticking for Lukashenko
Although clock is ticking for Lukashenko as there are only two days left behind People’s Ultimatum, the dictator plays unbothered visiting the Slutsk region visit fields, farms and pursue the planned “tastings.”
Lukashenko Plays Against Time in Russia Game
Alexander Lukashenko has no intention of handing full power to Russia. Regardless of what he agreed on with Vladimir Putin during the September visit to Sochi, it is still challenging to imagine Russia taking control of Belarus, a scenario many projected until quite recently.
U.S., Russia Play Cat And Mouse Over New START Treaty
Concluded by the Barack Obama administration, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) is the last remaining U.S.-Russian arms control treaty. It will expire in February 2021.
GRU Hackers and Conspiracy Theories of Russian Intelligence Chief
There are more and more strains appearing in U.S.-Russia ties. First, the U.S. Justice Department announced an indictment against six Russian GRU officers charged with engaging in a series of hacking and malware deployment operations to attack the United States and the whole civilized world.
WI Daily News – Polish Foreign Minister and German ambassador discussed bilateral relations
Daily dose of the most important news regarding Polish international cooperation, affairs & activity abroad.
China and Australia are on a Collision Course
Since the beginning of the 21st century, Australia has established intensive trade relations with China, becoming one of the main suppliers of raw materials for the largest economy in Asia. As the power of the PRC has grown and tensions in Beijing’s relations with Washington have escalated, the China-Australia relations has clearly deteriorated.
Day 74 – Belarusian protesters awarded by European Parliament
Minsk’s Director for Metropolitan Security signed an order from the government requesting nearly all of the city to be closed. This means that all metro stations will be out of service on October 25, the day People’s Ultimatum ends.
U.S. Widens Sanctions Against Nord Stream 2
The U.S. administration is making consistent efforts to annihilate the Russia-to-Germany gas link across the Baltic Sea. As eliminating other-than-Russian-flagged vessels from the game proved little effective––since Russia deployed its own fleet––the United States stepped up sanctions against companies having anything to do with those vessels.
HRW Syria Report: Putin Responsible for War Crimes
In its report, Human Rights Watch (HRW) has accused the Syria-Russia alliance of committing possible war crimes and crimes against humanity by attacking civilians in Idlib province.
Russia, OPEC+ Show Cautious Optimism on Crude Volumes
Oil cuts in force under the OPEC+ deal will remain unchanged for the time being, at least until November 17, 2020, thus the next meeting of the ministerial monitoring committee on crude oil limitations. “We reached an agreement to continue executing the deal in full scope,” Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak informed.
WI Daily News – Choice of nuclear technology in Poland – US deal
Daily dose of the most important news regarding Polish international cooperation, affairs & activity abroad.
Day 73 – Lukashenko running out of time
Lukashenko puts everything at stake and plans to organise a mega rally against the opposition in Minsk. According to the reports, regional authorities have received an order which obliged them to provide a certain number of participants to the rally.
Day 72 – Tsikhanouskaya Calls on the Law Enforcement, Lukashenko Threatens the Protesters
On Tuesday, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya called on the law enforcement to switch sides and join the protesters by the end of the week. The informal leader of the opposition promised the officers that they would avoid being vetted after the overthrow of Lukashenko.
President of the Warsaw Institute in an interview for the Start2think project
Julia Grzybowska, President of the Warsaw Institute Foundation, gave an interview for the Start2think project carried out by the Center for International Relations in cooperation with the European Projects Association, Informo and Res Publica, which aims to increase the awareness of European Union citizens about media literacy and combating disinformation.
Warsaw Institute
