Russia Monitor Monthly 7/23
Content
Oil Production in Russia Is Declining
Western sanctions against Russia have stricken the number top source of revenue to the federal budget. As more Western nations ban Russian oil, it is not enough for Russia to open up to new markets, including India’s, to maintain current output levels.
Ex-Moldovan President Dodon Charged
Igor Dodon, a former president of Moldova, is a Putin ally. The criminal case against him, paired with corruption and treason charges, could shake the already fragile political landscape in Chisinau. Targeting a pro-Russian Moldovan party leader at this time might not be incidental. Efforts to neutralize a domestic threat amid provocations in Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria could now be the best solution for Moldova’s pro-Western authorities.
Iran. Assassination of Revolutionary Guard Colonel Hassan Sayad Khodayari
According to the Tasnim news agency, two people on a motorcycle shot Colonel Hassan Sayad Khodayari outside his home on one of Tehran’s best-guarded streets, which also houses Parliament. The attack is reminiscent of other killings in which the perpetrators used motorcycles, especially including those targeted at Iranian nuclear scientists.
AUKUS as a prelude to the expansion of the Anglo-Saxon counteroffensive in the Indo-Pacific?
The agreement concluded in September 2021 by Australia, Great Britain and the United States confirmed that the most important method of ensuring security in the Indo-Pacific are multilateral alliances. AUKUS, however, initiated a new model of cooperation, which is also based on a shared cultural heritage. Steps taken in this direction may give rise to further Anglo-Saxon cooperation that may also include Canada and New Zealand.
A Long War of Attrition in Ukraine, Russia’s Regime Figures Out Public Opinion
Despite mounting pressure from military veterans and experts, the Kremlin is pursuing its strategy in the war against Ukraine. Moscow can afford months of conflict. But the regime––just in case––allows for some critical comments to know what those most interested in waging the war think about it.
Putin’s Illegal Plan for Issuing Russian Passports in Russian-Occupied Regions of Ukraine
Russia simplified the procedure for issuing passports to Ukrainian people living in Russian-occupied regions. This is another piece of evidence for Russian efforts to occupy the Kherson region and most of the Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions to formally add them to the Russian Federation. Russia deploys its administration there and introduces its currency while the Russian army is taking fortified positions in Moscow-occupied southern Ukrainian regions.
The Case of Gerhard Schroeder, Or The German Hypocrisy
Out of a sudden, Germany’s governing parties plan to strip former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder of his office and staff after he maintained and defended his long-standing ties with Russia. He has come under increasing pressure from media outlets and other politicians, notably those of the CDU. Now they all suddenly found outrageous what had been known for years–––the German ex-leader used his reputation to stage lobby for Russian interests.
India Halts Russian Helicopter Deal, U.S. Comes Into Play
India buys the most Russian weapons in the world. According to SIPRI’s data, the country has bought $25 billion worth of military equipment in the last decade, which is four times more than what India spent on U.S.-made hardware. It is key to curb Russia-India cooperation that affects the Indian stance on the war in Ukraine.
Russian Troops Want To Cut Off Ukrainians By Donets River
With their attacks on the town of Popasna, Russian forces possibly seek to cut off the Severodonetsk-based Ukrainian battalion on the Donets River from the rest of the country. Perhaps the Russians would cut Ukrainian forces off between the cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. But what is advantageous to Ukrainian is the geographical location of the northern wing, where the swampy valley of the Donets River is a major obstacle for Russian battalions.
Risks and benefits of Chinese energy investments in Poland
In 2020, the European Commission adopted the so called European Green Deal to face imminent challenges related to climate change. This ambitious goal to transform into a more efficient and green economy has been also a very important aspect of the Polish economic transformation.
Is China an open economy?
The remarkable economic growth of China caused by its economic transition towards a free market economy has brought fundamental changes that have become the subject of many disputes across the world about the potential integration of the Chinese economy with the rest of the world. Going further, some particular events like an accession to the World Trade Organisation, have made China a more open economy.
2022 French Presidential Election
The French presidential election was fundamental to the world order. The Western European power boasts the EU’s biggest army, the world’s largest exclusive economic zone, and nuclear arsenal while its troops are deployed to five continents. So far France has made modest efforts to contain Russia’s imperialist policy while senior French officials often praised cordial ties with the authorities in Moscow. Nevertheless, the Western European country has become a pillar of security for Central and Eastern European countries, including Poland, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Afghan women are losing their rights overnight
In Afghanistan, many restrictions have been imposed on women by the Taliban Ministry since the Taliban took power. Initially, women working in television were required to cover their hair with scarves, while a few days ago, more stringent requirements were imposed, such as covering the entire face.
The United States announces military exercises in the South Pacific
The US military command is decisively responding to the mounting tensions in the South Pacific region. The US military confirms that it is planned to conduct maneuvers at the RAAF military base in the northern part of Western Australia this year.
Impact of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict on the Security of the Middle East
The Middle East region is nowadays considered one of the least stable areas in the world. The main factor contributing to this state of affairs is the issue of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This conflict has not been resolved so far, despite the fact that in the 1990s a peace process was initiated. All mediation and negotiation attempts have stalled due to the complexity of the problem and the conditions that must be met by both sides for a lasting peace. Efforts to create a Palestinian state have continued, but successive conflicts between Palestine and Israel have hampered the peace process. Although both sides have repeatedly declared their willingness to resume peace talks, the criteria they set for each other result in the negotiations continuing to fail.
Energy policy in Poland and Czechia undergoing stress test: Opportunities for cooperation and joint initiatives
On May 4, the distinguished Czech expert Tomáš Petříček, a senior non-resident fellow at the PIIR and former Czech Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Jakub Wiech Polish Lawyer, journalist, and publicist discussed the energy system in Poland and the Czech Republic, prospects for energy transformation in both countries, and the Turów Power Plant Closure.
Turów is an accident at work. Poland and the Czech Republic have more links than divisions
The dispute over Turów undermined Polish-Czech relations. But Warsaw and Prague have more links than separations – such conclusions are drawn, among others from the debate “Closing of Turów power plant. The Polish and Czech view ”, in which I had the pleasure to participate.
Transnistria. What’s going on there?
The Russian attack on Ukraine has been going on for three months now. Currently, the main area of fighting is the eastern part of the country. However, Ukrainian commanders must also bear in mind the western border. All through the so-called Transnistria, i.e. the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic. Approximately 1.5 thousand Russian soldiers are stationed in the internationally unrecognized separatist quasi-state, which inevitably may be alarming. There are many indications that their role should not be overestimated. A small number of troops and the outdated equipment used by them allow at best for subversive activities on a limited scale. However, it is worth being aware of their potential.
After Russian Cutoffs, European Countries Face Gas Conundrum
Gazprom’s halted gas deliveries to Bulgaria and perhaps soon Moldova made eastern Balkan countries look for some alternatives. One could be an increased flow of liquefied natural gas (LNG) through Greek terminals, currently under construction. Another might consist in expanding gas facilities to deliver more gas from Azerbaijan. In addition, Romania says it will produce much gas once it starts extracting from the Black Sea shelf. The easiest and fastest solution is the second of them, though. Greece-based LNG terminals will be operational in a year and a half. It is only in four years that Romania is poised to become a gas exporter.
South Ossetia’s Cumbersome Referendum After Leader Quits
The leader of Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia set July 17 as a date for a referendum on joining Russia. Anatoliy Bibilov, who has been the de facto president of South Ossetia, yet lost to his top challenger who is against a vote on whether or not to join Russia. The sham referendum is a headache for Russia, being an obstacle to rapprochement efforts made by Georgia’s ruling party. If the Kremlin is seeking to please Putin, it could be through claiming some Caucasian regions from Georgia while possibly ripping some lands from Ukraine.
Warsaw Institute
