Russia Monitor Monthly 7/23
Content
The Hardest Choice of Batka
Belarus is entering an election year. The country’s parliamentary elections will be held in November 2019, whereas the next presidential election is scheduled for spring 2020. Under the rule of Alexander Lukashenko, elections have become purely administrative rituals, however, this time, they might involve – from the regime’s perspective – a greater risk. On the one hand, Russia is putting more pressure on Belarus for further bilateral integration while at the same time reducing its economic assistance for the neighbour; on the other hand, Lukashenko has to start thinking about his future successor and the fact that without substantial reforms, the current economic model of Belarus is doomed to bankruptcy.
OPAL gas pipeline verdict, Gazprom has no room for maneuver
Regarding the judgment of the Court of Justice of the European Union on Gazprom’s use of the OPAL gas pipeline (with an annual capacity of 36 billion m3 of gas), which de facto distributes natural gas from the Nord Stream I gas pipeline, Warsaw Institute expert Grzegorz Kuczyński gave a commentary to Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.
Summing up 10 Years of the Eastern Partnership
May 2019 marked ten years since the Eastern Partnership was launched as a platform for a mutual dialogue between the European Union and its Eastern neighbors while providing a roadmap for comprehensive actions to be undertaken. Included as part of the forum are Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine.
Regional and Economic Diplomacy Summit 2019
On September 9-10, 2019, the first edition of the summit on regional and economic diplomacy and the promotion of territorial, business and scientific cooperation took place in Warsaw. The partner of this event was the Warsaw Institute think tank and the editorial office of The Warsaw Institute Review.
Delays in the BRHA gas pipeline construction. Archaeologists to blame
During the earthworks in the Gorj county in the south of Romania archaeological sites were found. Now, they have to be examined before they are damaged. This means delays in the construction of the BRHA gas pipeline.
Russia’s Economic Development Minister Optimistic About Cheaper Crude’s Impact on Russian Economy
Russia’s economy is buoyed up by the export of raw materials. Profits it makes from selling gas and oil abroad are the top source of revenue for the federal budget. This means that any changes in hydrocarbon prices immediately translate into how much money flows into the budget. Russia’s incumbent government says, however, that the budget is less prone to the ongoing economic fluctuations owing to the recently adopted reforms. The Russian economy and budget will still do pretty well even if oil prices drop to $40 per barrel, Russia’s Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin said in a recently published press interview.
Putin plays with Zelensky: Normandy trap
The exchange of prisoners opened a period of intensive negotiations and possible decisions which should lead to the settlement of the conflict in Donbas. The Kremlin played with Zelensky in the case of the exchange of prisoners and now it is dragging him into another trap. Similarly as Macron.
Putin plays with Zelensky: Berlin conditions
The exchange of prisoners between Ukraine and Russia is a political victory of the Kremlin. In exchange for the captives, with 24 sailors ahead who should have been unconditionally released by Russians after the decision of the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea from May 25, Kiev released spies, rebels and terrorists, including Vladimir Tzemach, a key witness in the investigation concerning MH-17. Now, it is time for another step which is the Normandy format summit. Also, in this case, one should assume that if the meeting takes place, it will bring decisions unfavourable for Ukraine. Unfortunately, led by national political calculations, Volodymyr Zelensky takes steps which are not favourable for the interest of the state.
Putin Visited Mongolia: New Treaty, New Projects
Russia keeps strengthening cooperation with Mongolia, with Russian companies getting more and more active on the neighboring market, especially in the areas such as transport, infrastructure and energy. Signed by Russian and Mongolian officials, a new friendship and cooperation treaty confirms both the Kremlin’s interest in Mongolia and Ulaanbaatar’s political strategy that sees Russia as a counterbalance for pressure from China. Besides, Mongolia’s incumbent president is seeking to win as much as possible from his being closer to cooperation between Moscow and Beijing.
The US, Poland And Ukraine Sign A Trilateral Gas Agreement
A memorandum on energy cooperation signed on August 31 in Warsaw between the United States, Poland and Ukraine is yet another stage in the U.S. expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) into the Central and Eastern European markets. What seems to be a mere business plan to gas companies from the states of Texas or Louisiana is, however, of great significance for the energy security of the countries in our part of Europe. It will reduce dependence on Russian gas, and, as a result, hit the interests of Moscow, at the same time bringing Ukraine closer to the West and strengthening the status of Poland as a key U.S. ally in this part of Europe – not only in terms of the military sphere, but also the energy one.
French Reset
Paris’s ambition is to take over from Germany as Moscow’s top political partner in Europe. The first step consists in taking the lead in the so-called Normandy format. What seems to foster this move is the election of a new president of Ukraine. Seen to have been far closer to Germany, Petro Poroshenko was replaced with Volodymyr Zelensky, a politician said to be more France-oriented. What is the Kremlin’s reaction?
Moscow Should Feel Disturbed by Bolton’s Mission in the East
A several-day trip paid by U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton shows Washington’s increased interest in the countries of our part of Europe. Top three topics on the agenda of Trump’s influential aide were Russia, China, and the energy industry. While on tour in Europe, Bolton visited Kiev, Chisinau, Minsk, and Warsaw. Most considerable political significance was given to his meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko while culminating Bolton’s tour in Warsaw corroborates Poland’s crucial role in U.S. roadmap for countries between Russia and NATO. And this is all the more that the necessity of having friendly ties with Warsaw was brought upon in talks that the U.S. representatives held both with Lukashenko and Ukraine’s Zelensky.
Romania’s Ruling Coalition Collapses: Who Will Run The Country?
The collapse of Romania’s ruling coalition has only been a matter of weeks. Now, the future of the current government is one big unknown. Will the PSD party stay in power with no majority in the parliament, will it be able to find a new coalition partner or perhaps snap elections will be held? The answers to these questions are still unclear.
Lithuania Receives the U.S. Approval to Purchase Hundreds of JLTV Armoured Vehicles
The Lithuanian Ministry of Defence informed that the U.S. administration has agreed to sell Lithuania its newest JLTV armoured vehicles. The contract for the purchase of 200 vehicles is to be signed this year, however, it is quite possible that the Lithuanians will buy more JLTVs in the future.
Medvedev Comes Under Fire But Will Not Be Dismissed by Putin
More and more Russians are saying they are dissatisfied with the political activity of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, as found by polls by several sociological research centers, both state and private.
Oil Exports Save Venezuelan Economy: Rosneft Not Afraid of Sanctions
Rosneft has become a top trader of Venezuelan-sourced oil, delivering crude to recipients in China and India, a step that at least partly compensates for Caracas’s loss of its traditional brokers afraid of breaking U.S. economic sanctions. In August, China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), a leading buyer of Venezuelan oil, halted oil loadings.
Romanian Gas to Be Imported to Ukraine Thanks to Moldova
The blue fuel will most likely flow from the south of Europe to Ukraine already on January 1, 2020. This is the result of an agreement signed by local operators that will hit the interests of the Kremlin and, most importantly, contribute to Ukraine’s greater energy independence.
Selling Motor Sich to the Chinese: The Political Significance of the Business Transaction
The U.S. administration aims to block the sale of a strategically important Ukrainian engine manufacturer for aircraft and missiles to China. During his recent visit to Kyiv, John Bolton has probably warned the Ukrainians about the consequences of finalising such a transaction. The White House has already sent a warning signal, delaying the transfer of $250 million worth of military aid to Ukraine.
Russia Warns NATO By Staging Large-Scale War Games Off Norway’s Border
Russia, Norway, NATO, drills, air forces, fleet, Arctic, Northern Fleet
Stirring up a Hornets’ Nest: Is Siluanov Playing a Game with Domestic Oil Firms?
Russian oil and gas giants, with Rosneft and Gazprom at the helm, believe that the state will treat them exceptionally, mainly as for taxes, a somewhat dubious expectation that keeps sparking off significant controversies amongst Russian senior authorities.
Warsaw Institute
