Russia Monitor Monthly 2/23
Content
Putin’s Appetite For Rapid Success: If Not Donbas, Then Mariupol
Russian forces are slowly regrouping to double down on their attacks in Ukraine’s Donbas despite heavy losses they had sustained in the country’s north and some personnel shortages. But these issues are unlikely to make Moscow scrap its plan to attack southeastern Ukraine. Faced with a total failure, Russia can only make an effort to seize a portion of Ukrainian territory and then give its go-ahead for ceasefire and talks before the conflict is frozen.
(Geopolitical Notebook) NATO Expansion to the Nordic Countries: A Done Deal?
The prospect of Finland and Sweden joining NATO will certainly rile Russia. Both coun-tries have remained neutral but due to the war in Ukraine, see NATO as their sole long term security guarantee. Finland is preparing a defence “white paper” to assess the pros and cons of joining the military alliance. In the meanwhile, parliamentary debates will be underway and a formal application to join is expected to be filed with Brussels’ HQ be-fore the next NATO summit at the end of June.
“Black Tuesday” For Russian Intelligence As European Countries Expel More Russian “Diplomats”
It was just on April 5 that Western countries ejected a total of 150 Russian diplomatic staff members. Recent days saw the mass expulsion of Russian “diplomats”––most of whom are intelligence officers––from Western states after Russian war crimes had been revealed in Bucha, Ukraine. Other European nations began to expel Russian operatives just after the war broke out. Since February 24, around 400 Russian diplomats have been asked to leave their postings. And more expulsions will follow.
Elections in Hungary – Results and Future Predictions ??
Viktor Orban once again won the parliamentary elections in Hungary. After 99 percent of the votes were converted by the National Electoral Office, 53.1 percent of Hungarians voted for Fidesz, which translates into 135 seats in parliament. The united opposition gained 35 percent of the vote and 56 seats. In this program, we will evaluate the results of the parliamentary elections in Hungary and make predictions for the future of Hungarian politics.
Is There a Third Way in American Politics?
While looking at the American political landscape we often notice the constant rivalry between two parties. The Democratic Party and the Republican Party have dominated the political battlefield, but they are not the only ones on it. In the American duopoly of power, one can notice the small impact that the Libertarian Party exerts.
Russia Has Admitted Defeat In Kyiv
During a new round of ceasefire talks in Istanbul, Russia has vowed to drastically reduce combat operations around the capital Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv. Although the Kremlin portrayed this as a goodwill gesture, Russia has in fact admitted defeat in Ukraine in the initial weeks of its invasion.
India Buys Cheap Russian Oil
India has refrained from outright condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The country is yet maneuvering between Russia, which is its arms supplier, and the United States, as the New Delhi-Washington ties have improved lately. As more Indian companies secure deals with Russian crude suppliers, possibly the country will fill in the vacuum left by Western firms.
Russia’s Oil Alliance With Gulf Countries Is Doing Well
The OPEC group of oil-producing countries and its Russia-led allies ignored Western pressure to significantly boost production. As concluded at the latest OPEC+ meeting, oil-producing states are unlikely to make any shifts until May in a move that has an impact on global oil prices.
More European Countries Expel Russian Envoys, Deliver Blow To Moscow
Western countries have expelled a total of 120 Russian intelligence officers masquerading as diplomats following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Perhaps it is not over yet. This is the biggest coordinated action against the backdrop of Russia’s war in Ukraine since the spring of 2018 after an attempted poisoning of Sergei Skripal.
Sanctions Deliver A Blow To Russian Oil, OPEC+ Offers Help
Although Western sanctions have not yet started to hit the Russian economy, the country’s energy export is now in trouble. Russia is seeing a drop in oil output, refinery throughput, and export figures. But for the OPEC+ cartel and its stance, Russia would be in bigger trouble, though.
Russia Shifts War Rhetoric, Now Seeking To Claim Donbas
Amid failed efforts to wage an all-out war, Russia is scaling back its goals in Ukraine. What now seems is that Russia is planning to at least extend the “people’s republics” in Donetsk and Luhansk to the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and then capture both following a sham “referendum.”
China’s Sinopec Pauses Russian High-Risk Energy Project
Beijing has refused to condemn Moscow’s actions in Ukraine. Perhaps the same will apply for the arms industry. However, joint business projects are now at risk. Beijing is afraid of Western sanctions.
Japan Freezes Investment In Russia’s Flagship LNG Project
The Novatek-controlled flagship LNG project, or Arctic LNG-2, is again in trouble. Japan and France have stopped making new investments in a major liquefied natural gas development project in the Russian Arctic, Nikkei reported on March 25.
Tensions Run High Between Russia, Japan: Sanctions, Drills, and Disputed Islands
Amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine, ties soured rapidly between Moscow and Tokyo. After Japan condemned the hostiles and joined Western nations in imposing sanctions, Moscow halted peace treaty talks and launched military drills near the Kuril Islands whose status is disputed by the two states. In response, Tokyo reminded Russia that it had been illegally occupying four of its islands.
Does Ukraine need combat fighters? American Alert ?? | ep. 3
The next episode of the “American Alert” program covered the role of combat fighters in the war in Ukraine, the possibility of arming the Ukrainian army with MiG-29 combat aircraft and NATO’s response to the criminal actions of Vladimir Putin.
US Cyber Forces as a Model for the Polish Ones
On February 8, 2022, the Safer Internet Day, Polish Minister of National Defense Mariusz Błaszczak officially established the Cyberspace Defense Forces (CDF). Director of the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) Brig. Gen. Karol Molenda [1] became their new commander. This is the final stage of the process that began in February 2019. During the past three years, the National Cryptology Center and the IT Inspectorate were integrated and the NCSC was established. The latter took on the role of a centralized center focused on cybernetics, cryptology, and broadly understood IT.
Russian Invasion Of Ukraine: Will Belarus Join Putin’s War?
Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Kyiv has said there is a high risk of an attack on the country being launched from Belarus. Minsk would allow Moscow to use its territory, facilities, and troops to invade Ukraine. If this does take place, it will be one of the last decisions Alexander Lukashenko takes as the Belarusian leader.
Emmanuel Macron, his economic balance sheet and the coming presidential election
As the French presidential election is coming and will be held in April 2022, Emmanuel Macron (still not officially candidate) knows that French people are about to estimate the government actions concerning the cost of living and purchasing power. Propositions around these two main concerns will influence electoral behaviours and decide the next French President for five-year term.
Foreign policy of Poland and the Czech Republic towards Russia
The debate was devoted to the foreign policy of Poland and the Czech Republic towards Russia and it was organized thanks to public task financed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland within the grant competition “Polish-Czech Forum 2022”. ?? ??
Russian Invasion Of Ukraine: Sea Blockade Is Now A Fact
No matter how the Russia-Ukraine war ends, some security issues in the Black Sea have changed irreversibly. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is damaging infrastructure along the entire Black Sea coast and blocks access to shipping routes by deploying mines.
Warsaw Institute
