Russia Monitor Monthly 1/23
Content
Dismissals, Arrests, Suicide: Can Anyone Reform Ukraine’s SBU?
A recently reported suicide of a senior SBU officer is another bad news for Ukraine’s intelligence services. As Ukraine’s SBU intelligence agency performed poorly after the country had been invaded by Russia, Zelensky said he would cleanse the special services. The problem is not in personnel but in the fact who oversees Ukraine’s most powerful intelligence outlet.
Events in the MENA area of the first half of August 2022 (9-18 August)
Read the most important events in the Middle East and North Africa region in the first half of August 2022.
Ukraine On High Alert For Possible Independence Day Attacks
Russia often makes political or military decisions based on history and symbolism. Ukraine is afraid its infrastructure might be struck in an attack on Independence Day (August 24). The Kremlin could seek to retaliate for the killing of Darya Dugina, daughter of ideologue Alexander Dugin, and a series of Ukrainian attacks against Russian targets in Russian-occupied Crimea.
The military capabilities among Antarctic claimant states
This research paper thinks about a potential military rivalry for territories in Antarctica. It focuses on the seven states, that have yet asserted territorial claims in Antarctica: Argentina, Chile, Australia, New Zealand, Norway, France and the United Kingdom. The intention is to give a provisional, superficial review about the overall numbers of weapon systems since 2015 in connection with their range and their geographic proximity to Antarctica.
Currently, the UK, France and Australia appear to be the most militarily capable states among the seven claimant states.
Lviv Summit Confirms Erdogan’s Diplomatic Offensive
A meeting that brought the presidents of Ukraine and Turkey and the UN Secretary-General corroborates successful diplomatic efforts, an example of which was a deal to resume grain exports. The one who serves a pivotal role is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
US-India maneuvers on the India-China border. What about the South China Sea?
Despite the fact that due to the recent visit of the US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi in Taiwan, the eyes of all observers are focused on the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, it is also worth bearing in mind the situation on the disputed border between the Republic of India and the People’s Republic of China.
Attacks In Crimea Mark New Front For War In Ukraine
Recent Ukrainian strikes on targets in Russian-occupied Crimea have revealed Moscow’s weak grip on the peninsula. Much has been said about a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kherson region. But the Ukrainian military can target the enemy elsewhere. Their aim consists in recapturing the sways of land in the south that Russia seized past February 24 and perhaps in efforts to retain Crimea. In a worst-case scenario, the Russians could strive for keeping control of the peninsula, both military and economically.
One year after the Taliban took power in Afghanistan
A year ago, in August, the Taliban took over the government in Afghanistan. Since then, a lot has changed for the state and its inhabitants.
An eye for an eye, Bolton for Soleimani
The US Department of Justice informed the US public about the Iranian government’s plan to assassinate John Bolton, a former White House national security adviser. The American politician exposed himself to the rulers in Tehran with his critical comment on a member of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Armenia’s Pashinyan Questions Russian Peacekeeping Presence
A new incident on the boundary between Azerbaijan and Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh sparked a strong response from the latter country. The authorities in Baku have long frowned upon the Russian military presence in the region. Now Armenia joins those complaints, but for different reasons, and this could weaken the Russian military in Nagorno-Karabakh or even make them leave.
Tensions spark in Asia over Pelosi’s tour in the Indo-Pacific
China insisted that a visit to Taiwan by the American delegation led by The U.S.House of Representatives Speaker Ms. Nancy Pelosi would be a ‘blatant’ breach of the “one China” policy governing the territory’s status, and a signal of American support for Taiwanese independence.
Announcement of the 31st Economic Forum
Three days of conference, over three hundred debates and four thousand guests from Europe, Central Asia and the USA. Karpacz will for the third time become the centre of the Economic Forum – an event that has been gathering political, economic and social leaders for thirty years. The conference is organized by the Foundation Institute for Eastern Studies.
Polish-Czech Forum 2022 Report
The project “What unites us, what separates us?” assumes the initiation of a public debate on Polish-Czech relations and their impact on the Polish and Czech state and society, as well as the importance of Poland and the Czech Republic in the world and their place in shaping the situation on the international arena.
Maronite Church under fire from Hezbollah
On July 18, 2022, Musa Al-Hajj, Archbishop of Lebanese Maronites, was detained on his way back home and arrested after crossing the Lebanese-Israeli border. Officials in Lebanon accuse the archbishop of breaking the law, contributing to the normalization of relations with Israel. On July 24, 2022, the decision of the Lebanese authorities was met with protests from Christian believers.
The US is betting on Australia. Are preparations for a potential conflict with China underway?
The United States is increasing its involvement in the South Pacific. Tensions between the US and China are growing, and Australia appears to be one of the Biden administration’s main foreign policy tools to maintain a balance of power in the region. Washington is intensifying cooperation with Canberra in the diplomatic and armaments fields.
Study completed for first nuclear station in Poland
US-based Westinghouse and Bechtel have completed a front-end engineering and design (Feed) study for the construction of nuclear power plants in Poland, the Polish Press Agency (PAP) reported.
US drone attack in Afghanistan killed Ayman al-Zawahiri – leader of Al-Qaeda
On Monday, the FBI released a poster about the death of the Al-Qaeda leader, a 71-year-old Egyptian doctor. Ayman Al-Zawahiri was killed by a drone attack in Afghanistan, where he was in his hideout. At the time of the drone attack, he was on a balcony and it was then that two missiles were fired at him, which led to his death. The attack was organized by the CIA, Al-Zawahiri and Osama Bin Laden worked closely together on the September 11 attack.
Polish-Czech cultural cooperation. What unites and what separates us?
On June 30, two experts professionally focused on culture and cultural relations – Sylvie Vůjtková, Theatre dramaturge, PR manager and producer, and Jan Hernik, Editor-in-chief at the Warsaw Institute – discussed Czech–Polish cultural cooperation. They focused especially on what unites and what divides us. Sylvie Vůjtková outlines the main takeaways from the discussion in the following article.
The Governor General of Australia emphasized the value of Polish-Australian relations during his visit to Warsaw
On Monday, August 1, a historic event took place in Polish-Australian relations. The Governor General of Australia came to Warsaw for the first time with an official delegation. During his visit, David Hurley met, among others, with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, President Andrzej Duda and the Speakers of the Sejm and Senate.
Democrats need young blood? Newsom comes to the White House
As the president of the United States left for the Middle East, the governor of California visited the White House. An inconspicuous visit in the absence of the current Joe Biden may herald the growing aspirations of Gavin Newsom. While both President Biden and Vice President Harris have said they will continue to run in two years, the fact remains that Newsom could enter the race for the Democratic Party nomination in 2024.
Warsaw Institute
