Russia Monitor Monthly 7/23
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Blinken Visits Poland, Confirms U.S.-Poland Ties
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Poland on the first Saturday of March. While at the Polish-Ukrainian border later, the U.S. chief diplomat met Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau. Blinken came to Poland to confirm robust ties between his state and Poland as well as NATO’s commitment to security on the country’s eastern flank. He also spoke highly of Polish people who helped Ukrainian refugees.
Russian Invasion Of Ukraine: Could Russia Use Chemical And/Or Biological Weapons In Ukraine?
With Russia’s frantic claims that Ukraine was operating non-conventional weapons, there are increasing concerns that Russia could be prepared to use chemical weapons to attack Ukraine. Russia has a track record of accusing the West of the very crimes that Russia itself is perpetrating.
As Oil Price Drops, Russia Hikes Export Tariffs
The Russian oil-export duty will grow in early April this year, the Russian government announced amid a new trend of declining oil prices worldwide. As the Russia-Ukraine war has so far influenced a price increase, what might also worry many is a possible slowdown in the Chinese economy and Western efforts to look for new energy supplies to curb reliance on Russian energy and thus push prices down.
Russia’s Gazprom Hikes Gas Exports
With the veto from some EU countries, Russia can trade its gas and oil to Europe quite freely. Those that are most short of blue fuel in their storage facilities are countries in western Europe that fell victim to Gazprom’s deliberate strategy to inject little gas to the facilities last year and fill them with commodities only in November.
Russian Invasion Of Ukraine: Russia To Bring Mercenaries To Ukraine
The Kremlin is reportedly fearful of suffering incalculable losses in conscripts and will possibly wage a lengthy and bloody war against Ukraine. This is perhaps why Moscow is seeking to hire thousands of mercenaries––mostly from Syria––and send them to Ukraine. Making this statement public means that the Kremlin’s strategy is to intimidate people in Ukraine by painting a picture of ruthless Muslim warlords who arrived in the war-torn country to terrorize civilians.
Russian Invasion Of Ukraine: The Battle Of Mariupol, Or A Ukrainian Stalingrad
The southern Ukrainian city of Mariupol, which had a pre-war population of 500,000, has been a top target of Russian forces since they invaded Ukraine. Seizing the city would bring about a massive propaganda effect for Russia and prompt Moscow’s retaliation for the efficient defense the port located on the Sea of Azov had seen back in 2014.
Biden Announces Supreme Court Nominee
On Friday, February 25, US President Joe Biden officially introduced his nominee for Supreme Court justice. Ketanji Brown Jackson, 51, is expected to replace retiring Justice Stephen G. Breyer. The choice is of exceptional importance as Jackson will be the first Black woman who will take up the post at America’s highest judicial body.
Strengthening between China and Russia with the Ukrainian conflict
On the afternoon of February 25th, a telephone conversation was held between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, where the two sides exchanged views on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The Russian president argued the situation and position of Russia’s special military operations in the eastern part of Ukraine, claiming that the United States and NATO have long ignored his country’s reasonable security concerns, repeatedly failing to fulfill their commitments, continuing their advance in military deployment to the east, challenging Russia’s strategic outcome.
Day 15 of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Stalled Incursion, Diplomatic Failure
After the first three days of the offensive, it was clear that the war was not going as Russia had planned. Last week saw some territorial gains from the Russian army that yet got stalled. After nearly two weeks, Russian forces are unable to encircle Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. The Ukrainian army is still fighting in Chernihiv, Suma, and Kharkiv. Russian forces indeed encircled Mariupol but are incapable of seizing the city. Mykolaiv has been under intense fire by Russian forces, but the aggressor did not seize the city. In some Russian-occupied towns, people take to the streets in the most visible example yet of resistance to Russian occupation. Russian troops are now suffering low morale. Yet mercenaries are unlikely to be deployed to the war theatre instead of young conscripts. What shows Russia’s worsening position is that its foreign minister Sergey Lavrov agreed to hold talks with Ukraine’s Dmytro Kuleba, but nothing concrete came out of this meeting.
Is the United States Partially Responsible for Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine?
Vladimir Putin’s bloody regime invaded Ukraine in the last week of February. Since then, the media are constantly reporting on the course of hostilities and the losses on both sides of the conflict. Thousands of civilians have died, and the borders of European Union (EU) countries have been flooded with crowds of refugees looking for a safe place. The United States became the leader in response to the criminal actions of the Russian Federation and rallied the entire Free World in an economic counteroffensive against the Putin regime. However, looking back at the last 20 years, one can conclude that Washington also bears some responsibility for the current situation in Ukraine.
Israel’s Apartheid Policy Towards Palestinians
Human Rights Watch concludes from its research that the Israeli government has demonstrated an intention to maintain the domination of Jewish Israelis over Palestinians in Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPT). In OPTs, including East Jerusalem, this intention has been combined with systematic oppression of Palestinians and acts of violence committed against them. When these three elements occur together, they make up the crime of apartheid. According to the report, Israeli officials also committed the crime of persecution against humanity.
Day 12 of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Fierce Fighting in Mykolaiv, Russia Sustains Bigger Losses
Russian forces remain stalled everywhere except for the southern front. The aggressor has sustained heavy losses and is now short of reinforcements as Moscow has involved all military forces previously massed along the Ukrainian border. The Russians are regrouping for new attacks on key targets, notably those of Kyiv and Kharkiv, while clearly targeting civilian areas. Russian forces are shelling civilian infrastructure as civilians are seeking to escape, which makes it clear they got such an order from the Kremlin’s top officials. But this strategy has backfired, making the Ukrainians fight back and weighing heavily on Russia, mostly in the information space.
ASEAN’s Relations with the EU and Poland: An Analysis
International relations are a system of communicating vessels where individual subjects of international law are primarily the participants in the global economy. The Euro-Atlantic area, affected by numerous political and economic processes, originating both inside and outside its territory, cannot therefore be regarded as a completely isolated system, in which only NATO and its member states, or the European Union and the United States, would play a role. A good example of this is the recurring negative influence of the Russian Federation as a European security actor.
AUKUS Trilateral Meeting and the US Indo-Pacific Strategy
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs Marise Payne, and British Foreign Secretary Elizabeth Truss held a trilateral meeting at the Munich Security Conference. The meeting of the members of the pact, concluded at Joe Biden’s initiative in September 2021, concerned the progress in implementing initiatives under the AUKUS trilateral security partnership. This pact focuses on maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region.
Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine: Day 8. Ukraine’s Efficient Defense Capabilities
March 3 saw no major shifts in the military theater. Russian forces have advanced only along the southern front. Ukraine retains control of the capital, Kyiv, and its biggest cities of Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and Mariupol, despite heavy fighting, continue to repel Russian assaults. A second round of ceasefire talks with Russia had not yielded the results Kyiv hoped for, but Ukrainian negotiators reached an agreement to create humanitarian corridors to evacuate citizens from besieged cities.
Day 7 of Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Kharkiv, Mariupol, and Kherson Come under Heavy Fire
As the Russian invasion of Ukraine entered its next day on March 2, some heavy fighting was reported. The Russian convoy is stalled but its forces are encircling Ukraine’s bigger cities to destroy them. At the end of the day, forces defending Kherson were in the worst situation on the southern front. But the Russian offensive on Kyiv slowed down.
The war in Ukraine is a major challenge for China
On February 4th. on the eve of the Winter Olympics, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, the leaders of Russia and China declared that friendship between these two countries “has no limits”. Just a few weeks later, when the war in Ukraine has begun, this friendship has been put to a serious test.
The US-China competition over Vietnam
The ongoing competition between the US and China over the sphere of influence in Vietnam has been intensifying. Vietnam can be considered as one of the most important partners for the United States in the Indo-Pacific region. At the same time, China seems to be an unavoidable partner for Vietnam. It all can be easily observed through diplomatic efforts that both countries are putting to place themselves at the pole position.
Polish-Pakistani Relations (Joint Event The Youth Diplomacy Forum from Pakistan)
A joint international conference, organized by the Youth Diplomacy Forum and the Warsaw Institute, was held on February 21, 2022. The main topic of the event was Polish-Pakistani relations. The participants of the meeting included H.E. Mr. Malik Muhammad Farooq, Ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan to Poland, H.E. Mr. Piotr Andrzej Opaliński, former Ambassador of the Republic of Poland to Pakistan, Dr. Syed Sibtain Shah from the National University of Modern Languages in Islamabad, and moderator Ms. Liliana Śmiech, Director of Public Relations at the Warsaw Institute.
Equinor Quits Russia, Joining Other Oil Giants
Norway’s state-owned energy company Equinor announced on February 28 it would “start the process of exiting its Russian joint ventures.” Equinor has followed BP and Shell in announcing plans to withdraw from Russia following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Warsaw Institute
