RUSSIA MONITOR MONTHLY 2/2020
Contents
Russia’s Sechin Arrives in Minsk: “We Need to Continue to Cooperate”
The Belarusian-Russian dispute over the terms of oil supplies has not ended in Sochi on February 7.
German-Russian Company Signs Agreement on Energy Project in Egypt
On the occasion of the recent security conference in Munich and Sergey Lavrov’s visit to Germany, a meeting has been held between the head of Russian diplomacy and his German counterpart.
“January Revolution” Gone Wrong: Putin Continues to Lose Public Support
Another opinion poll conducted by the Levada Centre, an independent research centre, has confirmed the decline in Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings.
Russia Strengthens Its Military Bases in Central Asia
Moscow is increasing its military presence in Central Asian countries. What it all boils down to is air defence.
Russia Puts Pressure on Norway: Svalbard as the Bone of Contention
Moscow has accused Oslo of discriminating against Russian activity on the Svalbard archipelago.
Summit in Sochi: Russia and Belarus Develop New Model for Energy Cooperation
After the recent meeting of the presidents of Russia and Belarus in Sochi, it has become clear that the existing model of cooperation between the two countries is a closed chapter in their common history.
Deputy Chief of Russia’s General Staff Arrested: The FSB Hits the Military
The FSB, Russia’s military counter-intelligence service, has detained the Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, and a court has sentenced him to two months in prison.
Will Nord Stream 2 Be Built At All?
A German newspaper reported that the United States seeks to introduce further restrictions against the gas pipeline from Russia to Germany.
Russia’s Death Toll in Syria Rises After Four FSB Officers Were Killed
Four FSB special forces officers reportedly died on February 1 while performing special tasks in Syria, after having fallen into the hands of militants.
The Collapse of the INF Treaty and the US-China Rivalry
Russia’s noncompliance with the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, or INF Treaty, was the top reason for Donald Trump’s administration to pull out of the deal. Nonetheless, the collapse of the agreement has influenced not only the situation in Europe but also in Asia and the Pacific.
New Gas Pipeline Geopolitics in Central and Eastern Europe
The current gas pipeline system in Central and Eastern Europe started to be built in the 1960s. Apart from commercial purposes, it was intended to make the countries of the Eastern Bloc reliant on energy supplies from the Soviet Union. Just like it was asserted in the Falin-Kvitsinsky doctrine, a Moscow-devised strategy that endeavored to substitute military influence with economic pressure.
Dilemmas of Chinese Presence in Central and Eastern Europe
Chinese presence in Central and Eastern Europe is part of the country’s broader policy toward the whole continent while fitting into Beijing’s possibilities to exert influence on what so far has referred to as the Western world.
Romanian Presidential Vote: Changes or No Change At All?
The past six months brought a few twists and turns in Romanian politics. Incidents like the Social Democratic Party’s (PSD) tied vote in the European elections, a jail sentence for a former leader of this post-communist party, followed by the fall of the cabinet and the establishment of the interim government unleashed what could be referred to as a crisis within the group’s ranks.
Sweden Faces the Russian Threat in the Baltic Sea
By beefing up its military presence in the exclave of Kaliningrad, flying provocative air patrols and by building next legs of the Nord Stream energy pipeline, Russia undermines the security of other countries in the Baltic region. Also, Moscow could take advantage of the pipeline’s energy infrastructure to take subversive actions in the Baltic Sea.
Who Will Bear the Banner of the 5G Revolution?
This simultaneously provides a range of never-before-seen opportunities and poses a threat to security, morphing into an issue that has ignited political rows around the world.
Poland’s 2019 Parliamentary Election
Held on October 13, 2019, Poland’s general election is first and foremost a success of democracy, as exemplified by crowds rushing to polling stations and a massive rise in voter turnout.
Russia in Africa: Weapons, Mercenaries, Spin Doctors.
The Kremlin eyes the African continent as yet another arena of a massive clash with the West, as it did under the Cold War reality. But their competition has now been of a rather practical and economic nature, pushing ideologies somewhere to the margin. Also, Moscow has enjoyed the positive image it had retained in Africa back from the Soviet times.
What’s Next For Turkey’s NATO Membership After S-400 Purchase?
Turkey has sealed a military deal with Russia, receiving the first parts of the Russian-made S-400 missile defense systems in the summer of 2019. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not bow to pressure from the United States, and Ankara’s determination to acquire Russian-built weaponry will enrage both Washington and its NATO peers.
Russia-Ukraine Prisoner Exchange: Zelensky Caught Into Russian Trap
An actual prisoner swap between Ukraine and Russia is a PR success of Ukraine’s incumbent leader Volodymyr Zelensky, yet it is his Russian counterpart who won politically. The negotiating process of the prisoner exchange, how it was performed and the names of those who were meant to be freed eventually shed a negative spotlight on Ukraine.
Summing up 10 Years of the Eastern Partnership
May 2019 marked ten years since the Eastern Partnership was launched as a platform for a mutual dialogue between the European Union and its Eastern neighbors while providing a roadmap for comprehensive actions to be undertaken. Included as part of the forum are Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine.
Warsaw Institute
