Russia Monitor Monthly 7/23
Content
A Game of Thrones in Lubyanka
Only recently has it been announced that General Sergey Korolev would become the first deputy director of the Federal Security Service, or FSB. Now it turns out that a former senior officer charged with bribery has made a deal with investigators. Who will he rat out and will this influence the process of appointing a new director of the agency? Nobody knows.
Estonian Intelligence Report: China’s Actions
The sixth edition of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service annual report, titled “International Security and Estonia,” was published in February 2021. Similarly to last year, the vast majority of the report included the threats posed by Russia. However, towards the end of it, there is also a chapter, which includes concerns about Chinese activities.
Russia Resumes Bombing Campaign in Syria
Recent Russian air raids and the rise in Syrian artillery attacks do not mean the resuming of a land offensive in the last rebel-held province. Agreed on months ago, the balance of power in Syria should not see any shifts. Russia still has to observe its deal with Turkey even though it feels mounting pressure from al-Assad to thwart the rebellion by capturing Idlib province.
Could Putin Launch New “Short Victorious War?” Yes, But…
Tensions are rising in Donbas where three Ukrainian troops were killed in three days. Russian-controlled rebel fighters have rolled out heavy weapons while the Kremlin is taking provoking decisions in occupied Crimea. Many say that new strains between Russia and Ukraine are what Vladimir Putin is looking for, notably over domestic reasons.
Dispute Over Navalny’s Election Plan: No United Opposition In Russia
Russian opposition figure Alexey Navalny never got along with the country’s opposition parties. Their distrust and spats over what strategy to adopt are beneficial for the authorities. The State Duma elections in September will, however, be a challenge for the Kremlin as support for United Russia is dropping.
New Decade of European Innovation?
Worldwide lockdowns halted economic activity in most sectors, leaving many people jobless and with no hope for re-employment. In Europe, these unprecedented circumstances added momentum to the already happening transformation sparked by Brexit. Nevertheless, European start-ups may be not as worried as one may think.
Bulgaria Breaks Up Russian Spy Ring
This is another spying scandal between Bulgaria and Russia. The country’s counterintelligence service and the prosecutor’s office detained six Bulgarians who had access to classified information. One of them is a former high-ranking military intelligence officer accused of being in charge of the spy network. Bulgaria said it was the first time in its recent history that such a ring had been uncovered.
Donbas Ceasefire Comes to Actual End
Tensions go high on the frontline in Donbas while the death toll is rising. Both sides accuse each other of provocations and staging a mass-scale offensive. Concluded back in the summer of 2020 and although formally in force, the truce is actually dead now.
China’s Reaction to the March Meeting of Quad
On March 12, US President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken met virtually with Prime Ministers Narendra Modi of India, Scott Morrison of Australia and Yoshihide Suga of Japan as part of the Quad forum. As a result of the talks, a joint statement of the leaders was published and concerned the future of mutual cooperation as well as plans for its further development.
Russian Wagner Mercenaries Face Legal Action
The Wagner Group, a private military company, has for years served the Kremlin’s interests across the globe – from Ukraine’s Donbas, through Syria, to African states. Its people usually sustain local regimes and shield the business interests of the company’s top sponsor, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Russian Losses After a Decade of Syria War
The number of Russian servicemen who died in Syria during the military operation in this country since September 30, 2015, was 112, said Andrei Krasov, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee. The death toll is surprisingly high as officially only the Russian air forces are involved in the war.
China and Russia Agree to Build Lunar Research Station
On March 9, representatives of the Chinese and Russian space agencies signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the development of research facilities on the Moon and, in particular, creation of the International Scientific Lunar Station. This is yet another partnership between Beijing and Moscow.
Winter Storm in Texas and Green Energy
The unexpected winter storm in Texas, which took place in mid-February 2021, showed what consequences can arise from the lack of proper diversification of energy supply sources. A large part of the state and hundreds of thousands of residents were left without electricity.
Nagorno-Karabakh as Part of Geopolitical Rivalry
The year 2020 brought a turning point in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The flare-up in the fighting between the Azerbaijani military and ethnic Armenian forces of the breakaway region resulted in a peace deal that humiliated Armenia that had to return 75 percent of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan as well as all transit routes from the disputed enclave to Armenia.
Russia’s Intelligence Service Fuels Georgian Turmoil
The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, known by its Russian acronym SVR, delivered an official message about the internal affairs of a third country. “In Washington, dissatisfaction is growing with the actions of the ruling Georgian Dream party, which is declining to submissively carry out American demands,” according to the statement published on the SVR website.
China’s Parliament is Debating on the Future of the Economy
March 5, 2021, marked the opening of the fourth session of the 13th National People’s Congress (NPC) of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), which will approve the Five-Year Plan for 2021-2025 on March 11. In the annual report, Premier Li Keqiang set a modest growth target of 6% and a budget deficit of 3.2%.
Warsaw Institute’s expert interview for Poland In
The difficult situation of the Belarusian opposition after last year’s presidential elections and the lack of trust in the regime among Belarusian society were discussed in an interview with the Warsaw Institute’s expert Jakub Lachert for Poland In.
Belarus Begins Shipping Fuels Through Russian Ports
This is another sign of tightened cooperation between Belarus and Russia, or the higher level of Minsk’s reliance on Moscow. Alexander Lukashenko began shipping his country’s top export commodity, or oil products, through Russian ports after having withdrawn from the more profitable ports in the Baltic States, notably in Lithuania.
Russia Pleased with OPEC+ Decision
Another clash between Saudi Arabia and Russia at the latest meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC countries again ended up with a compromise. Riyadh managed to defend its stance that there should be no risk to boost oil output despite the increase in global oil demand – as this may trigger a decline in crude price.
Donald Trump’s second impeachment trial – how did it happen?
On February 13, Donald Trump became the only US President in history to be impeached twice. However, no precedent was established – the former US president was acquitted. This article will answer the following questions: what is impeachment, what is its genesis, which presidents have been impeached in the past, and what led to the second impeachment.
Warsaw Institute
