RUSSIA MONITOR MONTHLY 05/2021
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Russian Oil Revenue Soar, Filling Moscow’s War Chest
The Kremlin has earned a record profit from oil although its invasion of Ukraine has continued for more than three months, triggering a set of punitive measures. Russia reports a drop in its exports to the European Union, but sells more to some alternative markets, notably India. Record-breaking oil prices mean more money to the Russian federal budget, also to sponsor the invasion of Ukraine. Oil-related revenues will edge up as the Russian finance ministry is planning to raise an export levy.
French, Italian, German Leaders Visit Ukraine, Mount Pressure On Kyiv
French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, and German Chancellor headed to Kyiv, Ukraine, to check whether the Ukrainian authorities are eager to make concessions to Russia to end the war. Perhaps the three Western leaders––all of whom contact regularly Vladimir Putin––have submitted a list of conditions for entering peace talks with Russia.
Russia’s “Party of War” Claims Poland Is Moving To Take Ukrainian Territory
Amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Poland has emerged as a key supporter of Ukraine. It was enough for Moscow to consider the country hostile to the Kremlin. Russia is fearful of the Poland-Ukraine rapprochement, which resonated in what the country’s foreign minister, chief of the foreign intelligence agency, and the Security Council secretary have said publicly.
Kremlin’s Latin American Foothold: Nicaragua Authorizes Russian Military Deployment
The government of Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega authorized the deployment of Russian troops, planes, and ships to Nicaragua for training, law enforcement, or emergency response purposes. This is another confirmation of the Russia-Venezuela alliance that resembles the one in the Cold War era when Sandinistas remained staunch allies of the Soviet Union. Russia sees the Ortega regime as a member of the Cuba-Venezuela-Nicaragua club that targets the United States and its Latin American allies. Moscow has played the first two for intelligence and military purposes and now Nicaragua joins the club.
Donbas Operation: Counteroffensive On Other Fronts
Ukraine’s fierce defense of the eastern town of Severodonetsk is more strategic than tactical, which resembles the defense of Mariupol. Kyiv is taking advantage of the Russian strategy where politics prevails over purely military considerations. Moscow’s efforts to amass troops in Donbas allow Ukraine forces to perform more efficient strikes both in the east and south. So seizing the whole Luhansk region, which is politically important, may mean territorial losses elsewhere, notably in the south.
China’s role in Afghanistan after the US withdrawal
After the United States Armed Forces withdrew from Afghanistan on 30 August 2021, many experts were envisaging a possible chance for China to fill the „vacuum” that has been left after 20 years long operation led by the US. Certainly, China and Russia were seen as the main beneficiaries of the US departure, specifically in terms of their political influence and expression of power.
Marcos Jr. presidential win a chance to boost Philippines relations with China?
The landslide victory of Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in the Philippines presidential elections on the 9th of May might bring a structural change to the ASEAN member country in relations with China and the United States, more likely being a boon for China. With 31.6 million votes and twice the votes gained by the opposition leader, Lena Robredo, son of deposed dictator Ferdinand Marcos has long-standing ties with China. As the result, Marcos Jr. will be the Philippines’ first majority president since 1965, when his father became president.
Biden welcomes Albanese among the great players. What will the relationship of the United States with Australia look like after the change of government in Canberra?
Joe Biden officially welcomed Australia’s new prime minister among the representatives of the leading nations in the Indo-Pacific. Anthony Albanese is the leader of the Australian Labor Party, which won the elections on May 21, three days before the QUAD summit in Tokyo. Despite the departure from power of the coalition of the Liberal Party and the Nationals, the direction of Australian politics is still aimed at a strong alliance with the United States.
Corporate Governance in Contemporary China in Corporate Social Responsibility perspective
The concept of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in China was firstly adopted after 1978 when Deng Xiaoping decided to open the country for foreign investors. The process of restructuring the China’s economy had a huge impact on the development of CSR.
Russian Military Goals After 100 Days Of War
As what Moscow refers to as a “special operation” in Ukraine enters a new stage, Moscow has to lower expectations. Russian forces failed to target Ukraine from many sides and toppled the government in Kyiv. Then troops withdrew from Ukraine’s north and northeast to amass forces before the Donbas operation. The Russians remain far from occupying the eastern Ukrainian region. What it now seems is that Moscow is pushing to claim the region at any price and then suggest a truce. This is bad news for Ukraine. That is why the Ukrainian military now fiercely defends some chunks of the Luhansk region with Severodonetsk and the Donetsk region where both Sloviansk and Kramatorsk are located.
The “17+1” format – threats and opportunities for the Republic of Poland and the Czech Republic
On May 31, 2022 the “The” 17 + 1 “format – threats and opportunities for the Republic of Poland and the Czech Republic” debate took place, which was organized by the Warsaw Institute as part of a project financed in cooperation with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland entitled ” Polish-Czech Forum ”. The debate was attended by the moderator Marcin Jerzewski, and two speakers, Warsaw Institute expert Wojciech Adamczyk, who represented the Polish side and David Plášek, the analyst of the Red Watch Program, representing the Czech side.
World Economic Forum – Davos 2022
The World Economic Forum was founded in 1971 by the German business professor Klaus W. Schwab. It is a forum for exchanging opinions and discussing the greatest (not only economic) problems of the modern world. Leading businessmen, politicians and scientists take part in these meetings. Usually it takes place in January, but exceptionally this year it has been postponed due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Biden confirms ‘Pax Americana’ in the Indo-Pacific region
The President of the United States made an important visit to Asia. The purpose of the Joe Biden administration was to explicitly respond to the growing threat posed by the Xi Jinping regime to the anti-Chinese states. Biden visited South Korea and Japan, where he took part in the next summit of the member states in the QUAD format.
Draft Law On Conscripts Will Help Russia’s FSB
Russian conscripts will soon be able to sign contracts with the Federal Security Service, or the FSB. On May 17, the State Duma adopted a draft law in its first reading. Its updated versions will help the FSB add more specialists to the staff, according to Russian lawmakers. In fact, this just shows to what extent Russian power structures quarrel over staff. It also signals a decrease in the quality of Russian military staff for whom educational requirements have been lowered. The bill is little beneficial for the Russian army. The FSB could take its staff, also in the middle of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when staff shortages are acute.
Some 90 Percent of Russian Companies Affected By Sanctions
The European Union has agreed on the sixth sanctions package that immediately cuts Russian oil imports to the bloc. As many as 87 percent of the polled entrepreneurs have been affected by sanctions imposed on Russia amid its invasion of Ukraine. Most of them say they have adapted to the new real, but some are struggling to run business in Russia.
Russia’s Sequential Strategy For Donbas Offensive
While in Ukraine’s Donbas, Russian forces are following the same strategy as they did in Syria. Many officers have fought in the Middle Eastern country. Instead of simultaneous pursuit of multiple goals, the Russians have picked one goal and are now sparing no efforts to achieve it. Only after completing one, another goal could be identified. Although it has little propaganda effect, the strategy is actually efficient.
Russia’s Oil Output and Exports Amid Sanctions
The collapse in Russia’s oil output is inevitable, according to Russian officials and oil companies. In May, Russia is recovering after a robust decline in oil output and exports in March and April. Despite more modest production and fewer supplies abroad in 2022, Russia does not forecast any decline in profits, which is due to high tariffs.
Gazprom’s Record Earnings Mean High Dividends
Russian gas giant Gazprom said on May 26 its board was recommending a dividend of 52.53 roubles per share on its 2021 results. The company added an annual general meeting of shareholders is due to approve the dividend on June 30. The 2021 gas crisis was beneficial for the Russian gas giant and so is the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Gas prices are still high while most EU countries still buy Russian-sourced gas even in forced to pay in roubles.
Russia Sends More Oil To Asian Countries
As Western nations are imposing sanctions on Russian oil while the EU is seeking to ban Russian crude totally, Moscow is looking for new market opportunities. It targets Asian countries that eagerly buy oil at record discounts.
Russian Ally Serbia Says Yes To Russian Gas, No To Sanctions
The authorities in Belgrade have consistently refused to impose sanctions on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, Serbia wants to join the European Union and has more robust economic ties with the bloc than Russia. But what changes the whole picture is political and security-related considerations. Moscow is throwing support to Serbia’s revisionist efforts and plays a leading role in the nation’s energy industry.
Warsaw Institute
