Russia Monitor Monthly 3/23
Content
What Putin’s Partial Mobilization In Russia Means For Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday announced a partial military mobilization in Russia. He also expressed support for staged referendums that would allow the annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory. The Russian leader has thus admitted defeat in Ukraine. What he labeled as a “special military operation” has turned into an all-out war while Russian efforts to claim four regions that Moscow has not captured fully are nothing but a frantic attempt to restore control.
Defense of Westerplatte: The First Battle of World War II
The heroic defense of Westerplatte is recognized as the first battle of World War II. The garrison of the Polish Army, which from September 1 to September 7, 1939, defended the peninsula against the attack of the German battleship Schleswig-Holstein, has forever gone down in history.
Tensions Run High Between Armenia, Azerbaijan, Testing Russian Regional Ambitions
Deadly clashes that erupted along the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia near the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh challenge the militarily weak Armenia and Russia’s allied commitments. A successful Azerbaijani offensive in Armenia would mark Russia’s weakness and its being inept to deliver allied commitments in the post-Soviet zone.
Ukraine Takes Strategic Initiative On Two Fronts
Ukraine’s military says it has broken through Russia’s first line of defense in the Kharkiv region while advancing towards the Kherson region. Russia has no trained reserve personnel. Moscow has no longer an advantage on land, with its only assets remaining as missile attacks throughout Ukraine and a navy blockade.
Why Ukraine War Matters For Chechnya’s Kadyrov
Sharp, or even hysterical, criticism of the Russian military shows how important the fate of the war in Ukraine is for Ramzan Kadyrov. The leader of Chechnya has strong ties to Vladimir Putin––but not Russia. If Putin’s regime fell, Kadyrov would have trouble retaining power in the region. Thus, the Kremlin-installed leader is anxious to see Russia winning the war it had started in Ukraine.
Attack at Russian embassy in Afghan capital
An attack took place on September 5, 2022, in the Afghan capital, Kabul, in front of the entrance to the Russian Embassy. Two people were wounded and four were killed, including two employees of the diplomatic mission; there were also casualties among Afghan civilians standing in line to the building. The attack was organized by a suicide bomber who was killed by Taliban security guards.
The Drama of the General
The fate of General Kazimierz Sosnkowski during World War II reflects the tragic situation of Poles at the time.
AUKUS First Anniversary: Is U.S. Advocate Of UK-Australia Partnership?
One year ago, in mid-September, the United Kingdom, and the United States announced an enhanced trilateral security partnership called AUKUS. In 2021, the trilateral deal focused mostly on defense technologies for submarines and long-range missiles. Over the past year, we have witnessed many reshuffles on the political scenes of the alliance’s member states. Where is it at one year after?
The Indomitable: Colonel Łukasz Ciepliński’s Fight for Poland’s Freedom pt. I
Colonel Łukasz Ciepliński “Pług” (lit. Plough) was a cursed soldier, a great patriot with indomitable spirit. He was born on November 26, 1913, in the village of Kwilcz. As a soldier, he was a member of the White Eagle Organization, the Union of Armed Struggle (Związek Walki Zbrojnej), the Home Army and the anti-communist Armed Forces Delegation for Poland. In 1945, he assumed command of the Southern Poland District of Freedom and Independence (Wolność i Niezawisłość), a Polish anti-communist association. He is rightly considered one of the legendary leaders of the Polish Underground State and the Second Conspiracy. Eventually captured and tortured by the NKVD, he left behind secret messages written in his cell and intended for his wife and son. He wrote them in the final moments of his life, just before his execution in 1951. They represent the dream of a free and independent Poland, a testament to his love for his family, God, and Homeland.
More Delegations in Taiwan. American Warships Back in the Taiwan Strait
Over a month has passed since Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei. At that time, more delegations of American congressmen and state-level political representatives followed suit. After several days of intense military maneuvers around Taiwan in response to the Pelosi visit, American warships returned to the Taiwan Strait.
Ukraine’s Attack Near Kharkiv Poses a Threat to Russia’s Goals in the Donbas
As of now, three theaters of land warfare can be distinguished in Russia’s war with Ukraine. One is the southern front, mainly the Kherson region, or more precisely its part on the western side of the Dnieper River. To the east, there are two major fronts. Until recently, the key one had been the Donbas, but the last days on the Kharkiv front turned out to be of great importance for the power balance along the border of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
How the 2022 US midterm elections are changing Big Tech online policies and what can we expect?
Drawing back from the lessons learned during the 2020 presidential elections, Big Tech companies have adopted new strategies to mitigate what culminated in the January 6 insurrection at the US Capitol in 2021. Indeed, the FBI’s raid of former President Trump’s home in Mar-A-Lago, has revived the online narrative into another wave of rage that has set off the conversation amidst the midterms.
What a New Nuclear Deal with Iran Would Mean for the European Union
As the likelihood of a new nuclear deal treaty with the Islamic Republic of Iran looms closer, the European Union is anticipating the entry of Iranian energy into global markets. The initial Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement negotiated in 2015 fell apart when the United States unilaterally withdrew in 2018, causing Iran to walk back on agreed points.
Protests in Iraq as Muqtada Al-Sadr Announces His Withdrawal from Politics
The announcement of cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s departure from Iraqi political life has ignited major protests in the country’s capital, Baghdad. Violent clashes have broken out in the streets, resulting in many injuries and deaths. Iraqi security forces are doing everything they can to contain the protests, but the cleric’s words about leaving politics have caused a major upheaval in Iraqi society.
Gas Sector In War-Torn Ukraine
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has delivered a severe blow to the Ukrainian gas sector. Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine have decreased while many infrastructure facilities were badly damaged in Ukraine. Gazprom’s price war elevated prices for European countries and Ukraine will need more gas before the heating season.
Ukraine Starts Counteroffensive In Country’s South
Ukraine’s politicians and top military officials have announced a counteroffensive in the south of the country. Heavy fighting is taking place in almost the entire territory of the Kherson region. Yet Ukrainian forces will not retake Russian-controlled swathes of land quickly. It is another phase of a long-term operation that could last until October after weeks-long artillery shelling.
Another SBU Official Suspected Of State Treason
Ukraine’s main intelligence and security agency SBU reported suspicion of treason to the temporary acting head of the Institute for the Training of Legal Personnel for the Security Service of the Yaroslav Mudry National University of Law. He is another person suspected and detained for spying for Russia.
Russia’s Gazprom Offers Extra Gas Supplies To Hungary, Cutting Off Deliveries To Other Countries
Gazprom will send more gas to Hungary while cutting off supplies to Germany and France. Russia’s gas strategy is characterized by two principles. First, state-run gas giant Gazprom has for more than a year pushed to increase gas prices throughout Europe. Secondly, Moscow applies a reward-and-punishment mechanism for some countries, depending on their stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Taliban As Another Market For Russian Oil Companies?
The Taliban administration is in the final stages of talks in Moscow over the terms of a contract for Afghanistan to purchase gasoline and benzene from Russia, according to Afghan officials. A delegation of Taliban officials led by the trade and industry minister is negotiating a deal with their Russian counterparts to secure imports of wheat and oil. Russian oil and fuel exports to Afghanistan will not be significant, but what matters more than the economy is the propaganda and political message. Russia seeks to add a new country to the list of Russian energy importers and boost mutual ties.
France’s TotalEnergies And Its Activities In Russia
Western businesses quit Russia––some do it quickly while others just pretend to withdraw from the country. A fierce controversy recently broke out over France’s TotalEnergies and its activities on Russia, soil, according to French daily Le Monde.
Warsaw Institute
