Russia Monitor Monthly 1/23
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No Battle Of Kherson As Russia Ordered Troop Withdrawal
Ukrainian forces swept into the key city of Kherson as Russian troops retreated to the east. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said by the evening of November 12 Ukraine’s defense forces had liberated more than 60 cities, towns, and villages in Kherson Oblast. Russia has suffered a major defeat in the south of Ukraine, withdrawing from the western Kherson region––far more painful than in Kyiv and Chernihiv back in March.
The European Commission’s Guidelines regarding transit through Lithuania
On July 13, the Commission published new guidelines for the transit of Russian goods through Lithuania, allowing the transit of goods like steel and iron by train to Kaliningrad. The Commission’s point of view doesn’t seem to be randomly chosen, given the existing legal provisions. On a political level, however, the disagreement over the issue may have weakened Western unity against Russia.
Poland’s independence efforts under occupation during world war II
The project was co-financed by the National Heritage Institute of Roman Dmowski and Ignacy Jan Paderewski as part of the Patriotic Fund – edition 2022 Freedom in Polish, run by the Ministry of Culture and National Heritage.
Ukrainian Lawmakers Recognize Independence Of Chechen Republic Of Ichkeria
The Ukrainian parliament has declared Chechnya temporarily Russian-occupied land––a move that has little political significance but was a demonstrative effort, though. The Russian war is a sort of testing site for Chechen independence advocates and Kadyrov acolytes. Literally––Chechen battalions fight in Ukraine, siding with both Russian and Ukrainian forces.
Not Only Disputed Kuril Islands: Ties Between Russia, Japan Soured Considerably
First, the FSB detained a Japanese consul, then Moscow suspended a visa-free regime to travel off the Kuril Islands while Japan responded with a fresh batch of sanctions. Tensions have run high between Moscow and Tokyo. Both have a very slim chance to improve ties as Japan is aware of the Chinese threat and the Russian aggressive policy being two sides of the same coin.
Russia’s Energy Sales Suffer Amid Mild Weather And Chinese Lockdown Measures
Vladimir Putin is playing the energy crisis to force Western states and Ukraine into peace concessions. But the weather is not that much to the liking of the Kremlin as unusually mild temperatures tame European demand for gas. For its part, Chinese oil demand has shrunk amid new Covid lockdown measures across the country. Russia struggles to sell its energy, also amid the decline in prices.
Russia Responds To EU Price Caps By Reorienting Oil Exports
The Kremlin said that Russia would stop selling oil to countries that impose price caps on Russia’s energy resources. But now Moscow has to sell these gigantic supplies elsewhere. Russia is now facing a challenge to find new outlets for its oil supplies and create storage capacity.
Russia, Iran Forge Energy Cooperation
Iran is wading into Russia’s war on Ukraine with alleged reports to sell weapons to Moscow. Through military and political deals, Iran faces new sanctions. Despite that, Iran’s ayatollahs and the country’s president insist on forging closer ties with Russia.
Putin Seeks To Destroy Ukraine, Fight Western States
What Russian President Vladimir Putin said in recent days meant no change in his policy that indeed exacerbated since mid-September. In just three days, Russian President Vladimir Putin had a flurry of activities: he observed exercises by his nation’s strategic nuclear forces, attended meeting with heads of security services of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), held an operational meeting of the Russian Security Council, delivered a speech at the Valdai Discussion Club summit, took part in an emergency meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Collective Security Council, and received Sergei Shoigu, the defense minister, for talks. They all have one common––the Kremlin flexes its muscles, claiming it could further escalate the war in Ukraine and ignite tensions with Western states.
Russia Destroys Power, Energy Infrastructure Across Ukraine
Russian military strategy in Ukraine specifically calls for strategic operations to destroy critical infrastructure, bringing the country to the verge of a humanitarian crisis. Since the invasion began, Russian forces targeted critical infrastructure facilities, including power plants, energy grids, and oil and gas pipelines. A mass-scale campaign began on October 10. Russian drone strikes have damaged at least 40 percent of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, raising concerns about the coming winter.
Who’s Actually Interested In Blowing Up Ukrainian Dam?
It started with a Russian claim blaming Ukraine for staging a plot to blow up a Dnieper dam, which yet would make no sense as its destruction would slow down a Ukrainian offensive and cause a large-scale disaster affecting towns and cities. Ukrainian officials accused Russia of plotting to blow up the dam. For the Kremlin, it is a matter of honor to launch a fierce campaign to defend Kherson, and blowing up the dam suits neither side.
Rosneft CEO Sechin Claims EU Gas Price Caps Unreasonable
Russia Monitor is a review of the most important events related to Russian internal and external security, as well as its foreign policies. Date: Author: Grzegorz Kuczyński Rosneft CEO Sechin Claims EU Gas Price Caps Unreasonable A statement from the...
Russia Intimidates West With Nuclear Weapons
Russia’s nuclear drills are part of the country’s effort of scaring Western states off with possible nukes to be used in the Russia-Ukraine war. The Ukrainian government has said it suspects Russia is planning its own false flag operation. Russia has also waved the nuclear blackmail, a strategy that the Kremlin has followed since it invaded Ukraine. Moscow is aware that it will not intimidate Ukraine. Instead, it hopes to send a message to Western states, mostly Germany and France, that a nuclear option is still on the table.
Will Armenia Accept Russian Peace Proposals?
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that the country agreed to work with Russian proposals to establish relations with longtime rival Azerbaijan. The leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia are expected to meet in Sochi. The Kremlin has responded to Western diplomatic efforts in the South Caucasus, where the European Union remains strongly engaged in mediating a peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh.
The Role of Alaska in U.S. Arctic Strategy
The United States formally took possession of Alaska through the Alaska Treaty, ratified by U.S. Congress and signed into law by President Andrew Johnson in 1867. The state was admitted as the 49th state of the United States back in 1959. Purchasing a vast area north of Canada was not just a folly, which proves how strategically important Alaska is. This text describes the role of Alaska in the geopolitical chessboard now.
Ukraine Launches Diplomatic Counteroffensive in Africa
African nations are closely watching what is taking place in Ukraine as they depend heavily on grain supplies from the two warring sides. Shortly after the war broke out, many either remained neutral or sided with Russia. Now it has started to change. It is largely due to tremendous diplomatic efforts Ukraine has made in Africa––the continent where Kyiv has never had much political interest. Russia is doing differently––seeking to rebuild its Cold War influence by sending Wagner Group mercenaries and weapons to the continent.
Artillery And Rain: Situation Along Front Line In Ukraine
Russia failed to draw any conclusions from the uneasy situation that Ukrainian forces were in while in Kherson Oblast due to rainy weather. An advance towards Vuhledar and Pavlivka in the south of Donetsk Oblast was hampered by muddy weather. The bottom line is that the daily Russian death toll stood at a record number. The chilly, wet weather is making conditions particularly difficult, slowing the Russian and Ukrainian offensive over the next two months.
Russia Suspends Participation In Grain Export Deal
The Russian Federation’s decision to temporarily suspend its participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative is little surprising. Moscow has been bracing for this since at least mid-October. This fits into the Russian war strategy that involves targeting civilians to cripple the economy and create a humanitarian catastrophe.
Russia’s Syrian Withdrawal Could Prompt Israeli Help For Ukraine
Israeli missiles hit targets near the Syrian capital Damascus in a rare daytime attack on October 24. Some of the missiles were shot down by the Damascus air defense. Israeli strikes usually take place under the cover of darkness. Perhaps Israel is less concerned over the Russian-backed air-defense systems in Syria as Russian forces withdrew from some positions in the country.
Operation Kutschera
Operation Kutschera has been widely analyzed and described in sources. It was just one of many daring attempts the Home Army had made under the lengthy Nazi German occupation of Poland.
Warsaw Institute
