Russia Monitor Monthly 7/23
Content
Decrease in Profits after Energy Price Regulations
This might be the result of the decision made by the Romanian Government that will affect several energy companies, including Nuclearelectrica, a state-owned nuclear power producer. As of now, such preliminary calculations are based on the comparison of results obtained in 2018 as well as the incorporation of new regulations.
Central Asia May Host New Russian Military Base
Moscow is paving its way for making a final decision to launch another military base in Kyrgyzstan. Such a step came as an aftermath of Sergei Lavrov’s recent visit to Bishkek. Despite previous behind-the-scenes talks, none of the sides seems eager to play the role of an initiator.
Russia Offers to Mediate between Hamas, Fatah and Israel
Russian diplomatic activity boosted as the country decided to interfere in the Middle East’s most sensitive conflict. Russia’s Foreign Ministry offered to host a meeting between Hamas and Fatah leaders, a step aimed at reconciling Palestine’s two parties. But that is only the first stage as it is much more important to come up with an appropriate mediation plan between Palestinians and Israel.
Putin Announces New Missiles as Russia and US Get Involved in Arms Race
U.S. decision to withdraw from the landmark INF Treaty was followed by the Kremlin’s same step. Vladimir Putin informed on February 2 that country intends to suspend its obligations under the arms control deal while saying he had recommended expanding Russia’s medium-range missile arsenal, including advanced works on a brand-new supersonic nuclear missile system.
Sechin Wants Further Reliefs for Russia’s Largest Oil Field
Russian state-run oil giant Rosneft hopes to be granted some tax reliefs while exploiting the Priobskoye field, as indicated by a letter submitted to President Vladimir Putin by the company CEO Igor Sechin. Everything seems now to indicate that his request will be positively considered, meaning that the state budget will lose a total of 460 billion roubles in a ten-year period.
U.S. Withdrawal from the INF Treaty is Russia’s Defeat
Last-ditch talks, which took place in Beijing to save the landmark INF Treaty, failed to bring any results just a few days ahead of the expiration of a U.S. deadline for Moscow to comply with the treaty. Russia still claims that it does not violate the provisions of The Treaty on the Elimination of The Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles, commonly referred to as the INF.
Presidential Campaign. Poroshenko: Mission Impossible?
Two main rivals announced that they run for elections on March 31. Yulia Tymoshenko was the first one, Petro Poroshenko followed her a week later. Inaugural speeches of both candidates confirm the main points of candidates’ campaigns. Tymoshenko will use social slogans, Poroshenko – patriotic. They both declare following the pro-Western course of Ukraine.
Ukraine vs Russia: Religion as a Weapon
The independence move of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church has been the most significant blow to the Russian Orthodox Church for decades as the latter institution remains a traditional tool in the Kremlin’s hands. The decision of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church caused fury in Moscow.
Bendery as the Main Area of the Moldova-Transnistria Conflict
Between 18 and 22 of January, 2019, Moldova noted a series of incidents in Bendery, a city controlled by Transnistria. It led to tightening safety control and the introduction of mobile check and duty points in the territory directly neighbouring Varnita, a village controlled by Chisinau. According to Moldova, these actions were not consulted with Chisinau within joint peacekeeping troops.
Sentence for Yanukovych, Point for Poroshenko, Risk to Ukraine
After a process which lasted for over a year and a half, the former President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych was sentenced in absence to 13 years in prison. The court in Kiev found the current political refugee guilty of high treason and aiding the Russian military aggression against Ukraine. At this point, the decision of the court favours President Poroshenko and the current grouping in power.
Lech Kaczyński: President of Poland’s Supreme Audit Office (1992-1995)
The book entitled “Lech Kaczyński. Prezes Najwyższej Izby Kontroli w latach 1992-1995” [Lech Kaczyński: President of Poland’s Supreme Audit Office (1992-1995)] has been published.
More Russian Air Provocations Reported
As many as ten air incidents, mostly related to intercepting enemy aircraft and violating the airspace of one of the countries over the Baltic Sea, were reported within less than two weeks. They all involved the use of fighter jets, bombers aircraft and reconnaissance planes affecting NATO, Russia and, importantly, neutral Sweden.
Gazprom’s Involvement in Arashukov Case
Russian federal authorities recently detained a number of people who were reportedly linked to Gazprom’s regional subsidiaries, including leaders of an influential clan from Karachaevo-Cherkessiya. Russian Senator Rauf Arashukov was detained at a session of the Federation Council, the Russian parliament’s upper chamber, on January 30 while his father, Raul Arashukov, was taken into custody in St. Petersburg.
Russian Turmoil over U.S. Sanctions against Maduro’s Regime
U.S. restrictions against Venezuela’s state-run oil company PDVSA are the worst-case scenario for Maduro’s regime. PDVSA and Russia’s state-run oil giant Rosneft participate in a number of joint mining projects; in addition, the Venezuelan company owes Sechin’s firm a total amount of 3 billion dollars.
Romanian Transgaz Aims to Borrow over 100 mln Euro
This regards the construction of infrastructure enabling the transport of raw material extracted in the Black Sea. It will be possible thanks to the BRUA gas pipeline which will connect the Romanian gas system with the external infrastructure.
Russia Deploys Tanks to Kaliningrad Exclave
After the recent meeting of the NATO-Russia Council, which turned out unsuccessful for Moscow, Russian media reported that several dozens of tanks had been deployed to the Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad in the vicinity of the Polish border. Militarily, this does not introduce many changes to existing the balance of power.
Did Moscow Send Mercenaries to Support Maduro?
Russia and Venezuela have been tied by a strategic alliance. Moscow actively backed subsequent regimes of Chavez and Maduro, considering the latter its top ally against the US in the western hemisphere. Caracas has been granted billions of dollars for making further concessions for Russia’s state-run oil giant Rosneft, providing support for such regimes like Cuba.
Erdogan-Putin Meeting: Hope for Tie-in Transaction in Syria
Donald Trump’s decision to pull out American troops from Syria may change the strategic situation in the country, with the particular regard to its northeastern regions. This event is likely to be used by Turkey to destroy the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia. And yet Moscow became a key mediator in talks between Kurds and the Damascus government.
Former Anti-Corruption Head May Become EU Chief Prosecutor
Laura Codruța Kövesi is considered the favourite for the position of the Chief Prosecutor of the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO). The information has been confirmed by sources close to the European Commission, which is responsible for the verification of all candidates. According to the Romanian media, Ms Kövesi has not commented on the matter so far.
Russian Oil to Dominate Chinese Market
The current situation on global oil market is conducive to Russia’s growing exports to the Chinese market. Russian exporters have seemed to take advantage of favorable circumstances, including recent crisis in Venezuela, anti-Iranian sanctions, U.S.-China trade war and attempt to influence the market by OPEC+ member states, which enabled them to become a key player in the Middle Kingdom.
Warsaw Institute
