Russia Monitor Monthly 7/23

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Lost race with the communists

Lost race with the communists

As you know, World War II ended the German occupation, but the Poles found themselves under the totalitarian rule of Stalin. The authorities brought on Soviet tanks were not interested in the needs and opinions of the Polish people, but with orders from the Kremlin. But what would the Poles of that time want if they could decide about themselves?

Ukraine Continues Crimean Counteroffensive Also Outside Battle Zone

Ukraine Continues Crimean Counteroffensive Also Outside Battle Zone

A series of attacks on Russian military facilities in Crimea coincided with the second summit of the Crimean Platform. Perhaps the brave deeds of the Ukrainian army were to promote the diplomatic initiative. Eight years after Russia unlawfully seized Crimea from Ukraine, the prospect of its liberation has not resonated louder than now. It is both about Ukraine’s military efforts and Western solidarity.

Bulgaria’s Ready To Negotiate Gas Deal With Russia’s Gazprom  After Government Changes

Bulgaria’s Ready To Negotiate Gas Deal With Russia’s Gazprom After Government Changes

Russia cut off gas supplies to Bulgaria, back then under the pro-Western government of Kiril Petkov, back in April. The authorities in Sofia refused to bow to Russian pressure and started buying gas elsewhere. However, the government of Petkov, who refused Russia’s demands in April, lost a vote of no confidence and a new caretaker government has been appointed by Rumen Radev, the country’s pro-Russian president. The bottom line is that Bulgaria says it wants to resume talks with Russia’s Gazprom on the latter’s terms.

Putin Signs Showy Decree To Increase Size Of Armed Forces

Putin Signs Showy Decree To Increase Size Of Armed Forces

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on August 25 to increase the size of Russia’s armed forces by 137,000 to 1.15 million. The document is a propaganda tool that will scarcely improve the Russian situation in Ukraine. It is unlikely to add that many people as Russia is struggling notably with a poor demographic situation. Adding more servicemen does not mean an increase in combat strength, in particular in Russia.

Russia Appoints New Black Sea Fleet Commander Amid Ukrainian Attacks

Russia Appoints New Black Sea Fleet Commander Amid Ukrainian Attacks

The six-month Russian invasion of Ukraine has claimed the lives of many senior Russian military officials. Others were relieved from their duties. As recently reported, a new commander has been appointed to the Russian Black Sea Fleet amid a series of setbacks it had seen, including the sinking of its flagship vessels and recent blasts in Crimea.

MENA Weekly Digest

MENA Weekly Digest

Read the most important events in the Middle East and North Africa region from 17 to 26 August 2022.

Russian Hydrocarbons Export: Big Profit Today, Big Trouble Tomorrow

Russian Hydrocarbons Export: Big Profit Today, Big Trouble Tomorrow

Russia is expected to pocket $337.5 billion this year on energy exports alone, according to an economy ministry document seen by Reuters news agency. But a boom in energy earnings only partly compensates for the damage from sanctions to such industries as automotive, IT, and banking. Russia is becoming an even more resource-intensive country, thus economically uncompetitive and dependent on the energy policy of other players.

New Zealand in AUKUS? Americans do not rule out such a solution

New Zealand in AUKUS? Americans do not rule out such a solution

In face of the tension that has built up in the Indo-Pacific region in recent weeks, New Zealand sees an opportunity to enter into a sharper relationship with the People’s Republic of China. In late July, Wellington suspended the extradition treaty with Hong Kong, also changing its policy on the export of military goods and technology. The US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, who visited New Zealand at the beginning of August, encouraged the potential rapprochement in allied relations with the USA.

Three Seas Initiative ad. 2022 – challenges for Poland

Three Seas Initiative ad. 2022 – challenges for Poland

Completed in June this year. The summit of the Three Seas Initiative in the Latvian capital was another annual meeting at the presidential level, which showed the durability of this relatively new format of Central European cooperation.

Russia Stages Air and Sea Provocations, Teasing Western Nations

Russia Stages Air and Sea Provocations, Teasing Western Nations

Recent weeks have seen a series of incidents that Russia provoked mostly in the air, both in the Baltic Sea and the Pacific. Russia, which struggles in Ukraine, is staging provocations near countries it considers hostile. A similar chain of incidents has not been reported in months.

Bulgaria and the Three Seas Initiative: turning precaution into unleashed potential

Bulgaria and the Three Seas Initiative: turning precaution into unleashed potential

The Three Seas Initiative has received subdued rather than committed and vigorous support in Bulgaria. Limited public awareness, coupled with distrust and opposition to the Initiative by Russophile and nationalist social and political networks, limited Bulgaria’s full anchoring in the format and limited discussions to the technical and economic dimension of regional cooperation. In turn, the political and conceptual aspects of the Three Seas Initiative were the subject of unjustified interpretations, multiplied in the pro-Russian disinformation. The latter called the project a “sanitary cordon”, a new “iron curtain” and a “geopolitical battlefield” allegedly motivated by Polish Russophobia, aimed at isolating Russia and China and promoting Western hegemony, including through military means.

Talks on a nuclear deal between the US government and Iran

Talks on a nuclear deal between the US government and Iran

In 2018, the then US president, Donald Trump, made a decision to withdraw from conducting talks regarding the signing of a nuclear agreement with Iran and decided to impose numerous sanctions aimed at employing the Iranian government to function in such a way as to force them to stop developing their nuclear potential.

Myanmar To Import Russia Oil

Myanmar To Import Russia Oil

Not surprisingly, Myanmar is set to join a growing list of countries that are warming up to Russia’s oil imports. Both regimes have forged close cooperation. In addition, Myanmar suffers from a gasoline shortage while Russia is seeking to send its energy elsewhere. Last but not least, Myanmar is yet another ready market in Asia that matters most for Russia as Western states shunned Russian energy imports.

The Three Seas Initiative

The Three Seas Initiative

In the 21st century, the sea continues to be the most common way to transport goods and people. The context and importance of the seas can be a key factor in an international show. So why not take advantage of this factor and unite? Working together for the common good may be an old concept, but it still works. Until it becomes too political when it comes to endangering other political groups, unions and organizations. That is why it is important to perceive the Three Seas Initiative as something important, something new and innovative, but above all – something good. As stated in the official definition, it is “a politically inspired, commercially driven platform to improve connectivity between Member States”.

Dismissals, Arrests, Suicide: Can Anyone Reform Ukraine’s SBU?

Dismissals, Arrests, Suicide: Can Anyone Reform Ukraine’s SBU?

A recently reported suicide of a senior SBU officer is another bad news for Ukraine’s intelligence services. As Ukraine’s SBU intelligence agency performed poorly after the country had been invaded by Russia, Zelensky said he would cleanse the special services. The problem is not in personnel but in the fact who oversees Ukraine’s most powerful intelligence outlet.

Ukraine On High Alert For Possible Independence Day Attacks

Ukraine On High Alert For Possible Independence Day Attacks

Russia often makes political or military decisions based on history and symbolism. Ukraine is afraid its infrastructure might be struck in an attack on Independence Day (August 24). The Kremlin could seek to retaliate for the killing of Darya Dugina, daughter of ideologue Alexander Dugin, and a series of Ukrainian attacks against Russian targets in Russian-occupied Crimea.

The military capabilities among Antarctic claimant states

The military capabilities among Antarctic claimant states

This research paper thinks about a potential military rivalry for territories in Antarctica. It focuses on the seven states, that have yet asserted territorial claims in Antarctica: Argentina, Chile, Australia, New Zealand, Norway, France and the United Kingdom. The intention is to give a provisional, superficial review about the overall numbers of weapon systems since 2015 in connection with their range and their geographic proximity to Antarctica.
Currently, the UK, France and Australia appear to be the most militarily capable states among the seven claimant states.

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