Russia Monitor Monthly 2/23
Content
Li Keqiang’s First Conversation with the New German Chancellor
On January 17, 2022, Premier of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) Li Keqiang held a telephone conversation with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The talk concerned further cooperation in various domains. The Chinese side recalled good mutual relations and encouraged further pragmatic collaboration.
Hungary elections 2022- Warsaw Institute discussion panel
On January 17, a panel discussion was held, the theme of which was the upcoming parliamentary elections in Hungary. The discussion was attended by: Sándor Gallai, MCC School Head of Social Sciences and History, András Hajdú, political scientist and PhD student at Corvinus University in Budapest.
Moldova Again On The Brink Of New Gas Shortage
Moldova’s gas distribution company, Moldovagaz, says it has paid Russian state-owned gas giant Gazprom for natural gas supplied in December 2021. By January 20, 2022, the company has to make a down payment for this month’s gas bill. But the price of Russian gas has risen since the beginning of this year, making Moldova unable to pay its commodity bill and forcing the country to ask Gazprom for an extension. If no agreement is reached, Russia may again cut off its gas supplies to Moldova.
Is Revival Of Normandy Format Possible?
Talks in the Normandy format, which brings together Ukrainian, Russian, German, and French officials to help end the conflict in Donbas, have stalled. It is painful for Moscow whose top officials expected that Berlin and Paris would force Kyiv into putting the Minsk agreements into practice. As the Kremlin is seeking to turn to Washington to solve the problem, Ukraine is looking for some balance, highlighting the importance of the Normandy format. What poses a bigger threat to Kyiv is a pile of potential concessions from the Joe Biden administration.
Czech and Slovak Intelligence Report on China
Czech and Slovak intelligence and counterintelligence agencies mention the threat from China in their reports more and more often. The growing importance of the PRC and its attempts to influence these countries are closely monitored. The degree of danger is frequently compared to Russian actions
Russia Cripples NATO’s Undersea Communications
One of two undersea fiberoptic cables which provide vital internet connection and communications links between mainland Norway and the Svalbard archipelago in the Arctic Ocean was put out of action on January 7. The new chief of the UK defense staff told Russia any attempt by submarines at damage would be treated as act of war. In recent months, Russian vessels have been active close to cables linking the United States and Europe.
Russia Pushes Ukraine “Red Lines”
Failed diplomatic talks with NATO and the United States did not mitigate Moscow’s belligerent stance. The Kremlin keeps escalating tensions instead. The Russians are scrambling pieces of military hardware, including its Iskander missile launchers, from Siberia westwards, while demanding the West not to deploy weapons to Ukraine.
Threat Of Russian Military Invasion Of Ukraine Remains High
A recent round of diplomatic talks did not influence the military. While in talks with the United States and NATO, Russia kicked off military drills near the Ukrainian border. Western and Ukrainian officials still believe that the threat of war remains high, especially after the failed talks in Geneva, Brussels, and Vienna.
US-China relations in 2021
The United States entered 2021 with a newly elected President Joe Biden. The summary of China’s policy is also an assessment of the first year of the new administration at the White House. It was clear from the beginning that the key issue for the new president would be relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
U.S.-Russia Talks – Defusing a Tension on Ukraine? Warsaw Institute discussion panel
On Wednesday, January 12, the Warsaw Institute organized a discussion panel concerning the assessment of Monday’s negotiations between representatives of the US diplomacy and their counterparts on the side of the Russian Federation. The topic of the talks in Geneva was the issue of Ukraine’s security. For months, nearly 100,000 Russian soldiers have been stationed on the Russian-Ukrainian border.
Russian Forces Begin Apparent Kazakhstan Withdrawal
Russian-led forces have begun their gradual withdrawal from Kazakhstan, the Russian defense ministry informed. No details are known how long the pullout will take and whether any Russian troops will stay in Kazakhstan. Importantly, Moscow and ex-Soviet nations deployed more than 2,000 to help Kazakh officials not to stop the revolution, but to consolidate Tokayev’s grip on power against people close to Nursultan Nazarbayev.
Wang Yi in East Africa
Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi visited Eritrea, Kenya, and the Comoros between January 4 and 7. It was an opportunity for further declarations of support in many domains of African countries and the presentation of new initiatives.
China Offers Support to the Kazakh Government
The protests in Kazakhstan, which have led to mass unresti and the resignation of the governmentii, have caught the attention of its neighboring states. The Russian Federation even sent its troops to Kazakhstan, aiming to bring the situation under control.iii Even though the People’s Republic of China (PRC) did not do likewise, its representatives have widely commented on the current events.
Geneva Talks Did Not Minimize Risk Of War
A meeting of top U.S. and Russian diplomats has not produced any tangible results. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov were tasked with outlining proposals and expectations. Nonetheless, what both said after the meeting could hint at some future conclusions.
USA before negotiations with Russia in Geneva
Negotiations between the United States and the Russian Federation begin in Geneva on Monday, January 10. The topic of talks between representatives of both countries is the security of Ukraine and the entire region of Eastern Europe.
Russian Troops Arrive In Kazakhstan
It is not only about deploying hundreds of Russian military personnel to Kazakhstan, but a great deal of political support the Kremlin threw to Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. The Kazakh president will pay for it later. In consequence, Kazakhstan is becoming a Russian vassal, being no longer its independent ally.
Russia-West Talks: Brokering An Unlikely Deal
What Western and Russian officials say just before a round of talks in Geneva, Brussels, and Vienna highlights the firm positions of the two sides. The talks seem unlikely to bring a breakthrough so Russia is likely to push on Ukraine every harder than now. The latest statements by the Russian deputy foreign minister show that Moscow is ready for the fiasco and is thus upping the ante beforehand.
American LNG and Polish Diversification of Supplies
In December 2021, gas prices in Europe increased dramatically, even several times within a few days. The sudden change was caused, among others, by the reduction of the transit of the Russian gas via the Yamal gas pipeline, which runs through Poland and supplies Western Europe. The American LNG may turn out to be the cure for shortage.
Xian Starts New Year in Quarantine
China Monitor is our brand-new program that analyses China's economic and foreign policies. It also aims to predict the consequences of Beijing's policy for the global economy, the EU as well as Central and Eastern European countries such as Poland. Date:...
Russia sends troops to Kazakhstan: Interview with Grzegorz Kuczyński
The expert of the Warsaw Institute, Grzegorz Kuczyński, speaks about the crisis and protests in Kazakhstan.
Warsaw Institute
