Russia Monitor Monthly 7/23
Content
What’s Next For Turkey’s NATO Membership After S-400 Purchase?
Turkey has sealed a military deal with Russia, receiving the first parts of the Russian-made S-400 missile defense systems in the summer of 2019. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not bow to pressure from the United States, and Ankara’s determination to acquire Russian-built weaponry will enrage both Washington and its NATO peers.
Bucharest Security Conference 2019
The Warsaw’s Institute President of the Board, Krzysztof Kamiński took part in a panel on hybrid threats and resilience of the society during the largest conference in Romania devoted to security issues and cooperation within NATO.
Ten candidates will compete for the position of the President of Romania
More people declared their willingness to run for elections but not everyone managed to collect 200 000 votes of support and provide them to the Central Election Bureau. In turn, part of them withdrew from the competition. The elections scheduled for November 10 are to decide who will take the presidential seat.
Poland Needs Nuclear Power Plants, And U.S. Could Help
80 percent of Poland’s electricity comes from coal. Along with the rocketing costs of CO2 emissions and the higher demand for energy, its prices are going down, a tendency that raises concern on the Vistula. Poland’s energy transformation is a must, and renewable energy is not enough: the country will need nuclear power plants.
Meetings with Geopolitics: USA – EU – Russia. Geopolitical Update
On 03.10.2019, The Warsaw Institute Review (WIR) hosted the second event in the series “Spotkania z Geopolityką”, which translates to “Meeting with Geopolitics”, with the theme of “USA – EU – Russia Geopolitical Update”.
Two Countries, Same Destiny – Embassy of Romania in Warsaw
On Tuesday, 01.10.2019, the Embassy of Romania in Warsaw hosted an event titled “Two Countries, Same Destiny – One Century of Diplomatic Relations and 10 Years of Strategic partnership between Poland and Romania”, or in short, “Two Countries, Same Destiny”.
British tanks and helicopters in Estonia. Operation Tractable
Great Britain has started its military contingent rotation in Estonia – this time it is also an element of the extensive operation aimed to check the mobility capabilities of the British army in Europe.
Strategic Cyber Forum – CyberDefence24 Day
A delegation of the Warsaw Institute attended the first-ever edition of the Strategic Cyber Forum, an event that took place in Warsaw on October 1, 2019. Hosted by Defence 24, the meeting served as a platform for a discussion on cybersecurity issues at the time of the technological revolution spreading worldwide between businesspeople and governmental officials, as well as experts and market commentators.
Putin Introduces Personnel Shifts in Law Enforcement Agencies
Under a presidential decree, Vladimir Putin made a number of personnel reshuffles amongst senior officials who held top positions in the Investigate Committee, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Ministry of Emergency Situations, and the Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN of Russia). Several officials and officers have been relieved from their duties, while some of their colleagues were transferred to other positions.
Danylyuk’s dismissal. Kolomoyskyi was the reason?
Oleksandr Danylyuk is no longer the Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine. One of the main representatives of the reformers in Volodymyr Zelensky’s staff probably resigned because he could not accept making concessions to oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyi. It is not known yet how the resignation of Danylyuk, one of the most pro-Western politicians in the ruling camp, will influence Ukrainian politics.
Air provocations, Russian ambassador called
Between September 23 and 29, NATO aircraft participating in the Baltic Air Policing mission launched eight times to identify and escort Russian aircraft over the Baltic – according to the Lithuanian Ministry of Defence. In most cases, Russians did not provide flight plans, their transponders were turned off and they did not react to attempts to communicate via radio. In one case, a Russian plane violated the airspace of Estonia which provoked diplomatic protest of authorities in Tallinn.
Georgia Is Tilting Towards Political Turmoil
Newest polls found that only a dozen or so percent of Georgian citizens see their country going in the right direction. On the one hand, a change in power in the next year’s general vote is likely to happen if the Georgian political stage witnesses the birth of the long-awaited “third political force.”
The U.S. Unfreezes Military Aid to Kyiv, the Pentagon Reaps Benefits
Delayed but finally launched. U.S. military aid to Ukraine is of great importance for Kyiv. The aid package should not have been mixed up in U.S. internal politics, however, there are indications suggesting that this is precisely what has happened, hence the delay. The U.S. military aid enables Ukraine to stand up to Russian aggression in a more effective way as well as to minimise the number of human losses in the Donbass. The arrangement can also benefit the Pentagon, which can now draw conclusions by observing how the Russians react to the U.S. equipment and weapons being used in the field.
Parliamentary Inquiry Launched in Lithuania: MP Irina Rozova Accused of Cooperating with Russian Diplomats
The Lithuanian Seimas has decided that one of the parliamentary committees will conduct an investigation aimed at determining whether the actions of MP Irina Rozova posed threats to Lithuania’s national security. The VSD, the country’s counter-intelligence, revealed that for many years Rozova has had close ties with Russian diplomats and has discussed a number of political issues with them.
Belarus Merges Oil Firms That Operate Druzhba Pipeline
Starting from October 1, the Belarusian leg of the Druzhba oil pipeline will be handled by one company instead of two, as before. This step was taken to economize operator-related processes and push ahead stricter control of the oil pipeline, a top-priority answer after the Druzhba contamination incident in April. Merging two operators into one may lay the groundwork for talks to restore oil shipments to the Baltics.
Russian Military Personnel in Mozambique: Bringing Another African Nation Closer to Moscow
According to unofficial reports that have been on since mid-September, Russian military personnel has been deployed to a few of Mozambique’s naval ports, a step that might have been taken in the wake of a batch of deals inked by Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi during his August visit to Moscow. Mozambique is yet another African country where Russia has been looking to push forward its economic and military presence.
Putin Meets China’s Parliament Chairman in the Kremlin
On September 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin received for talks Li Zhanshu who serves as a member of the Standing Committee of the Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China and the chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress of China.
Ways to Keep Putin in Power
A new voice in favor of changing Russia’s constitution. This time, in a press interview, this idea was supported by Sergey Chemezov. The head of Rostec, a state-owned mega-corporation, and Putin’s former KGB comrade, is considered to belong to a close circle of the president’s co-workers and friends. His statement means that the subject of constitutional changes that could keep Putin in power is still being discussed at the top governmental levels. The speech of Chemezov, previously unknown for such actions, also signalizes a possible conflict escalation between various interest groups in Putin’s environment.
Estonia: The Opposition Faces Major Defeats in Parliament and Loses Support in Ratings
After several months of campaigning, the main opposition force, the Reform Party, has failed to overthrow or, at the very least, to weaken the government led by Jüri Ratas. Moreover, public opinion polls also seem to confirm the stabilisation of the political scene in Estonia.
In the Kremlin, Venezuela’s Maduro Gets Russia’s Full Support
There is no question that Russia will neither reduce nor halt its support for Venezuela. Quite the contrary, in fact – the more sanctions are being introduced by the United States and the European Union, the stronger is Russia’s involvement in supporting Maduro’s regime.
Warsaw Institute
