RUSSIA MONITOR MONTHLY 05/2021
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Iranian Principlists
Iranian Principlists are a very heterogeneous party. The division into radicals and pragmatists is quite general. Within each of these blocs are parties and groups with conflicting interests, competing for influence and resources. The rift between them is also becoming more pronounced. This is particularly true of the increasingly clericalized radical wing. Repeated attempts to unite before elections have always failed. Moreover, they have never managed to unite around a single presidential candidate.
Anniversary of the China-North Korea Treaty
Sunday, July 11, 2021 marked the 60th anniversary of the signing of the China-DPRK Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance. It was an opportunity to exchange diplomatic courtesies between the leaders of the two countries. The partnership between them is still working well, despite the passage of time, but it has some disadvantages too.
Chinese Media and US Independence Day
July 4 is Independence Day in the United States. The media outlets in China used this anniversary to, yet again, criticize America.
Joe Biden’s Approach: The Paris Agreement
Joe Biden’s first decision after moving into the White House was reversing president Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. This might have signalled a new break in the importance of climate policy—but did it really? In order to convince the world to trust his newfound focus on climate policy, President Biden will have to act on his promises with bold decision in the near future.
Iranian Political Parties, Factions, and Divisions
Initially, the post-revolutionary political parties were formed on the basis of groups fighting against the monarchy. Their members and founders had often stayed in imperial prisons, were the victims of the secret police (SAVAK), etc. Nowadays, parties are more elite organizations with a limited number of members and wavering supporters. Party coalitions have so far been ephemeral and formed on an ad hoc basis, before certain elections. In the Iranian political reality, the point of reference is not the parties but specific individuals and groups formed around them.
Event Summary: Migration Challenges for the EU – V4 Perspective
Migration challenges for the EU from the perspective of the V4 countries were the main topic of the online event organized on July 5, 2021 by the think-tank Warsaw Institute in cooperation with the Migration Research Institute. The guest of Tomasz Kijewski, the president of the Warsaw Institute, was Szabolcs Janik, Deputy Director at the Migration Research Institute.
Phishing – Cyber Extortion Aimed at Politicians
In 1971, almost two decades before the World Wide Web, Ray Tomlinson sent a message to himself on the ARPANET saying “something like QWERTYUIOP.” It is considered to be the first ever email. Internet mail and its functionality have evolved considerably over half a century, but its core principle has remained unchanged.
Russian Interference in the U.S. Presidential Elections in 2016 and 2020 as an Attempt to Implement a Revolution-like Information Warfare Scheme
Information warfare is tantamount to active measures. While adapting Western theories and terminology, Russians make assumptions aligned with their domestic needs. The whole procedure is designed to conceal methods and tools Soviet spy agencies had brushed up for decades, as confirmed by the authors of the study drafted under the auspices of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation.
Putin Vows Support To Lukashenko Amid EU Sanctions
Russia offers comprehensive assistance to Belarus, notably when the European Union introduces sanctions on Lukashenko’s regime, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on July 1. Putin and Lukashenko first had a phone call and then met at the Forum of Regions of Russia and Belarus via video conference.
Event Summary: Piłsudski, Dmowski, and Paderewski – the Fathers of Polish Independence and Their Vision of the Country
On June 29, 2021, a debate took place and included the following participants: Jan Wiśniewski, PhD – coordinator of the Regional Centre for International Debate in Toruń, lecturer at the College of Social and Media Culture in Toruń; Karol Wołek – chairman of the Kazimierz Wielki Foundation, the Kazimierz Wielki Association, the Main Board of the Union of Soldiers of National Armed Forces, and the Amor Patriae Foundation; as well as Jakub Lachert – expert of the Warsaw Institute. The debate was moderated by Tomasz Kijewski – president of the Warsaw Institute.
The Nuances of Iranian Politics
When describing Iranian politics, it is impossible to ignore one of its most controversial elements – the Guardian Council. The 12-member Council is a team of lawyers – half of its members include clergy who specialize in religious law and who are, of course, appointed by the rahbar. The other half are specialists in “secular” law, nominated by the Supreme Judicial Council and appointed by the Majlis.
A Thaw in Relations Between Warsaw and Beijing?
In 2021, we may observe a gradual improvement in relations between Warsaw and Beijing. This is indicated by a number of factors, most notably the increasing frequency of talks and high-level meetings, during which more openness to cooperation and the maintenance of current joint initiatives was expressed. However, this is not synonymous with a change of course in Poland’s foreign policy.
Putin’s Ukraine Complex Again Makes Itself Felt
The Russian president once again confirmed how painful it is for him to see Ukraine decide for itself and not yield to Moscow’s pressure. Addressing the nation during an annual televised call-in show, Putin came back to an old rhetoric that Ukrainians were not a separate nation, attacking the pro-Western government in Kyiv and claiming the country was “managed from the outside”.
Russia Pumps Less Crude Oil
Russian oil and gas condensate output stood at 1,421,600 tons per day in June, a drop by 6,400 tons compared with May. But even though Russia does not comply 100 percent with the OPEC+ deal to cut output quotas.
Pandemic Crisis Hits Russia Amid Failed Vaccination Campaign
Although the Delta variant is sweeping across the globe, Western countries are slowly recovering from the coronavirus pandemic. Meanwhile, Russia is now struggling with a more and more dramatic situation. The country saw its highest daily death toll since the outbreak of the pandemic while the nation remains dramatically under-vaccinated compared to other major world states. Yet Russia became the first country in the world to pride itself on developing a vaccine against coronavirus.
A Thaw in Relations Between Warsaw and Beijing? – Podcast
In 2021, we may observe a gradual improvement in relations between Warsaw and Beijing. This is indicated by a number of factors, most notably the increasing frequency of talks and high-level meetings, during which more openness to cooperation and the maintenance of current joint initiatives was expressed. However, this is not synonymous with a change of course in Poland’s foreign policy.
Chinese Naval Base in Djibouti and Chinese Policy in the Horn of Africa
The first foreign base of the People’s Liberation Army was established in 2017 in Djibouti, the smallest country in Africa, located at the mouth of the crucial Bab al-Mandab Strait, connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The Strait is one of the most important transport routes in the world, connecting the Indian Ocean with the Suez Canal. For years, multiple civil conflicts took place in Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen, which increased the level of threat to free shipping. The base is part of China’s comprehensive policy towards Djibouti, which, in addition to providing security for the Chinese ships and support for UN peacekeeping missions, aims to strengthen Beijing’s position as a key economic partner for the countries located in the Horn of Africa.
Asia and Pacific High-level Conference on Belt and Road Cooperation
On June 23, 2021, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi chaired the Asia and Pacific High-level Conference on Belt and Road Cooperation. A six-point consensus was reached and two new initiatives were proposed.
Consumer Patriotism as an Economic Opportunity
Has the COVID-19 pandemic affected shopping attitudes? In the case of individual consumer choices of Polish citizens, we are beginning to see significant changes in trends. Consequently, retail chains are altering their marketing and sales policies on the domestic market. How can this impact the economy? Can consumer patriotism be relevant to everyday life?
Russia Raises Gas Price for Europe
Russian gas giant Gazprom decided to raise the average gas export price for European countries. The company’s managers expect it to reach $240 this year, which is way more than what Gazprom and market analysts had forecasted. The decision is driven by the increasing demand for natural gas.
Warsaw Institute
