Russia Monitor Monthly 2/23
Content
Will the New Czech Governing Coalition End Friendly Relations with the PRC?
The new Czech governing coalition views relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) significantly differently than the incumbent Czech President Miloš Zeman. Although most of the key state positions were distributed smoothly, Zeman opposed the appointment of the Minister of Foreign Affairs.
Syria. ILIS (ISIS) Attack on Ghweran Prison
More than 100 ISIL (ISIS) fighters launched an attack on Ghweran prison in Hasakah last week, detonating three car bombs. The rebels stormed the compound in an attempt to free thousands of their comrades who were detained after the group’s defeat in 2019.
UK Plans To Tighten Policy Towards Russia
The UK’s diplomatic offensive has taken Moscow aback, as evidenced by the Kremlin’s response to London’s plan to broaden the scope of sanctions on Russia. It was followed by some strong declarations from Boris Johnson ahead of his visit to Kyiv and reports of the creation of a trilateral British-Polish-Ukrainian alliance.
How Much Is It For Gazprom To Transit Gas Through Belarus?
Russian state-run gas company Gazprom informed about the cost of gas transit through Belarus, which is a tenth of the revenue from gas deliveries to consumers across Belarus.
Nord Stream 2 Sanctions Make U.S. Determined, Germans Split
Faced with criticism from countries worldwide and U.S. pressure, Berlin slightly adjusted its stance to sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 gas link if Russia attacked Ukraine. Yet the German government has not made a final decision on the pipeline while the ruling SPD party is in favor of completing the gas link.
After Gas, Russia Is Reducing Oil Deliveries To EU
In February, Russia’s Transneft will decrease its oil deliveries from European ports into EU countries by 14 percent. Among those most targeted will be the Baltic states, Finland, Germany, and the Netherlands.
Gazprom Neft Seeks To Increase Hydrocarbon Output By A Third
Gazprom Neft plans to boost hydrocarbon production by almost a third, the company’s CEO Alexander Dyukov said. Nonetheless, Russia is no longer able to keep pace with the OPEC+ supply deal.
The United States Before 2022 Midterm Elections
The United States midterm elections will be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2022. During this time, all seats in the House of Representatives will be challenged. Both the politicians already sitting there and new legislators aspiring to take up positions at the federal level will fight for a spot in the lower house of the American Congress. Also, just 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be contested. The continuous process will eventually weigh on the state of American democracy.
Russia Seeks For New Hydrocarbon Deposits And Struggles To Extract Crude
All eyes of Russian oil and gas companies are now on East Siberia, which is the only remaining part of the country that is rich in easily extractable hydrocarbons. At the same time, oil firms are forced to look for new deposits as they have no chance to meet the declared targets once confronted with available resources.
Russian Navy Ships Hold Drills In Norwegian Sea
Vessels of Russia’s Northern Fleet have completed anti-submarine drills in the Norwegian Sea, the Russian defense ministry said on January 31. This is yet another manifestation of Russian naval drills: the country’s vessels left their bases to practice warfare in many places around the world.
Russia Supplies Record Natural Gas To Turkey Via Blue Stream
Russian energy company Gazprom Export announced a record high export volume of natural gas to Turkey via the Blue Stream gas pipeline in 2021. The gas giant said this stemmed from growing demand. This highlights Moscow’s political purpose in cutting gas flows into the EU for the past six months.
Social Crisis in Kazakhstan. Repercussions for Poland
The first symptoms of civil disobedience began inconspicuously with the roadblocks set up by residents in the town of Zhanaozen on January 2, 2022 . It was there in 2011 that Nazarbayev’s security forces, while pacifying demonstrations, killed, according to official government estimates, 18 people, however, as the opposition claims, up to a hundred demonstrators may have been killed
Poland’s plan challenging Russian gas dominance
Poland will no longer need Russian gas supplies delivered by the Yamal pipeline from October 2022, due to the start of North Sea gas supplies through the new Baltic Pipe. The Yamal natural gas contract, signed in September 1996 between the Polish gas company PGNiG and the Russian energy giant Gazprom, expires on December 31th, 2022 and will not be renewed, since gas will be imported from Norway from the 1st of October, becoming more independent of the whims of the Kremlin.
Is Chinese Real Estate Market Situation a Symptom of PRC’s Economy Problems?
Official data on the growth of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) GDP, released in January this year, indicated that the Chinese economy grew by 8.1% in 2021, which met the government’s growth target of “over 6%.” Despite this growth rate, some symptoms of PRC’s domestic economic problems are appearing.
Could Russia Attempt A Sea Blockade Of Ukraine?
Southern Ukraine is particularly vulnerable to a Russian attack. First, a massive military force is stationed in Russian-occupied Crimea. Secondly, Russia enjoys an overwhelming advantage at sea. Possibly the Kremlin will block the Kerch Strait and sea routes running to Ukrainian sea ports west of Crimea, notably Odesa. A non-military blockade could eventually bring the Ukrainian economy to its knees.
United Arab Emirates. Escalating Conflict with the Houthi Rebels
The conflict in Yemen has been a disaster for millions of its citizens who have fled their homes, many of whom are on the brink of starvation. The United Arab Emirates joined the coalition against the Houthis in 2019. Yemeni non-governmental forces backed by the Saudis and the United Arab Emirates have dealt the rebels some very painful blows recently. Three districts in the Shabwa governorate were recaptured. The clashes were only part of a surge in violence taking place in a devastated country where the war is fought on several fronts
Illegal firearms flow on the U.S-Mexican border
The Law regulations on purchase of firearms in the U.S. differs depends on state. The smallest number of requirements needed to meet in order to get a gun are present in U.S-Mexico borderline states like Arizona, New Mexico and Texas. On the other side of the border, Mexican Constitution strongly restricts possibilities to obtain any kind of firearms for anyone, but the authorities.
Russian Invasion Could Begin In Donbas
Recent days brought more reports that Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine may begin in Donbas. Russia has started a military buildup in what is known as people’s republics and is now laying the political groundwork for an armed intervention in southeastern Ukraine.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Makes A New Offer
Russia does not want a new round of talks on Ukraine and NATO. Nonetheless, after some harsh statements from Russian officials and Moscow’s belligerent actions, including its military dispatch to Belarus, Russia is now mitigating its recent demands. This is evidenced by the statement from Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, who said what would satisfy Moscow in its negotiations on NATO and Ukraine.
China’s Demographic Slowdown
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been ranked among the world’s most populous countries since its establishment. At the beginning of 2022, the country still tops that list, but the latest data of the National Bureau of Statistics of China shows a worrying population trend.
Warsaw Institute
