Russia Monitor Monthly 7/23
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Novatek Signs Arctic LNG 2 Deal With China
Russia’s biggest privately held gas company is cementing cooperation with Chinese-based businesses. Once it invited some businesses to join liquefied natural gas projects, Novatek wants to use one of them to export its gas commodities to China. In addition, it is yet another deal that corroborates ever-growing cooperation between Russia and China that boils down to buying Russian-sourced hydrocarbons by the latter country under poor conditions for Moscow if only because Russian energy projects for China receive full tax reliefs. Furthermore, Russian gas sent to China is cheaper than that to European states.
Event Summary: US-German relations – their past, present, and future: energy, security, EU, Russia, NATO | Diplomacy Talks Series
Completion of Nord Stream 2 will likely result in too much economic and political influence of the Russian Federation on Europe, especially the CEE, according to former US intelligence chief and US ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell in an interview for the Warsaw Institute think-tank. The event took place on June 23, 2021 and was organized by the Warsaw Institute think-tank within our Diplomacy Talks Series.
Will Eurasian Economic Community Integrate Around Crude Oil?
Countries of the Eurasian Economic Community should sign a joint agreement to establish a common market for crude oil and petroleum products in the next two years, according to Mikhail Myasnikovitch, Chairman of the Board of the Eurasian Economic Commission, who said this after its members met in Brest for talks.
Meanings on Hybrid Threats for the Security of Poland and NATO Countries
In the following years, there may be a further increase in the significance of hybrid threats for the security of Poland and NATO countries. Disinformation, cyberattacks, subversive activity, and low-intensity conflicts will be exacerbated by the advancing technological revolution and global connectivity – innovations create opportunities, but increase vulnerability, including hybrid threats.
Russia Feels Concerned By UK-Ukraine Military Cooperation
An incident off the Crimean coast that involved the HMS Defender, a Royal Navy destroyer, and Russian vessels outlined the ever-bigger role of the United Kingdom in supporting Ukraine in the Black Sea. It was aboard the British destroyer that took part in the incident alongside FSB patrol boats that representatives of Ukraine and the United Kingdom inked a memorandum to implement maritime projects.
The Iranian Political Scene
Iran, due of its central position in the Middle East, its conflict with the US and Israel, as well as the constant emotions fueled by its aggressive rhetoric, is a frequent subject of analyses and news reports. Unfortunately, in this case, quantity does not go hand in hand with quality. Much of the discussion on Iran in the media is dominated by the “Twitter journalism” and press releases.
Myanmar Junta Chief Arrives in Russia
Moscow is cementing ties with Myanmar’s military junta that seized power in the country. After Myanmar’s junta chief had arrived in Moscow to attend a military helicopter exhibition, the regime’s leader flew to Moscow for a couple of days, traditionally to take part in an annual security conference. General Mi Aung Hlaing also holds bilateral talks with Russian officials who stand firmly by the Myanmar junta.
China-ASEAN Relations in the Time of Pandemic
During the pandemic period, ASEAN countries became China’s number one trading partner, overtaking the European Union. Greater trade cooperation is the result of an increased integration in Southeast Asia concerning Asian and Chinese value chains. Companies from the PRC are also among the most active ones in direct investment as well as the execution of large infrastructure and energy contracts. As part of its vaccine diplomacy in this region, China has transferred the world’s largest quantities of COVID-19 jabs in the form of donations and business contracts. However, provocative actions and territorial disputes in the South China Sea, as well as the unsustainable use of Mekong River resources damage mutual relations.
Russia Violates Airspace over Baltic Sea in the Shadow of Geneva Summit
First, Russia sent a strategic bomber to the Baltic Sea and then its fighters intruded Lithuanian airspace to flex its military muscles in this part of Europe just before the Putin-Biden meeting. This means that Moscow has no intention of refraining from belligerent activities close to NATO’s eastern flank.
A Turkish Military Facility in the Caucasus? Moscow Voices Concern of Erdogan’s Visit
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has dismissed speculation that Turkey could build a military base in Azerbaijan as “rumors.” However, the visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the Caucasus must have been a deep concern to Russia. A possible Turkish military facility there is just one of the reasons for Erdogan’s visit to Azerbaijan.
Energy Attacks on Diplomats
A number of American diplomats, primarily those based in Cuba and China, showed specific clinical symptoms between 2016 and 2018. Those affected by the previously unknown condition reported: sudden pain, pressure, and vibrations in the head, loud noise that seemed to come from a specific direction, and pain in one or both ears that accompanied it. Some of them also complained about tinnitus, vision problems, lack of concentration, and dizziness.
A Future FSB Director? He Got Promotion from Putin
As the incumbent head of the Russian Federal Security Service, or FSB, is close to retire, the fight to become his successor now reaches a crucial stage. There are many candidates, but now it seems that plans are to appoint someone from the FSB. In early June, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a secret decree to promote Colonel General Sergei Korolev, who serves as the first deputy head of the Federal Security Service, to the rank of an army general.
Putin Names Shoigu, And Not Medvedev, In Kremlin Harsh Election Course
Russian officials just started an election campaign before September’s parliamentary vote. President Vladimir Putin revealed top candidates on the federal list of United Russia, the country’s dominant party that seeks to preserve its constitutional majority despite low popularity ratings. The Russian regime took violent action to stifle opposition and curb the possibility to monitor any instances of vote-rigging. Possibly fearing a popular rally after the vote, Putin might have taken a lesson from Lukashenko and thus has embarked on a harsh course now. Picking defense and foreign ministers to head the United Russia list also hints at the party’s harsh rhetoric. Placing Shoigu as the “number one” on the list instead of Dmitry Medvedev, whom many believed to be the favorite in the run-up, aims to increase voter enthusiasm. While Shoigu is now among the most popular Russian politicians, Medvedev is relatively unpopular.
What Biden-Putin Summit Means for Eastern Europe
As expected, the meeting between the U.S. and Russian leaders did not bring any major decisions––let alone a breakthrough in bilateral ties. It seems that both presidents took advantage of the summit to paint their visions and score some political goals. Probably they are both satisfied with the talks in their own manner as Biden posed as a tough politician issuing warnings while Putin showed he is still a top player worldwide. This yet does not mean that the summit has not offered anything to other interested parties.
New developments in US-German relations: energy, security, EU, Russia, NATO
Warsaw Institute & The Warsaw Institute Review quartely have an honour to invite you to our upcoming online event – part of the Warsaw Institute’s “Diplomacy Talks Series”: New developments in US-German relations: energy, security, EU, Russia, NATO.
China’s Response to the G7 Summit in Cornwall
The G7 summit was held in a small town of Carbis Bay in Cornwall, UK, between June 11 and 13. Few passages of the final communiqué devoted to China were criticized by the PRC.
Ukraine Is Afraid of Biden-Putin Meeting
Ukrainian state authorities are right to be fearful of the outcomes of the meeting of the U.S. and Russian leaders. Earlier, the U.S. administration had given the green light to Russia to complete Nord Stream 2 without notifying Ukraine. The U.S. leader Joe Biden also ignored an appeal from Volodymyr Zelensky for a meeting before talks with Vladimir Putin. Ukraine said it would not accept any agreements reached in discussions in Geneva.
Ukraine Ready to Take Legal Action against Gazprom over Gas Transit
Ukraine is prepared to take legal action against Gazprom to unblock the flow of gas through its territory. “If Gazprom does not execute the deal, we are ready to take it to international arbitration,” Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal was quoted as saying. Ukraine’s Naftogaz estimated its potential claim at some $7.2 billion. Furthermore, the Ukrainian gas company could come back to its $12.2 billion worth of claims against Gazprom it had earlier withdrawn.
Coronavirus in Russia: Moscow Authorities Take Desperate Decision
On June 12, Russia confirmed 14,723 new coronavirus cases–– the most infections the country has seen since mid-February. The situation leveled off in the following days but as of June 14, Russia has reported 5,222,408 cases since the start of the coronavirus pandemic while its total excess fatality count now stands at 126,801.
NATO 2030 at BRUSSELS FORUM
During the meeting co-organized on June 14, 2021 by the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF), one of the guests of which was NATO Secretary General – Jens Stoltenberg, issues related to the Alliance summit organized in Brussels in June this year were discussed.
Warsaw Institute
