RUSSIA MONITOR MONTHLY 5/2020
Contents
Gazprom’s Natural Gas Export Revenue Declined Dramatically in Q1
The losing streak of Gazprom, Russia’s biggest gas company, seems to have no end in sight. To make matters worse, the first quarter of 2020 brought disturbing reports on the firm’s export figures.
Russia Steps up Diplomatic Efforts as Kremlin Aide Kozak Visits Berlin
Slowly but steadily, the world is recovering from the hardest blow from the coronavirus – and so are influential actors worldwide. Putin’s new aide on Ukraine met with Germany’s Angela Merkel a day after she conducted a phone call with Ukraine’s prime minister.
The Arctic Icebreaker: Russia’s Security Policy in the Far North
Whilst the Arctic is a geographical zone that could be labelled as “an area of potential competition between global superpowers”, this alone does not provide full insight into what is really taking place there. One could notice that solely Russia sees it as a key priority while comparing potentials of some of the region’s players, as well as the Arctic’s place on their respective political agendas.
Fradkov Remains at the Helm of the Kremlin’s “Intelligence Service”
On May 13, 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree appointing Mikhail Fradkov director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, in short RISS. This was just a formality –– Fradkov has been in charge of the Kremlin-controlled agency since 2017.
Rosneft’s Sechin Asks Officials For New Tax Reliefs Despite Recent Mishaps
Igor Sechin, the head of Russia’s energy giant Rosneft, was the first to blame for Russia’s downfall in the oil price war. Furthermore, he was a key driver of Moscow’s exit from the OPEC pact. Oil prices dropped to record-time lows while Russia made a comeback to the cut deal –– yet on worse conditions.
Russia Eases Lockdown Yet Offers Little Support to Citizens
Russia is gradually relaxing its coronavirus lockdown measures. In a televised address, Russian President Vladimir Putin said some regions might keep tighter controls if necessary and announced a fresh relief package for the crisis-wrecked Russian economy.
Vladimir Putin Suffers Prestigious Failure in Victory Day Celebrations
Politically, Belarus is Russia’s junior partner while economically, Minsk comes as a vassal state of its larger neighbor that keeps its economy afloat. With all the more satisfaction, Lukashenko seized an opportunity to cut Vladimir Putin down to size as far as the politics of history and public image were concerned.
Moscow: The Capital of Russian Coronavirus Outbreak
Moscow remains by far the biggest Russian coronavirus outbreak despite having introduced timely measures to contain the spread of the virus.
Poland and Denmark Begin Construction of Baltic Pipe Project to Challenge Russian Gas Dominance
Construction of a major gas pipeline from Norway is to begin in the coming days, Polish President Andrzej Duda said in the morning of May 4. On April 30, Polish gas grid operator Gaz-System inked a contract with Italian oil services group Saipem to build a section of the Baltic Pipe between Denmark and Poland.
The impacts of Brexit on the security and the defence industry in the European Union and the United Kingdom
On the 31st of January 2020 Brexit became a fact. Now with the help of a special transition period both the UK and the EU are actively preparing for the new reality apart from each other.
China-U.S. Trade War: Origins, Course and Consequences
The COVID-19 pandemic, which has fanned out around the globe since early 2020, has drastically reshaped world policies. Amidst a fast unraveling humanitarian crisis and a massive blow to the global economy, the U.S.-China trade war is now of secondary concern. Yet, it is a result of structural geopolitical rivalries and will strike even more forcefully after the ongoing crisis is over.
The Collapse of the INF Treaty and the US-China Rivalry
Russia’s noncompliance with the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, or INF Treaty, was the top reason for Donald Trump’s administration to pull out of the deal. Nonetheless, the collapse of the agreement has influenced not only the situation in Europe but also in Asia and the Pacific.
New Gas Pipeline Geopolitics in Central and Eastern Europe
The current gas pipeline system in Central and Eastern Europe started to be built in the 1960s. Apart from commercial purposes, it was intended to make the countries of the Eastern Bloc reliant on energy supplies from the Soviet Union. Just like it was asserted in the Falin-Kvitsinsky doctrine, a Moscow-devised strategy that endeavored to substitute military influence with economic pressure.
Dilemmas of Chinese Presence in Central and Eastern Europe
Chinese presence in Central and Eastern Europe is part of the country’s broader policy toward the whole continent while fitting into Beijing’s possibilities to exert influence on what so far has referred to as the Western world.
Romanian Presidential Vote: Changes or No Change At All?
The past six months brought a few twists and turns in Romanian politics. Incidents like the Social Democratic Party’s (PSD) tied vote in the European elections, a jail sentence for a former leader of this post-communist party, followed by the fall of the cabinet and the establishment of the interim government unleashed what could be referred to as a crisis within the group’s ranks.
Sweden Faces the Russian Threat in the Baltic Sea
By beefing up its military presence in the exclave of Kaliningrad, flying provocative air patrols and by building next legs of the Nord Stream energy pipeline, Russia undermines the security of other countries in the Baltic region. Also, Moscow could take advantage of the pipeline’s energy infrastructure to take subversive actions in the Baltic Sea.
Who Will Bear the Banner of the 5G Revolution?
This simultaneously provides a range of never-before-seen opportunities and poses a threat to security, morphing into an issue that has ignited political rows around the world.
Poland’s 2019 Parliamentary Election
Held on October 13, 2019, Poland’s general election is first and foremost a success of democracy, as exemplified by crowds rushing to polling stations and a massive rise in voter turnout.
Russia in Africa: Weapons, Mercenaries, Spin Doctors.
The Kremlin eyes the African continent as yet another arena of a massive clash with the West, as it did under the Cold War reality. But their competition has now been of a rather practical and economic nature, pushing ideologies somewhere to the margin. Also, Moscow has enjoyed the positive image it had retained in Africa back from the Soviet times.
What’s Next For Turkey’s NATO Membership After S-400 Purchase?
Turkey has sealed a military deal with Russia, receiving the first parts of the Russian-made S-400 missile defense systems in the summer of 2019. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not bow to pressure from the United States, and Ankara’s determination to acquire Russian-built weaponry will enrage both Washington and its NATO peers.
Warsaw Institute
