Russia Monitor Monthly 1/23
Content
Ukraine’s Two Front Lines: Which One’s More Important?
Russia’s war with Ukraine has entered a phase of rivalry that will force the enemy on the side to accept the location and terms of the next major armed confrontation. Russian forces are making effort to target Ukrainian positions in Donbas while the Ukrainian army has announced a counteroffensive in the Kherson region, possibly to dissuade the enemy from the idea of taking Donbas now when forces are needed along the southern front.
Russia’s Rosneft Starts Construction Of Vostok Oil
Russian energy giant Rosneft said it has started construction of an Arctic oil terminal at the Bukhta Sever port, part of its huge Vostok Oil project, aimed at facilitating the development of the Northern Sea Route. The project aims to show to what extent the Russian oil sector may resist Western punitive measures.
The Philippines Cancels Russian Helicopter Deal Over Potential Sanctions
The Russian invasion of Ukraine scrapped Moscow’s plans to sell its weaponry abroad. Russian forces fall to Ukrainian troops and their Western-made military equipment. In addition, countries seeking to purchase Russian weapons may face U.S. Congress sanctions.
State Duma Adopts Harsher Treason Penalties
Amendments to the Russian criminal code further engulf the country in a climate of fear, giving the regime tools to persecute journalists and pundits.
Lavrov Visit To Africa As An Effort To Blame Western Countries
Russian Foreign Ministry Sergey Lavrov went on an African tour that includes Egypt, Congo, Uganda, and Ethiopia, aimed at courting these countries to get more friends and convincing them that Russia was not responsible for the food crisis.
Japan Warns Of China-Russia Alliance In Annual Defense Paper
In its annual white paper, the Japanese defense ministry voiced concern about Chinese and Russian belligerent activities worldwide. Worryingly for Japan, Russia could look to “strengthen its relationship with China.” Like many Western countries, Japan blacklisted Russia but is unlikely to quit the Sakhalin-2 oil and gas project for energy reasons.
TotalEnergies And Equinor Quit Russia’s Kharyaga Oil Project
French and Norwegian oil majors TotalEnergies and Equinor quit the Kharyaga oil field in Russia, with their combined 50 percent share to be divested to Zarubezhneft, a state-run energy company.
Moscow Again Plays Transnistria Card
Moldova has refrained from outright condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with its pro-Western government trying not to tease Kremlin officials. This, however, is unlikely to prevent belligerent Russian behavior. An array of provocations in Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria was the first warning and both Ukraine and Moldova were accused of them. Now pro-Russian separatists say they want to join Russia, which is a tough nut to crack for the authorities in Chisinau. What it seems is that playing a neutral card, instead of backing Ukraine and filing for NATO membership, is a big mistake as the authorities in Moldova see a drop in popularity ratings. What might be behind Moldova’s policy is its full reliance on Russian gas and scarce military capabilities.
Tunisia’s Constitutional Crisis – The 25th of July 2022
The 25th of July 2022, celebrates the national emblematic day of Tunisia’s Republic. This Monday the 25th of July 2022, is once again marked as a critical date and possibly as a turning point, almost a decade after the introduction of Tunisia’s renewed Constitution back in 2014. Voting polls on a constitutional referendum closed at around 23:00 CET on the same day. The result of which will determine whether Tunisia will adopt a new Constitution by the hand of president Kais Saied.
The pipeline that could help Slovakia become less dependent on Russian gas with Polish help
Dependence on Russian gas is proving to be a headache for Eastern European countries. Slovakia is one of the most affected: the Slavic country imports approximately 87% of its natural gas and two-thirds of its oil from Russia, according to Euroactiv. For that reason, Slovakia has repeatedly rejected the new package of sanctions on Russia, because it includes an embargo on Russian oil.
The Iranian-Russian alliance and Turkey taking care of its interests in the region
As part of the Astana Process Summit, a three-country meeting on Syria took place. The Turkish, Russian and Iranian sides held talks in the bilateral and trilateral formats and discussed key issues. Iran and Syria turned out to be the biggest winners of meetings at the level of heads of state. Due to the steps taken to end the civil war in Syria, military intervention in Syria was not allowed. Iran has entered into new business relations with Russia that will allow the development of their energy infrastructure. An unofficial alliance was formed between the two countries.
What to expect from the upcoming extraordinary EU Council on Energy of 2022?
Jozef Sikela, the Czech Minister of Industry and Trade has called for an extraordinary EU Council on Energy to be held on the 26th of July 2022. The goal of the summit is to discuss gas deliveries to the European Union, as well as possible solidarity mechanisms amongst member states to cope with the reduced gas supplies.
China Faces Indian Competition For Russian Oil
It seems that the time when Russia sold large amounts of crude to China is slowly coming to an end. But Moscow has little cause for concern as another Asian giant is next to claim Russian crude supplies.
Hungary Bets On Russia, Not Only For Energy Supplies
The Hungarian policy that favors Moscow is aimed at Orban’s retaining power amid a worsening economic situation in the country. This is why the Hungarian leader is accusing Western nations and Ukraine of war and austerity. Orban is going to war with Brussels while playing a Hungarian-speaking community in Romania’s Transylvania, seeking friendly ties with Russia to avoid the looming energy disaster. But Orban’s policy will eventually isolate his country, with its staunch allies like Poland turning back. Possibly those that will help Hungary will be just Serbia or other Russian allies.
Battle Of Kherson Is Key For Russian-Controlled Southern Ukraine
Ukrainian counterattacks had pushed Russian forces to the east on the easter bank of the Dnipro while Ukrainian forces managed to take back several towns in the Kherson region. In Russian-controlled Kherson, Ukrainian artillery strikes damaged facilities, thus worsening the Russian military standing on the western bank of the Dnipro. Kyiv has announced a major offensive in the country’s south––even if failed, pushing Russian troops to Crimea and eastwards or capturing Kherson is a great achievement for Ukraine while a political and military defeat for Russia.
Domesticating chip production. The silicon nationalism continues
The semiconductors’ industry has prominently risen given the increased application of smart chips in electronics. Semiconductor chips power the basic electronics that people use every day such as smartphones, laptops, and cars. At their standard price, a single chip may cost as much as $10 cents. However, this single chip, as the most vital component of a circuit board, can impact the production of a whole industry.
Russia’s Lavrov Confirms Moscow’s Expanded War Goals
It has been on since months that Russia could roll out a plan to annex the two “people’s republics,” with Moscow’s objectives extending into the south of Ukraine. According to many sources, Russia would prepare to hold fake plebiscites while Kremlin officials bragged about better living standards in the Russian-occupied regions. What Lavrov said about “different geography” could mean that these regions could indeed hold sham referendums on September 11.
Comparing Western and Russian arms exports to the Middle East and North Africa
As the war in Ukraine goes on, the tensions between Russia and the West could enter a new phase of geopolitical rivalry on a global level. One region of great importance both for the West and Russia are the countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and one area of contest are arms exports.
Russia Forms “Ethnic” Battalions Deployed In Ukraine
The Kremlin is looking for new troops in a method that does not utilize mandatory military service. The Russian leadership is reluctant to practice conscription for ethnic Russian Slavs, hence continuous efforts how to draw troops into the Russian war.
Rosneft’s Sechin Brags About Arctic Oil Discovery
Russian energy major Rosneft claims to have discovered an 82-million-ton oil field in the Pechora Sea in the Arctic. While many oil analysts speculate that Russia lacks the needed technology to develop offshore Arctic fields, Rosneft boss Igor Sechin assures the country can boost output. The CEO of Rosneft says sanctions are illegal and Western countries will be hit more with a Russian oil embargo.
Warsaw Institute
