RUSSIA MONITOR MONTHLY 05/2021
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US-Russia Game of Chess for Central and Eastern Europe
It has been more than two weeks since Joe Biden’s last conversation with Vladimir Putin. The videoconference, which lasted more than two hours, focused on Russia’s potential aggression against Ukraine, the situation on NATO’s eastern flank, and the matter of Alliance’s enlargement by including new countries, especially those located in the so-called “near abroad” of the Russian Federation.
China-Russia Space Cooperation Continues
According to the information provided by the Russian national space agency Roscosmos and obtained by the Chinese daily The Global Times, China and Russia will sign a new space cooperation program for 2023-2027 in 2022. Several schemes are planned under it. This is yet another step in cooperation between Beijing and Moscow as well as rivalry with the US.
Baerbock’s Tough Stance on China?
The end of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s long political career and the resulting change of government in the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) is a reorganization that is significant not only in the German and European context, but for this country’s policy towards the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
Lukashenko, Putin Discuss Military In Russia
Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko met in St. Petersburg on the sidelines of an informal CIS summit, a meeting that confirms Moscow’s growing appetite to integrate its military with Belarus as soon as possible. Belarus is growing in importance for Russia amid mounting tensions with the North Atlantic Alliance and a tug-of-war in Ukraine.
Russia Boasts of New S-550 Missile System Capable of Targeting Satellites
Russia has successfully tested the S-550 air defense system, Russian military sources reported on December 28. The new system is derived from the S-500 Prometheus but will be capable of hitting ICBMs and satellites. It is another step toward building a Russian offensive space capacity that is dangerous to U.S. items orbiting around the Earth.
Hypersonic Weapons and Nuclear-Powered Vessels: A Russian Demonstration of Power?
An inherent part of the Russian policy is to convince the world of its military might. This explains why Moscow has recently hailed multiple launch tests or some hand-over ceremonies, especially amid smoldering tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine and NATO’s posture in Central and Eastern Europe.
Xi Jinping’s First Conversation with the New German Chancellor
On December 21, a telephone conversation took place between the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Xi Jinping and the new Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany Olaf Scholz, who took office on December 8.
Rosneft Approves New Strategy By 2030
The board of directors at Rosneft approved the new strategy “Rosneft-2030: Reliable Energy and Global Energy Transition.” It targets reduction of greenhouse gas emissions while further improving the operational and financial efficiency of the company.
Russia Sends “Governor” To Minsk
Moscow is replacing its incumbent ambassador to Belarus who has been in office for just a few months. A new candidate will be tasked with ensuring that the Kremlin consolidates its grip on the regime in Belarus. A new Russian ambassador to Minsk is an experienced official and a longtime ally of Vladimir Putin.
Putin Threatens NATO With Military Drills
The Russian leader is carrying on his information warfare against Western nations while pondering various options if they fail to meet Moscow’s demands for security guarantees. NATO offered to sit at the negotiating table on January 12, 2022, to discuss this topic, among others. Before this, the Kremlin might be using the military buildup to create a position of strength, also by comparing the standoff now to the Cold War-era Cuban missile crisis.
Putin Blames West For Stoking Tensions
It is nothing new that the Russian president threatens NATO and the United States, a strategy that now fits into Moscow’s policy of intimidating Western nations. Moscow distorts the fact, saying the West is posing a threat to Russia that has to respond accurately. Naturally, the situation looks different: Moscow’s aggressive behavior compels the United States and NATO to act defensively.
The Potential Escalation of the Conflict Between Superpowers
During his 2016 presidential campaign, Donald J. Trump strongly emphasized the negative impact of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on the international standing of the United States. Actions such as theft of intellectual property, undervaluation of the real value of the currency, state subsidies, or trade deficit were the main accusations against the communist regime. Nowadays, in the context of China’s power, not only the economic actions, but also the military and aggressive moves in the region are frequently discussed.
Vostok Oil: Trafigura Investment Backed By Russian Loans
Trafigura Group’s risk is limited in its investment in Vostok Oil, the company’s chief financial officer told Bloomberg News. Disclosing some details is beneficial for state-run Rosneft that is still looking to attract some foreign investors into its major Arctic project.
The Situation on the Poland-Belarus Border: Background, Geopolitics, Narratives
What is now taking place on the Poland-Belarus border was triggered by a political crisis in Belarus that has unfolded since August 2020. Back then, Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko, in power since 1994, was declared winner of a presidential election that opponents and the West said had been rigged.
Ukraine Blocks the Transit of Trains from China
In early December this year, Ukraine has blocked the transit of trains from the Commonwealth of Independent States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). These actions are an attempt to exert pressure on Poland to issue more entry permits for trucks.
Occupied Donbas: A Stronghold Of Russian Military
The so-called people’s republics in Donbas are in fact under Russian occupation. Moscow appoints the “authorities” in Donetsk and Luhansk as it provides financial assistance to both rebel-held areas. However, what links the occupied Donbas and Moscow is security, as confirmed by recent reports from Ukrainian intelligence services.
European Gas Prices Jump To Record As Russia Cuts Off Flows
After talking to Vladimir Putin, U.S. President Joe Biden said gas flows through Nord Stream 2 would be cut off if Russia invaded Ukraine. Nonetheless, Germany is not likely to bend to U.S. pressure. Having unfrozen the project, Biden has no longer any tool of pressure on the authorities in Berlin. Nord Stream 2 will not be a Western argument against Russia, as stated by the new Austrian chancellor.
Crisis on the Polish-Belarusian Border. Can China Help to Get Out of It? – Podcast
The Polish-Belarusian border crisis is definitely one of the most significant events of 2021, both in the European and international arena. Not only Lithuania (which is struggling with the same situation), but also important European players, such as Germany and France, the United States, as well as international organizations, for instance, NATO or the European Union, are already showing interest in the problem. According to political and media circles, China could play a significant part in solving this situation.
Xi-Putin December Talks
A video call between Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin and Chinese Communist Party Chairman Xi Jinping took place on December 15. Statements about good strategic cooperation were reiterated and coordination in the international arena was said to be maintained.
Nord Stream 2 Under Special Protection
After talking to Vladimir Putin, U.S. President Joe Biden said gas flows through Nord Stream 2 would be cut off if Russia invaded Ukraine. Nonetheless, Germany is not likely to bend to U.S. pressure. Having unfrozen the project, Biden has no longer any tool of pressure on the authorities in Berlin. Nord Stream 2 will not be a Western argument against Russia, as stated by the new Austrian chancellor.
Warsaw Institute
