Russia Monitor is a review of the most important events related to Russian internal and external security, as well as its foreign policies.
Date: 30 June 2021
Russia Pumps Less Crude Oil
Russian oil and gas condensate output stood at 1,421,600 tons per day in June, a drop by 6,400 tons compared with May. But even though Russia does not comply 100 percent with the OPEC+ deal to cut output quotas.
Under the agreement with OPEC, Russia could increase its crude output––since condensate is not included in this figure––by 39,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June month-to-month and pump 9.457 million bpd. In May 2021 Russia produced some 106,500 tons of condensate each day and 108,000 tons in the last five months. As the country’s condensate output complied with the May baseline, throughout the twenty-nine days of June this was 1,315,100 tons per day, or 9.495 million barrels. Thus Russia is allowed to produce some 38,000 barrels above the level and its compliance with the OPEC+ agreement could reach 98 percent in June. At the same time, OPEC countries and their non-OPEC allies expect that an oil supply deficit continue worldwide if output remains unchanged. On their agenda will be the plan to further ease crude output restrictions in August and demand for energy is slowly recovering after the Covid-19 pandemic. On June 29, the group’s Joint Technical Committee (JTC) met to discuss this. The coalition’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, or JMMC, is scheduled to meet again on July 1. On the same day, OPEC and non-OPEC ministers are expected to meet. According to some estimates by JTC cited by the Bloomberg news agency, the demand will hike past 1.7 million bpd in August. In the second six months of this year, the deficit will stand on average at 1.9 million bpd. The Committee will examine these forecasts and possibly accept them, the agency said. At the meeting on July 1, OPEC and non-OPEC states might agree to see further hikes in oil production, it is not known by how much. Market analysts and traders predict an output increase by some 500,000 bpd.
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