RUSSIA MONITOR MONTHLY 5/2020
Contents
Welcome to Cyberwar
Sponsored by the KGB, the world’s first ever cyber operation Cuckoo’s Egg took place in 1986 – as commissioned by the Soviet services. Two decades later, hacks became an inherent tool in a repertoire used by the conflicting states. While writing his famous phrase “Welcome to cyberwar” in September 2010, Ralph Langner began a brand-new era of armed conflict.
From the History of the Belarusian Revolution
Mass protests following the rigged presidential election turned out to be the largest opposition movement against the authorities in the history of independent Belarus. Although Alexander Lukashenko continues to hold the reins of government, he lost legitimization and the majority of Belarusians are against him.
US Presidential Election 2020. Principles, Specificity, Influence on Foreign Policy
On November 3, the 2020 United States presidential election will be held. The main rivals are the current President Donald Trump, representing the Republican Party, and Joe Biden, a Democrat known primarily for his role as the Vice President under Barack Obama.
Baltic States Versus Russian Hybrid Threats
The threat from Russia’s foreign and security policy relying upon the strategic concept of rebuilding the sphere of influence in the countries of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, or USSR, is what connects internal security of the Baltic States – Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.
Can Western Balkans Serve as Role Model of Integration for Eastern Partnership?
The article is a follow-up to the text by the Jagiellonian Club Przez Bałkany do Brukseli? Przyszłość Partnerstwa Wschodniego [Through the Balkans to Brussels? The future of the Eastern Partnership] whose authors compared the potential of the Western Balkans and the three outstanding Eastern Partnership nations.
The Awakening Of Private Military Companies
Private military companies, or PMCs, are independent corporations that trade military services through a wide range of opportunities they have due to their corporate nature.
Iraq’s Two Rivers
To those with tenacity to remain hopeful of a peaceful and stable political-operational situation in Iraq, taking seriously the cold and brutal geopolitical realities could benefit from some creative thinking. Incomplete information is a given in policymaking decisions. Fortunately, the solutions need not be perfect – just good enough.
Putin’s Constitution
With a constitutional overhaul of the balance of power in Russia, Vladimir Putin is pushing to consolidate his eternal grip on power. As Russia is seeing a slew of rifts in its politics, economy as well as social matters, any attempts to repeat its past ‘tandemocracy’, or the joint leadership of Russia between 2008 and 2012, are considered by the Kremlin as far too risky.
Russia Faces Biggest Military Threat From West, Shoigu Says
If the Russian army is bracing for war, the one will be with the West, as hinted by the recent board meeting of the country’s defense ministry.
Russia, Belarus Squabble Over Gas Deliveries In New Chapter of Energy War
Belarus seeks to buy Russian gas for less, starting this year. Russian state energy group Gazprom is yet wary of resuming talks on an agreement it concluded with Belarus back in February, saying it will sit at a negotiating table only after the issue of Belarus’ gas debt is settled.
Russia–NATO Tensions Continue On Both Flanks
Russian aircraft have made a number of provocative moves both in the Baltic Sea, as well as along the bloc’s southern wing, in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. There are more and more reports of Russian jets seizing NATO planes.
Russia Aims To Boost Military Facilities in Syria
The Kremlin has decided to put an end to the years-long rivalry between its foreign and defense ministries in Syria. President Vladimir Putin reportedly tasked both with securing additional land and naval rights in Syria.
Russian Economy Comes Badly Because Of Pandemic
Russia imposed a “non-working” period across the country at the end of April in a move that lowered the country’s industrial output and – along with an energy crisis and a shaky Russian economy – thus heaping pressure on the country’s financial strength.
Gazprom Is Turning Towards China, But There Are Problems
With the gloomy prospects for the European gas market, Gazprom is making efforts to send more energy eastwards. Beijing is keen to buy more gas from Russia, yet it is wary of subsidizing Gazprom’s fresh energy projects.
Rosneft, Transneft In New Feud Over Transportation Tariffs
The CEO of Rosneft, Russia’s crude oil major, made a proposal to cut transportation tariffs via the pipeline network that is managed by the Russian oil pipeline monopoly Transneft. The latter firm said these hit to a record-low level, with money flowing out from the federal budget, into pockets of private shareholders.
Tensions Rise in the Black Sea
Moscow’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine has built up Russia’s military capabilities in the Black Sea. Not only did the Kremlin push Ukraine out from the basin, but it also made its way for testing its missiles there.
Russia Unveils Rescue Plan for Oil Sector
Russia is dependent on trading hydrocarbons, while the overall condition of the country’s oil sector serves a pivotal role in its entire economy. It has always been favored by the state. Certainly this seems apparent as the world has plunged into a deep crisis.
Coronavirus in Russia: Bad News for the Country
Russia is bound to witness a spike in mortality in the coming days. With new infections beginning to dip in many regions, local officials are now struggling to balance measures to prevent the virus.
Russia’s Rosneft Has New Ownership Structure But Same CEO
Russia’s biggest state-run crude oil company Rosneft officially confirmed it saw the shift in its ownership structure – and is now no longer controlled by the state after the Rosneftegaz state holding company had relinquished its controlling stake.
Belarus Ramps up Diversification Efforts with U.S. and Gulf Crude Purchases
Minsk’s oil price spat with Moscow pushed Belarus’s Lukashenko towards an oil alternative. Belarusians have begun importing crude oil from elsewhere. This step could mark the end of Russian energy hegemony.
Warsaw Institute
