Russia Monitor Articles
Russia’s Offensive On Donbas Has Begun
The Russian military command launched an operation in Ukraine’s Donbas while not waiting for the fall of Mariupol. The aggressor’s top mission is to smash the best-equipped Ukrainian units and seize at least the whole Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which would be what the Kremlin meant while recognizing the so-called “people’s republics” in Donbas.
Ukraine’s SBU Detains Putin Ally Viktor Medvedchuk
Ukrainian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk has for years been the number one figure in the pro-Russian political wing in Ukraine. Ukrainian authorities had already charged Medvedchuk with treason last year and placed him under house arrest. After Russia invaded Ukraine, the mogul escaped but was detained by Ukrainian counterintelligence officers. He must know a lot about Russian plans of a military invasion of Ukraine. But will he be willing to cooperate? One is certain: by capturing Medvedchuk, Ukrainian operatives dealt a blow to Russia, Putin, and the FSB.
Russia Is Seeking To Encircle Ukraine’s Donbas
Ukraine, the United States, and NATO say that Russia is nearing a significant new offensive in the eastern Donbas region. Russia regrouped troops that failed to seize Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, or Kyiv––the country’s capital. Now it shifts its offensive east to cut off Ukrainian forces in Donbas. In addition to capturing the whole regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, Russians are seeking to break Ukrainian morale. Ukrainian forces stationed in the Donbas are the best trained and equipped units.
”Besieged Fortress:” Polls Show Russians Support Putin And War In Ukraine
Western sanctions that followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine did not compromise Vladimir Putin’s popularity rating. Although the Russian population is not in the same euphoric mood as after Crimea was annexed in 2014, these two events share some features. Polling agency results have pointed to a surge of support for Putin, including what he referred to as a “special military operation” in Ukraine. But among some Western experts, the poll shows a Russian fear of speaking frankly and honestly to pollsters, even those run independently. Russian researchers––also those very critical of Putin’s actions––say that the uptick in the president’s popularity is what could be labeled a defense strategy to an alleged attack from the outside, which is the Kremlin’s official narrative.
Putin’s Appetite For Rapid Success: If Not Donbas, Then Mariupol
Russian forces are slowly regrouping to double down on their attacks in Ukraine’s Donbas despite heavy losses they had sustained in the country’s north and some personnel shortages. But these issues are unlikely to make Moscow scrap its plan to attack southeastern Ukraine. Faced with a total failure, Russia can only make an effort to seize a portion of Ukrainian territory and then give its go-ahead for ceasefire and talks before the conflict is frozen.
“Black Tuesday” For Russian Intelligence As European Countries Expel More Russian “Diplomats”
It was just on April 5 that Western countries ejected a total of 150 Russian diplomatic staff members. Recent days saw the mass expulsion of Russian “diplomats”––most of whom are intelligence officers––from Western states after Russian war crimes had been revealed in Bucha, Ukraine. Other European nations began to expel Russian operatives just after the war broke out. Since February 24, around 400 Russian diplomats have been asked to leave their postings. And more expulsions will follow.
Russia Has Admitted Defeat In Kyiv
During a new round of ceasefire talks in Istanbul, Russia has vowed to drastically reduce combat operations around the capital Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv. Although the Kremlin portrayed this as a goodwill gesture, Russia has in fact admitted defeat in Ukraine in the initial weeks of its invasion.
India Buys Cheap Russian Oil
India has refrained from outright condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The country is yet maneuvering between Russia, which is its arms supplier, and the United States, as the New Delhi-Washington ties have improved lately. As more Indian companies secure deals with Russian crude suppliers, possibly the country will fill in the vacuum left by Western firms.
Russia’s Oil Alliance With Gulf Countries Is Doing Well
The OPEC group of oil-producing countries and its Russia-led allies ignored Western pressure to significantly boost production. As concluded at the latest OPEC+ meeting, oil-producing states are unlikely to make any shifts until May in a move that has an impact on global oil prices.
More European Countries Expel Russian Envoys, Deliver Blow To Moscow
Western countries have expelled a total of 120 Russian intelligence officers masquerading as diplomats following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Perhaps it is not over yet. This is the biggest coordinated action against the backdrop of Russia’s war in Ukraine since the spring of 2018 after an attempted poisoning of Sergei Skripal.
Sanctions Deliver A Blow To Russian Oil, OPEC+ Offers Help
Although Western sanctions have not yet started to hit the Russian economy, the country’s energy export is now in trouble. Russia is seeing a drop in oil output, refinery throughput, and export figures. But for the OPEC+ cartel and its stance, Russia would be in bigger trouble, though.
Russia Shifts War Rhetoric, Now Seeking To Claim Donbas
Amid failed efforts to wage an all-out war, Russia is scaling back its goals in Ukraine. What now seems is that Russia is planning to at least extend the “people’s republics” in Donetsk and Luhansk to the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and then capture both following a sham “referendum.”
China’s Sinopec Pauses Russian High-Risk Energy Project
Beijing has refused to condemn Moscow’s actions in Ukraine. Perhaps the same will apply for the arms industry. However, joint business projects are now at risk. Beijing is afraid of Western sanctions.
Japan Freezes Investment In Russia’s Flagship LNG Project
The Novatek-controlled flagship LNG project, or Arctic LNG-2, is again in trouble. Japan and France have stopped making new investments in a major liquefied natural gas development project in the Russian Arctic, Nikkei reported on March 25.
Warsaw Institute
